The highly anticipated 2025 Formula 1 season is finally here! With car development converging in this final year under the current regulations the season promises to be one of the closest in recent history, .
Adding to the excitement are eight new driver pairings, including the headline move of seven-time World Champion Lewis Hamilton to Scuderia Ferrari alongside Charles Leclerc. With our 2024 head-to-head analysis complete, we now turn our attention to how these fresh pairings stack up for 2025.
Will the 2025 season top 2012 – the “best season of all time” based on our eight key factors (full story here)? We can’t wait to find out!
For a full description of the six H2H factors check out our H2H Explanatory Notes.
McLaren
McLaren emerged as the fastest team toward the end of the 2024 season, and with Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri entering their third year together, they boast one of the strongest driver lineups for 2025.
Piastri’s career has been remarkable, winning back-to-back F3 and F2 titles in 2020 and 2021. His rookie year with McLaren in 2023 saw him secure podiums in Japan and Qatar, though he was decisively beaten by Norris in their head-to-head (6:0). In 2024, the Australian improved, securing two race wins but again losing 6:0 to Norris as the radar chart below shows. His biggest area for improvement? Qualifying — where he trailed 4:20 last season.
Norris, who also dominated Daniel Ricciardo 6:0 in 2022, has consistently proven his strength against highly-rated teammates. Based on those results and the pedigree of his two Australian teammates it’s clear to see why Lando is considered one of the key title challengers in 2025.
Ferrari
Lewis Hamilton’s move to Ferrari alongside Charles Leclerc is arguably the most highly anticipated driver pairing since Ayrton Senna joined Alain Prost at McLaren in 1988. After 12 seasons and six titles with Mercedes, Hamilton’s transition to Ferrari comes with plenty of excitement – and uncertainty.
Since his controversial 2021 title loss to Max Verstappen, Hamilton has endured three inconsistent seasons. In 2022, he failed to win a race and lost 1:5 in our head-to-head against George Russell. He bounced back in 2023 with a 5:1 win over Russell, but still failed to secure a victory. In 2024, Mercedes improved, with both drivers winning two races, but Hamilton lost the season-long head-to-head battle 1:4 (plus one draw). His most concerning weakness? Qualifying. The radar chart below shows Lewis out-qualified George in just 5 of 24 races.
Hamilton fans will hope his one-lap pace struggles were down to Mercedes’ car characteristics rather than personal decline, as he’ll need his best qualifying form to challenge Leclerc – arguably the fastest driver on the grid over a single lap.
Meanwhile, Charles Leclerc has consistently outperformed former teammate Carlos Sainz, winning their head-to-head battles in all four seasons together. Sainz claimed memorable victories with Ferrari but only managed 5 factor wins in the total 24 factors available over their four years together, compared to Leclerc’s dominant 17 (plus two draws). In 2024, Sainz secured two victories but won just one of our six performance factors against Leclerc.
Ferrari ended 2024 with strong pace, and with arguably the best driver pairing on the grid in 2025, they have a solid shot at securing their first Drivers’ Championship since Kimi Räikkönen in 2007. With new regulations looming in 2026, 2025 might be Hamilton’s best chance to claim an eighth world title – but he’ll have to get past a quick and hungry teammate.
Red Bull Racing
Four-time champion Max Verstappen will have a new teammate in 2025: Liam Lawson. Though Lawson competed in six races for RB F1 last year, he is one of six rookies making their full-season debut this year.
Verstappen’s dominance over his teammates has been absolute. The last time he lost a single head-to-head factor against a teammate was back in 2017 when Daniel Ricciardo was at Red Bull. Lawson faces a monumental challenge, especially considering he lost 1:5 to Yuki Tsunoda in their six races together last year.
However, Lawson proved his racing mettle in 2024, going wheel-to-wheel with world champions like Fernando Alonso. Red Bull clearly saw enough potential to promote him, and while it’s unlikely he’ll challenge Verstappen, the team will hope he can at least provide stronger points support for the Constructors Championship than Sergio Perez did last year.
Mercedes
Mercedes showed signs of resurgence in 2024, particularly in the latter part of the season. George Russell had a strong campaign, winning two races and beating Hamilton 4:1 (with one draw) in our head-to-head metrics. Now, for the first time, Russell is the clear team leader, partnering 18-year-old rookie Kimi Antonelli. If Mercedes remain toward the front of the grid the Briton will be in a strong position to potentially challenge for the title.
Antonelli, despite winning multiple lower formula titles, finished only sixth in the 2024 F2 Championship – well behind fellow F1 rookies Bortoleto and Hadjar. Mercedes has placed immense trust (and pressure) on the young Italian, skipping a traditional F2-to-F1 customer team transition and instead thrusting him straight into the works team. If Mercedes remains competitive, Antonelli must quickly adapt, deliver consistent points, and refine his racecraft.
Aston Martin
Like McLaren, Aston Martin retains its 2024 driver lineup, with Fernando Alonso and Lance Stroll entering their third season together.
Over the past two years, Alonso has dominated their head-to-head battles, winning 6:0 in both 2023 and 2024. However, Aston Martin’s form dipped last season—after scoring multiple podiums in 2023, their best result in 2024 was fifth for Alonso and sixth for Stroll.
Based on their previous two years together it’s difficult to see Lance Stroll getting close to the seemingly ageless Fernando Alonso in their head to head battle this year. With Adrian Newey joining the team, Aston Martin’s long-term competitiveness looks promising, but in the short term, Stroll’s struggles against Alonso raise questions. After signing Newey it must be on Laurence Stroll’s agenda to finally equip Aston Martin with two top-tier drivers if he is really serious about bringing this famous marque to the top of Formula 1.
