Buckle Up F1: Everything you need to know ahead of the 2018 Bahrain Grand Prix
Following victory in Melbourne Seb Vettel and the Ferrari team will be looking to consolidate their lead as we head to Bahrain for round two of the 2018 Championship. Mercedes will no doubt have tweaked their code to fix the software glitch that supposedly cost them the victory and will be keen to level the scores. Meanwhile we can safely assume that the boys at Haas have had one or two pitstop practice sessions since race day in Melbourne and will be keen convert their newfound pace into actual championship points this time around.
Buckle Up – It’s time for the Bahrain Formula 1 Grand Prix…
WHAT HAPPENED LAST YEAR IN BAHRAIN?
As we’ve highlighted in the 2017 RaceMap above Vettel took his 44th F1 victory in Bahrain last year in a cool, calculated performance after starting from 3rd on the grid
Sergio Perez also had an outstanding race. After starting 18th on the grid he made up 5 places on the opening lap and finished the race in 7th position (with a little help from the safety car!)
FAST FACTS
2018 will be the 14th race at the circuit after the 2011 race was cancelled due to domestic protests
Since the first race in 2004 Bahrain has generally been the third race of the season but this year swaps places with the Chinese GP
The winner of the opening race in Melbourne has gone on to win the next race on 8 occasions. Each and every time this has occurred the driver has gone on to win the Championship. Seb Vettel will be pumped to follow up!
Start time for the race is 6.10pm local time (GMT+3)
PODIUMS
Both Sebastian Vettel and Fernando Alonso have managed the top step three times in Bahrain. The last win for Seb was in 2017 but Fernando last won way back in 2010 – both wins coming in Ferraris
Massa and Hamilton have each had two wins here
Schumacher, Rosberg and Button have also had a win each
Of the current drivers Kimi Raikkonen has finished on the podium 8 times but is yet to taste victory. Can the Kimster break his drought in 2018?
The 2018 Drivers have achieved the following podium places in Bahrain:
1st
2nd
Vettel (3x)
Räikkönen (5x)
Alonso (3x)
3rd
Hamilton (2x)
Hamilton (2x)
Räikkönen (3x)
Vettel (1x)
Hamilton (2x)
Grosjean (2x)
Pérez (1x)
Bottas (1x)
LAP RECORDS
Qualifying
Race
Difference
2017
1:28.769 (BOT)
1:32.798 (HAM)
-0:04.029
Record
1:28.769 (2017 BOT)
1:30.252 (2004 MSC)
-0:01.483
Just like Melbourne in 2017 qualifying in Bahrain last year saw a new lap record set. But the fastest lap in the race was again over 4 seconds slower than Bottas’ pole time. And the similarity with Melbourne doesn’t end there – the lap record for a race lap is again held by one M Schumacher from his 2004 title winning year with Ferrari!
In 2004 Michael’s Quali time was only 0.113 of a second less than his race lap record. This compares to just over 4 seconds difference in 2017. In Melbourne this year the difference between Hamilton’s record pole lap and Ricciardo’s fastest race lap was nearly 5 seconds! Will the drivers be able to push more in the race at Sakhir where overtaking has traditionally been easier than in Australia?
QUALIFYING
The largest favourable qualifying track bias goes to Daniel Ricciardo. With 6 starts in Bahrain the Honey Badger averages 3 places better in Bahrain qualifying than his overall career average. With a strong looking Red Bull Ricciardo could be one to watch on Saturday.
At the other end of the spectrum Kimi Raikkonen has an unfavourable quali track bias of 2.6 places. With 8 podiums but no wins the Ice Man needs to turn this quali form around to be able to maximise his Sunday.
Bahrain International Circuit
Career
Driver
2017
Best
Ave
Starts
Best
Ave
Starts
Bias
HAM
2
1
2.6
10
1
3.8
209
-1.2
VET
3
1
5
9
1
4.9
199
0.1
BOT
1
1
6.2
5
1
7.7
99
-1.5
RAI
5
3
8.9
12
1
6.3
243
2.6
RIC
4
3
6.3
6
1
9.3
129
-3
VER
6
6
10.3
3
2
7.4
61
2.9
PER
18
5
12
6
2
11.1
136
0.9
OCO
14
14
14
1
5
13.1
29
0.9
SAI
16
9
12
3
5
11.5
60
0.5
HUL
7
7
10.7
7
1
10.0
137
0.7
STR
12
12
12
1
4
14.9
21
-2.9
GRO
9
7
10.3
6
2
11.6
125
-1.3
MAG
20
9
16
3
4
13.5
61
2.5
ALO
15
1
8.1
12
1
7.5
277
0.6
VAN
17
12
14.5
2
7
13.3
22
1.2
GAS
–
–
–
–
15
17.2
5
–
ERI
19
13
17.5
4
10
17.9
76
-0.4
HAR
–
–
–
–
13
16.4
5
–
HOW IMPORTANT IS QUALIFYING?
The following chart shows the percentage of wins that have occurred from each grid position in Bahrain and how this compares to the average for all circuits over the 13 seasons since Bahrain was added to the Calendar.
One stark difference to the season opener in Australia is that no one has ever won the Bahrain GP from lower than 4th on the grid! Granted the GP has been running for 10 years less than Melbourne but this is still a telling stat.
