The 2018 Formula 1 season is finally upon us. To coincide with the first race of the season F1 Bytes is introducing Buckle Up F1, a package of facts and stats to prepare you with everything you need to know to get the most out of the upcoming race. We intend to produce this package ahead of each race in 2018.
To kick things off, check out the F1 Bytes Race Map for last year’s Australian Grand Prix below. See here for some info on how to interpret the map. It gives you a quick overview of last year’s race activity and helps to set the scene for what we might have in store for us this year. If the map has you scratching your head, read on. We hope to answer all your questions about the Australian GP below.
FAST FACTS
- 2018 will be the 34th Australian Grand Prix
- 11 races were held in Adelaide between 1985 and 1995
- In each year it was the season finale
- 2018 will be the 23rd race held at Melbourne’s Albert Park
- It has been the opening race of the season since 1996 (except for 2006 and 2010)
- Last year’s podium places:
- 1st. Sebastian Vettel (Ferrari)
- 2nd Lewis Hamilton (Mercedes)
- 3rd Valtteri Bottas (Mercedes)
- Start times have varied over the years and this year is no exception:
- New start time 4:10pm AEDT (UTC + 11)
- All stats that follow relate to Melbourne’s Albert Park circuit (Adelaide GP data is not included)
- F1 Bytes HQ is just a stone’s throw away, on Sydney’s Northern Beaches!
THE WINNER IN MELBOURNE PREDICTS THE CHAMPIONSHIP (SOMETIMES…)
Last year one of our readers pointed out that the winner of the opening race of the season goes on to win the Championship 50% of the time. We checked the figures and they were almost bang on: as of 2017 the opening race predicts the Championship with 48.5% accuracy.
But if we focus just on the 22 seasons where the opening race was held at Albert Park then the predictive accuracy jumps to a whopping 60%! That’s right, 6 times out of ten the winner in Melbourne goes on to win the Championship – this is a race you want to win!
PODIUMS
- Michael Schumacher has had the most success in Melbourne with four wins
- Jensen Button has the second highest tally at three
- Five other drivers have managed the top step twice: Vettel, Raikonnen, Rosberg, Hamilton and Coulthard
The 2018 drivers have achieved the following podium places in Melbourne.
 |
 |
 |
| 1st | ||
| 2nd | Vettel (2x) | |
| Hamilton (3x) | Räikkönen (2x) | 3rd |
| Alonso (2x) | Hamilton (2x) | Vettel (3x) |
| Vettel (1x) | Alonso (1x) | Räikkönen (2x) |
| Räikkönen (1x) | Hamilton (2x) | |
| Magnussen (1x) | Alonso (2x) | |
| Bottas (1x) |
LAP RECORDS
The table below shows the quickest laps in qualifying and during the race for both 2017 and over the full history at Albert Park.
| Qualifying | Race | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 1:22.188 (HAM) | 1:26.538 (RAI) | -0:04.350 |
| Record | 1:22.188 (2017 HAM) | 1:24.125 (2004 MSC) | -0:01.937 |
As we have previously discussed there were 11 lap records set in 2017 and Melbourne was one of them. But as you can see the fastest race lap last year was over 4 seconds slower than qualifying. Amazingly the record for fastest race lap was set by Michael Schumacher way back in 2004!
We’ll take a closer look at the evolution of quali v race pace in a future post.
QUALIFYING
- HAM, VET and RIC were the top points scorers for the 2017 season and each have a favourable qualifying track bias in Melbourne
- Chili Sainz has the largest qualifying track bias (3.8 grid places)
- Both Red Bull drivers are yet to land a pole at Albert Park
- Bottas qualified 3rd last year versus a career average of 9.2 illusrating the massive leap his career has taken with Mercedes
- He finished the 2017 season with two consecutive poles. Can he back it up in Melbourne 2018?
