Buckle Up F1: Everything you need to know ahead of the 2018 Chinese Grand Prix
After a thrilling race in Bahrain last weekend Formula 1 heads to Shanghai for the 15th running of the Chinese Grand Prix. Sebastian Vettel is now two from two – historically any driver who has won the first two races has been very hard to catch for the Championship.
But there are still 19 races ahead of us and as we shall see below the Chinese Grand Prix has traditionally been a very good one for Lewis Hamilton. Can the four time world champion take the fight to Seb Vettel in round three?
Buckle up, it’s time to go racing again for the first back to back race weekend of the 2018 season.
WHAT HAPPENED HERE LAST YEAR?
In 2017 Lewis Hamilton started from pole and won the race having led every lap
In contrast to Lewis’ relatively uneventful race Max Verstappen had a storming drive from 16th on the grid to finish third. The race map shows the young Dutchman made up nine places on the first lap
Alonso also picked up five places in the opening lap, but alas both McLaren Hondas retired
The race started on a wet track that dried over the course of the race
Changing conditions in addition to several safety car deployments early in the race led to well above average pitstop activity
PODIUM RECORDS
Lewis Hamilton has dominated this circuit with 5 wins
His nearest challengers have been Rosberg and Alonso with 2 wins a piece
The 2018 Drivers have achieved the following podium places in Bahrain:
1st
2nd
Hamilton (5x)
Vettel (3x)
Alonso (2x)
3rd
Räikkönen (2x)
Vettel (1x)
Räikkönen (2x)
Alonso (2x)
Räikkönen (1x)
Hamilton (2x)
Hamilton (1x)
Vettel (1x)
Verstappen (1x)
Alonso (1x)
LAP RECORDS
A pattern is definitely emerging with lap records:
1. Like Australia and Bahrain qualifying in 2017 resulted in a lap record in China
2. Again the fastest race lap was nearly four seconds slower than qualifying in 2017
3. Yet again the fastest race lap of all time goes to Michael Schumacher set in 2004
Qualifying
Race
Difference
2017
1:31.678 (HAM)
1:35.378 (HAM)
-0:03.700
Record
1:31.678 (2017 HAM)
1:32.238 (2004 MSC)
-0:00.560
QUALIFYING
Raikonnen and Ricciardo both have a significantly favorable quali track bias in China – though the best starting position for both has been second on the grid. With a slightly unfavorable bias for Hamilton and Vettel can the Honey Badger or Ice Man steal pole in 2018?
Fernando Alonso also has a good track bias qualifying 1.4 places ahead of his career average. The Spaniard is also the only current driver to have raced in every one of the 14 Chinese GP’s to date.
One quirky stat is that Sergio Perez has exactly the same average starting position in China as his average for all circuits over his 136 race career.
Shanghai International Circuit
Career
Driver
2017
Best
Ave
Starts
Best
Ave
Starts
Bias
HAM
1
1
4.4
11
1
3.8
210
0.6
VET
2
1
5.5
11
1
4.9
200
0.6
BOT
3
3
7.4
5
1
7.6
100
-0.2
RAI
4
2
4.4
12
1
6.2
244
-1.8
RIC
5
2
6.7
6
1
9.2
130
-2.5
VER
19
9
13.7
3
2
7.5
62
6.2
PER
8
7
11.1
7
2
11.1
137
0
OCO
20
20
20
1
5
13.0
30
7
SAI
11
8
11
3
5
11.5
61
-0.5
HUL
7
7
11.9
7
1
10.0
138
1.9
STR
10
10
10
1
4
15.1
22
-5.1
GRO
17
6
10.8
6
2
11.6
126
-0.8
MAG
12
12
14.7
3
4
13.4
62
1.3
ALO
13
1
6.1
14
1
7.5
278
-1.4
VAN
16
16
16
1
7
13.3
23
2.7
GAS
–
–
–
–
6
15.3
6
–
ERI
14
10
14.8
4
10
17.9
77
-3.1
HAR
–
–
–
–
11
15.5
6
–
HOW IMPORTANT IS QUALIFYING?
Pole position in China has been relatively important with over 64% of winners starting on pole. This differs significantly from the previous grand prix in Bahrain where less than 40% of races have been won from pole.