Also, while starting on the first two rows has been critical surprisingly less than 40% of winners have started from pole. This isn’t due to drivers starting on pole having retired – the pole position holder has always finished the race in Bahrain. Nor is it due to pole not being on the best driving line into the first corner. 9 out of 13 pole position holders have led the race after the end of the first lap. Something else is afoot.
As we discuss below the Bahrain track is above average for overtaking. So overtaking is relatively easy but no one has won from lower than 4th on the grid. There’s a story in there and a record to be broken! Can 2018 turn the tide?
RACE RESULT
The driver’s track bias for the race sheds some light on Kimi Raikonnen’s Bahrain story – with a favorable track bias of 1.5 places Kimi’s race performance has been strong but his well below average qualifying bias means he has generally had too many places to make up to challenge for the win.
Grosjean has a huge track bias of 4 places. With six starts and six finishes he will be looking to convert his good form at Bahrain into points given the Haas’ early pace.
The Vettel v Hamilton battle has fallen Seb’s way on average at this circuit with a 1.6 place track bias spread between the two Champions.
Both Alonso and Raikonnen have started 12 of the 13 races held in Bahrain. Raikonnen missed the race in 2010 during his two year sojourn into Rally driving while Alonso missed the race in 2016 while nursing a partially collapsed lung and cracked ribs following his massive crash in Melbourne that year.
Renault will be hoping Carlos Sainz can break his three race drought having never finished a race in Bahrain.
Bahrain International Circuit
Career
Track
Driver
2017
Best
Ave
Sts
%Fin
Best
Ave
Sts
%Fin
Bias
HAM
2
1
4.2
10
100
1
3.6
209
89
0.6
VET
1
1
2.9
9
78
1
3.9
200
86
-1
BOT
3
3
7.6
5
100
1
7.4
99
92
0.2
RAI
4
2
3.5
12
92
1
5.0
274
79
-1.5
RIC
5
4
8.3
6
100
1
8.2
130
86
0.1
VER
–
6
6
3
33
1
6.3
61
77
-0.3
PER
7
3
8.5
6
100
2
9.1
137
88
-0.6
OCO
10
10
10
1
100
5
10.9
30
97
-0.9
SAI
–
–
–
3
0
4
9.7
61
69
–
HUL
9
5
11.4
7
100
4
9.6
138
81
1.8
STR
–
–
–
1
0
3
11.4
21
81
–
GRO
8
3
6.3
6
100
2
10.3
125
74
-4
MAG
–
11
11
3
33
2
11.6
62
81
-0.6
ALO
14
1
6.8
12
100
1
5.6
294
82
1.2
VAN
–
10
10
2
50
7
11.4
22
73
-1.4
GAS
–
–
–
–
–
12
13.6
6
83
–
ERI
–
12
13
4
50
8
14.5
77
74
-1.5
HAR
–
–
–
–
–
13
14.3
5
60
–
OVERTAKES
Over the past 5 years Bahrain has been a great track for overtakes. Unlike Melbourne’s 2 overtakes in 2017 Bahrain had a total of 30 based on our overtaking criteria. Bahrain has consistently had a greater number of overtakes per race than the average of all tracks.
On the other hand, and much like Melbourne, the 2017 regs stifled the driver’s overtaking ability – total overtakes decreased by 54% from 2016 to 2017. The FIA tried to address this issue in Melbourne by adding a third DRS zone but this was seemingly ineffective.
Lets hope the 2020 Regs promote aerodynamic design that makes overtaking easier!
PITSTOPS
Two stops was the dominant strategy last year
The majority of cars pitted for their first stop under the safety car on lap 13
Hamilton received a 5 second penalty for driving “unnecessarily slowly in the pit entry” in an effort to hold up Daniel Ricciardo – he subsequently lost to Vettel by 6.66 seconds (a beastly number!) but may have had a chance at the win without the penalty
2nd stops ranged from lap 30 to lap 41 with lap 37 being the most popular strategy choice
RETIREMENTS
Only 14 cars finished the 2017 Bahrain Grand Prix
This was the equal third highest number of retirements for 2017 along with Azerbaijan
TRACK SPEED AND CORNERS
The average speed achieved over the entire race by the winning driver in 2017 was 197.1km/h
This puts Bahrain in the middle of the pack of all circuits in terms of average lap speed
The Bahrain circuit has a total of 15 turns, less than the average of 16.75 for circuits on the 2017 calendar but as we saw above overtaking is definitely not dependent on the number of corners!
WHAT TO LOOK OUT FOR
After starting last on the grid and retiring early in Bahrain in 2017 Kevin Magnussen will be keen to build on his strong performance in Melbourne two weeks ago. His teammate Roman Grosjean has a very strong record here and will will also be on the hunt. Can the Haas team wrangle their wheel nuts and capitalise on their early season pace?
The Dark Horse – The Ice Man. Kimi Raikkonen’s record at Bahrain is one of contrasts – 8 podiums, a significantly favourable race track bias but a negative quali track bias – zero wins. Can the Kimster put his quali demons to rest and give himself the opportunity to finally win in Bahrain?!
If Vettel can back up his Melbourne victory with a win in Bahrain he will put himself in a position that has led to a Championship victory on every other occasion it has historically occurred.
Either way, Melbourne performances suggest there could well be at least another five drivers in contention for the top step of the podium in Bahrain.