- Alonso qualified five places lower than his career average in Melbourne last year. Will the new Renault power unit give the two time World Champion the opportunity to challenge for another title this year?
| Melbourne | Career | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Driver | 2017 | Best | Ave | Starts | Best | Ave | Starts | Bias |
| HAM | 1 | 1 | 3.7 | 11 | 1 | 3.8 | 208 | -0.1 |
| VET | 2 | 1 | 4.4 | 10 | 1 | 4.9 | 198 | -0.5 |
| BOT | 3 | 3 | 9.2 | 5 | 1 | 7.7 | 98 | 1.5 |
| RAI | 4 | 1 | 8.8 | 13 | 1 | 6.3 | 242 | 2.5 |
| RIC | 10 | 2 | 8.5 | 6 | 1 | 9.3 | 128 | -0.8 |
| VER | 5 | 5 | 7.3 | 3 | 2 | 7.4 | 60 | -0.1 |
| PER | 11 | 9 | 13.7 | 7 | 2 | 11.0 | 135 | 2.7 |
| OCO | 14 | 14 | 14 | 1 | 5 | 13.0 | 28 | 1 |
| SAI | 8 | 7 | 7.7 | 3 | 5 | 11.5 | 59 | -3.8 |
| HUL | 12 | 7 | 11.1 | 7 | 1 | 10.0 | 136 | 1.1 |
| STR | 19 | 19 | 19 | 1 | 4 | 14.9 | 20 | 4.1 |
| GRO | 6 | 3 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 11.6 | 124 | -0.6 |
| MAG | 17 | 4 | 13.5 | 4 | 4 | 13.6 | 60 | -0.1 |
| ALO | 13 | 2 | 8 | 14 | 1 | 7.5 | 276 | 0.5 |
| VAN | 18 | 18 | 18 | 1 | 7 | 13.4 | 21 | 4.6 |
| GAS | – | – | – | – | 15 | 16.5 | 4 | – |
| ERI | 15 | 15 | 16.8 | 4 | 10 | 17.9 | 75 | -1.1 |
| HAR | – | – | – | – | 13 | 16.5 | 4 | – |
HOW IMPORTANT IS QUALIFYING?
The following chart shows the percentage of wins that have occurred from each grid position in Melbourne and how this compares to the average for all circuits during the same seasons.
So even though a win in Melbourne predicts the Championship with 60% accuracy, landing pole position is not quite as critical as you might think. Putting the car on front row is less important in Melbourne than the average for all tracks.
The most impressive win in Melbourne from a driver starting beyond the 3rd row of the starting grid was in 2003 – David Coulthard secured his last ever F1 victory after starting way back in 11th place!
RACE RESULT
- The local boy Dan Ricciardo has been strong in Melbourne with a 2 place track bias
- But his luck has been poor only finishing in 3 of his 6 starts with a top place of 4th
- Ricciardo actually celebrated 2nd place in 2014 before he was (controversially) disqualified for breaching the fuel flow limit
- Kevin Magnussen slotted into the vacated 2nd place after Ricciardo’s departure – not bad for his first race in F1! That result together with the fact that he has only finished two races In Melbourne explains his high track bias
- Similarly Marcus Erricson has the highest track bias in the field but note that he has only finished one race in Australia with a relatively high 8th position compared to his career average
- In fact all drivers with a favourable track bias of over 1.5 places have a poor record for finishing races in Melbourne
- This may suggest pushing too hard here has often led to either mechanical issues or driver error?