Alpine
The nationalistic stars aligned in 2023 when Pierre Gasly joined Esteban Ocon for an all French lineup for Alpine. The matchup had commentators excited as the two had been great friends in their early karting careers but their relationship had soured during intervening years which set up an interesting intra-team rivalry.
In 2023 the newcomer Gasly outpaced Ocon to win their head to head 4:1 (and one draw). In 2024 the results were reversed with Esteban getting the upper hand 4:2 over Pierre though as the radar chart shows the season was extremely close between the two.
In 2025 Ocon moves to Haas and rookie Jack Doohan will join Gasly at Alpine. Alpine were relatively strong toward the end of 2024 and will be hoping to maintain that momentum into 2025 to at least fight for fifth place or “best of the rest” in the Championship.
Jack Doohan will be under pressure from the off with the more experienced Franco Colapinto signed as Alpine’s reserve driver. Doohan was third in the 2023 F2 Championship and waited patiently as reserve driver in 2024. If the Alpine is competitive Doohan will be extremely motivated to maximise the teams points with Gasly in what will likely be an very tight season and fight for fifth place or higher.
Haas
Haas is one of only two teams on the grid with two new drivers in 2025. As is the case with Kick Sauber the 2025 teammates include an experienced campaigner alongside a rookie.
Esteban Ocon is the only driver to have raced for Haas to have ever won a race in Formula 1 (2021 Hungarian Grand Prix). Debuting half way through the 2016 season Ocon now has seven full years experience on the grid (he was without a drive in 2019) though he didn’t beat a teammate in a head to head battle until 2022 when he won a tight battle with Fernando Alonso 3:2 (and one draw) at Alpine. Haas will be relying on Ocon’s proven speed and race winning ability to help develop the team and guide his rookie teammate Oliver Bearman.
Ollie Bearman burst onto the Formula 1 scene at the 2024 Saudi Arabian Grand Prix when he replaced the ill Carlos Sainz at Ferrari. At only 18 years of age Bearman secured seventh in the race and in the process held off both Lando Norris and Lewis Hamilton in the closing stages. The young Brit finished third in the 2022 F3 Championship and sixth in the 2023 F2 title race and so perhaps doesn’t have the pedigree of some other junior formula title winners. Even so his race craft and ability to deal with the pressure of driving a race for Ferrari in 2024 showed great potential.
Racing Bulls
This will be the third driver pairing within 12 months at Red Bull’s sister team though through all the changes there has been one consistent factor – Yuki Tsunoda. Tsunoda has been with the team since his debut in 2021 and though much maligned at times the diminutive Japanese driver arguably showed enough in 2023 and 2024 to warrant a call up to Red Bull Racing.
Daniel Ricciardo and Liam Lawson both partnered Yuki in 2024 and though both antipodeans are highly rated it was Tsunoda who came out on top. Yuki beat Ricciardo 5:1 in their 18 races together and then beat Lawson 5:1 in their 6 races together including 6:0 in qualifying. As can be seen from the radar chart below Yuki was well in front of Liam (albeit based on a relatively small sample size of races) yet it was the New Zealander that got the nod to step up to the Red Bull factory team.
In 2025 Tsnoda will team up with rookie Isack Hadjar who finished second in the F2 Championship in 2024. If Yuki can be equally as dominant against his latest teammate it would surely put Red Bull under pressure to finally give the popular Japanese a shot against Max Verstappen in 2026.
Williams
It feels like Williams may finally be in a position to move further up the grid in 2025. James Vowles has seemingly been putting the systems in place to incrementally improve the team’s performance with the signing of Carlos Sainz the most obvious improvement for 2025.
Since Alex Albon joined the team in 2022 he has systematically dismantled his teammates in their head to head matchups. Albon beat Nicholas Latifi 5:0 (and one draw) in 2022 then followed up by beating Logan Sargeant 6:0 the year after. Again Alex dominated Logan 6:0 in 2024 with the level of domination evident from the radar graph below. When Sargeant was dropped after 14 races it was Albon again who beat the incoming Franco Colapinto 5:1.
Like a number of drivers before him Alex Albon was perhaps recruited to Red Bull too early in his career and then dumped too soon. Albon appears to have found a solid home at Williams and with four time GP winner Sainz now in the garage next door the driver pieces are in place for Williams to capitalise on an improving car.
Kick Sauber
With two new drivers for 2025 this is a big year for Sauber. The experienced Nico Hulkenberg will partner F2 Champion Gabriel Bortoleto in the final year before the team becomes the works Audi entry in 2026.
Sauber finished last in the standings in 2024 with both Valtteri Bottas and Zhou Guanyu having inconsistent years. The radar chart below shows just how inconsistent a pairing the two were for although Zhou beat Valtteri 4:2 it was the Finn who dominated 21:3 in qualifying.
Audi will be hoping the team at least shows consistency this year and will no doubt be keenly interested to see how the much hyped rookie Brazilian matches up against the wily Hulkenberg. The German is seemingly still at the top of his game after beating former teammate Kevin Magnussen 5:1 in 2024 and 6:0 in 2023. Once Bortoleto finds his feat this matchup will surely be one to watch.
Time to Race!
With exciting new pairings and a likely further convergence in car performance, 2025 is shaping up to be one of the most competitive seasons in recent memory.
As always, F1Bytes will update our six key head-to-head factors after each race — so stay tuned for all the latest driver battle insights!