Two of the 13 races held in China have been won from outside the top three on the grid. Michael Schumacher holds the record for lowest grid position of a winner in China with a victory from 6th on the grid in 2006.
Daniel Ricciardo backs up his good quali track bias of 2.5 places with a favourable race bias – finishing the Chinese GP on average 0.7 positions better than his career average. If the Aussie realistically plans on challenging for the 2018 title he’ll need to make the most of his good form on this track.
While Vettel and Hamilton have an equal qualifying track bias in China it is Lewis Hamilton who has managed to shine on race day. Hamilton has finished the race on average one place better in China than his overall career average. He’ll be looking to continue this trend and claw back some ground on the Championship points table.
Shanghai International Circuit
Career
Track
Driver
2017
Best
Ave
Sts
%Fin
Best
Ave
Sts
%Fin
Bias
HAM
1
1
2.6
11
91
1
3.6
210
89
-1
VET
2
1
3.9
11
100
1
3.9
201
86
0
BOT
6
6
8.4
5
100
1
7.3
100
92
1.1
RAI
5
1
5.2
12
92
1
5.0
275
79
0.2
RIC
4
4
7.5
6
100
1
8.2
131
85
-0.7
VER
3
3
9.3
3
100
1
6.3
62
76
3
PER
9
9
11.3
7
100
2
9.2
138
88
2.1
OCO
10
10
10
1
100
5
10.9
31
97
-0.9
SAI
7
7
9.7
3
100
4
9.7
62
69
0
HUL
12
6
12.2
7
86
4
9.5
139
81
2.7
STR
–
–
–
1
0
3
11.6
22
82
–
GRO
11
6
10.4
6
83
2
10.3
126
74
0.1
MAG
8
8
12.7
3
100
2
11.4
63
81
1.3
ALO
–
1
5.4
14
93
1
5.6
295
82
-0.2
VAN
–
–
–
1
0
7
11.2
23
74
–
GAS
–
–
–
–
–
4
12.0
7
86
–
ERI
15
10
15.2
4
100
8
14.4
78
74
0.8
HAR
–
–
–
–
–
13
14.0
6
67
–
OVERTAKES
The obvious outlier on the graph below is 2016. This is not surprising as that race set a new record for the most overtakes in a single race – 128 (beating the previous best of 112 set at the 2012 Brazilian GP).
2017 was more representative and only slightly higher than the average overtakes for all tracks that year. The last five years have seen the overtakes in China both above and below the overall average – let’s hope the 2018 race is more like 2016 than 2015!
PITSTOPS
Last year saw a remarkable level of activity in the pits. While there was no rain during the race the race began on a wet track with multiple accidents
With several safety car deployments many drivers had pitted 4 times by the end of the 6th lap
Two drivers (Massa and Perez) had a total of 6 pitsops each for the race
Assuming more normal conditions we can expect two stops in China this year
RETIREMENTS
Of the 20 drivers who started the race last year, 15 made it to the finish line
TRACK SPEED AND CORNERS
The average speed achieved over the entire race by the winning driver in 2017 was 187.65 km/h
This puts China in the bottom quarter of circuits for average speed
The circuit in China has 16 turns, just under the average of 16.75
WHAT TO LOOK OUT FOR
Dan Ricciardo was only just over 4 tenths off pole in Bahrain. Can the Red Bulls finally capitalise on their pace with a strong Sunday?
Since they became team mates Magnussen and Grosjean have been nearly inseparable in their head to head battle. With KMag finishing a strong 5th compared to Romain’s 13th in Bahrain the Frenchman will be keen to get a lot closer to his teammate in China. A negative track bias for KMag may assist Grosjean.
Was Pierre Gasly’s impressive 4th place in Bahrain a flash in the pan for Torro Rosso and their Honda powertrain or has the Japanese manufacturer turned the corner on performance and reliability?
As we noted last week every time the winner of the opening race in Melbourne has also won the second race of the season they have gone on to win the Championship (on 8 occasions). It’s early in the season but the stats favour Seb Vettel – Lewis Hamilton will need to make good use of his solid track bias in China to get back on terms with Vettel and the Scuderia.