| Melbourne | Career | Track | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Driver | 2017 | Best | Ave | Sts | %Fin | Best | Ave | Sts | %Fin | Bias |
| HAM | 2 | 1 | 2.8 | 11 | 82 | 1 | 3.6 | 208 | 89 | -0.8 |
| VET | 1 | 1 | 3.7 | 10 | 70 | 1 | 3.9 | 199 | 86 | -0.2 |
| BOT | 3 | 3 | 7.5 | 5 | 80 | 1 | 7.4 | 98 | 92 | 0.1 |
| RAI | 4 | 1 | 5.4 | 15 | 80 | 1 | 5.0 | 273 | 79 | 0.4 |
| RIC | – | 4 | 6.3 | 6 | 50 | 1 | 8.3 | 129 | 86 | -2 |
| VER | 5 | 5 | 7.5 | 3 | 67 | 1 | 6.3 | 60 | 77 | 1.2 |
| PER | 7 | 7 | 9.8 | 7 | 86 | 2 | 9.1 | 136 | 88 | 0.7 |
| OCO | 10 | 10 | 10 | 1 | 100 | 5 | 10.9 | 29 | 97 | -0.9 |
| SAI | 8 | 8 | 8.7 | 3 | 100 | 4 | 9.7 | 60 | 68 | -1 |
| HUL | 11 | 6 | 7.8 | 7 | 57 | 4 | 9.6 | 137 | 81 | -1.8 |
| STR | – | – | – | 1 | 0 | 3 | 11.2 | 20 | 80 | – |
| GRO | – | 6 | 8 | 6 | 33 | 2 | 10.3 | 124 | 74 | -2.3 |
| MAG | – | 2 | 7 | 4 | 50 | 2 | 11.6 | 61 | 82 | -4.6 |
| ALO | – | 1 | 4.3 | 15 | 87 | 1 | 5.6 | 293 | 82 | -1.3 |
| VAN | 13 | 13 | 13 | 1 | 100 | 7 | 11.6 | 21 | 71 | 1.4 |
| GAS | – | – | – | – | – | 12 | 13.6 | 5 | 100 | – |
| ERI | – | 8 | 8 | 4 | 25 | 8 | 14.5 | 76 | 75 | -6.5 |
| HAR | – | – | – | – | – | 13 | 14.0 | 4 | 50 | – |
OVERTAKES
Melbourne has not been a great circuit historically when it comes to overtakes. As we discussed here the new regulations introduced last year to increase speeds had an unfortunate dark side. The turbulent air left in the wake of the current F1 cars makes following them difficult. This can negatively impact opportunities for overtaking.
This was certainly borne out in Melbourne last year with just 2 overtaking maneouvres completed based on our overtake criteria. Thankfully it appears the FIA are taking this problem seriously. It was recently announced that a third DRS zone will be introduced for the first time at Albert Park for 2018. Fingers crossed that this will help pave the way for a little more competitive action in Melbourne this year!
PITSTOPS
- One stop was the dominant strategy last year although four drivers had two pit stops
- Pit stops occurred on lap 19 on average for drivers making just one stop
- Stoffel Vandoorne was the earliest of the one stoppers pitting on lap 9
- Kimi Raikonnen was the latest of the one stoppers pitting on lap 26
- The fastest pit stop (measured from pit entry to pit exit) was Valterri Bottas for Mercedes at 21.44 seconds
RETIREMENTS
- Only 65% of cars finished the 2017 Melbourne Grand Prix
- This was the second lowest number of cars to finish a race in 2017 after Singapore on 60%
TRACK SPEED AND CORNERS
- The average speed achieved over the entire race by the winning driver in 2017 was 215.4km/h
- This made Melbourne the 5th fastest circuit on the calendar in terms of average lap speed
- Albert Park has a total of 16 turns, just under the average of 16.75 for circuits in the 2017 calendar
ROLL ON 2018…
It’s generally difficult to draw too many conclusions regarding ultimate performance from pre-season testing. What does seem clear is that the mid pack looks to be extremely tight!
We’re sure most F1 fans would agree that the more constructors fighting for wins and the title the better. Both Ferrari and Red Bull had a solid test in Barcelona indicating that they both may be able to challenge Mercedes in 2018. Perhaps an even bigger unknown is how close Renault and the “new” McLaren will be to the sharp end? In Melbourne all will be revealed…
Buckle up – it’s time to go racing!!