f1bytes

The 2018 F1 season keeps getting better! Somehow the fantastic race we saw in Bahrain was trumped at the last outing in China by an absolutely cracking race!  We now move on to Baku, the capital of Azerbaijan for the 4th race of the season.

This will be the third race at the Baku street circuit though only the second Azerbaijan GP as the 2016 race was scheduled as the European GP. The 2017 race was a thriller (as you can see from our RaceMap below!).  And last year’s winner…the smiling assassin Daniel Ricciardo.  Can the Aussie deliver back to back wins or can Lewis Hamilton and Mercedes regain the upper hand?

Buckle up, its race week again and below is all you need to know ahead of the Azerbaijan Grand Prix.

WHAT HAPENNED HERE LAST YEAR?

The 2017 Baku RaceMap tells the story of an amazing drivers’ podium.  After crashing in qualifying and starting the race in 10th position Ricciardo pitted on lap 6 dropping to 17th place.  After the race was red flagged the Australian fought back to take the win. In so doing he set the record for the lowest starting grid slot of a winner in the hybrid era.

Valteri Bottas had an equally exciting race having collided with Raikkonen on lap one and pitting with a puncture putting him a full lap down on the leaders. He went on to finish 2nd after passing Lance Stroll on the last lap.

The rookie Lance Stroll had an impressive race after first out-qualifying his experienced team mate Massa and going on to finish  3rd on the podium. With Stroll and Ricciardo both “enjoying” a shoey on the podium if was a fitting end to an amazing race.

The race also upped the ante in the battle for the title. Seb Vettel intentionally drove into Lewis Hamilton behind the safety car after the German thought the Brit had “brake-tested” him.  Expect another close challenge between the title favorites in 2018!

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PODIUMS

The graphic below shows the podium places achieved in Azerbaijan from the current F1 drivers. Of the six podium places achieved in total from the two races  held so far there is only one name missing from the list below – Nico Rosberg won the race in 2016 before going on to win the Championship that year.

	1st
2nd	Ricciardo (1x)
Vettel (1x)		3rd
Bottas (1x)		Stroll (1x)
		Pérez (1x)

LAP RECORDS

The top two current title contenders Lewis Hamilton and Sebastian Vettel hold the records in Baku for qualifying and race lap’s respectively.

	Qualifying	Race	Difference
2017	1:40.593 (HAM)	1:43.441 (VET)	-0:02.848
Record	1:40.593 (2017 HAM)	1:43.441 (2017 VET)	-0:02.848

In 2016 Nico Rosberg did a 1:42:520 in qualifying with his fastest lap coming in Q2 – he went on to take pole in Q3. The speed of the current spec cars is clear with Hamilton’s 2017 pole lap nearly two seconds faster than the year before. With dry conditions expect a further increase in lap times this year.

QUALIFYING

The standout result from two years of qualifying in Azerbaijan is Sergio Perez who qualified 2nd in 2016 and 6th in 2017. This gives Checo a favourable seven place qualifying track bias.

Lance Stroll has also qualified well here with 8th position in both races giving him a 7.2 place quali bias versus his career average.

Bear in mind that with only two races having been held at Baku the sample size is small. The stats should therefore be treated with some caution.

	Baku City Circuit				Career
Driver	2017	Best	Ave	Starts	Best	Ave	Starts	Bias
HAM	1	1	5.5	2	1	3.8	211	1.7
VET	4	4	4	2	1	4.8	201	-0.8
BOT	2	2	5	2	1	7.6	101	-2.6
RAI	3	3	4	2	1	6.2	245	-2.2
RIC	10	3	6.5	2	1	9.2	131	-2.7
VER	5	5	7	2	2	7.5	63	-0.5
PER	6	2	4	2	2	11.0	138	-7
OCO	7	7	7	1	5	12.9	31	-5.9
SAI	12	12	12.5	2	5	11.4	62	1.1
HUL	14	12	13	2	1	10.0	139	3
STR	8	8	8	1	4	15.2	23	-7.2
GRO	17	11	14	2	2	11.6	127	2.4
MAG	13	13	17	2	4	13.4	63	3.6
ALO	16	14	15	2	1	7.5	279	7.5
VAN	19	19	19	1	7	13.4	24	5.6
GAS	–	–	–	–	6	15.6	7	–
ERI	18	18	19	2	10	17.9	78	1.1
HAR	–	–	–	–	11	15.4	7	–

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HOW IMPORTANT IS QUALIFYING?

Perhaps not too much to draw from the chart below given limited data although it does highlight Ricciardo’s stunning win last year versus historical averages from all circuits.

RACE RESULT

There is opportunity for result upsets at this track as 3rd place podiums for Stroll and Perez highlight.  Will we see similar dynamics play out this year following on from the dramatic events of the previous race in China? Team strategy will no doubt play an important role once again.

As with qualifying, Stroll and Perez take the top spots with regard to track bias. Given Williams’ struggles so far this season they will be hoping the young Canadian can conjure up more opportunities this year at this unique street circuit.

	Baku City Circuit					Career				Track
Driver	2017	Best	Ave	Sts	%Fin	Best	Ave	Sts	%Fin	Bias
HAM	5	5	5	2	100	1	3.6	211	89	1.4
VET	4	2	3	2	100	1	3.9	202	86	-0.9
BOT	2	2	4	2	100	1	7.3	101	92	-3.3
RAI	14	4	9	2	100	1	5.0	276	79	4
RIC	1	1	4	2	100	1	8.2	132	86	-4.2
VER	–	8	8	2	50	1	6.3	63	76	1.7
PER	–	3	3	2	50	2	9.2	139	88	-6.2
OCO	6	6	6	1	100	5	10.9	32	97	-4.9
SAI	8	8	8	2	50	4	9.7	63	70	-1.7
HUL	–	9	9	2	50	4	9.5	140	81	-0.5
STR	3	3	3	1	100	3	11.7	23	83	-8.7
GRO	13	13	13	2	100	2	10.4	127	74	2.6
MAG	7	7	10.5	2	100	2	11.4	64	81	-0.9
ALO	9	9	9	2	50	1	5.6	296	82	3.4
VAN	12	12	12	1	100	7	11.3	24	75	0.7
GAS	–	–	–	–	–	4	12.9	8	88	–
ERI	11	11	14	2	100	8	14.5	79	75	-0.5
HAR	–	–	–	–	–	13	15.2	7	71	–

OVERTAKES

There may have only been two races so far at the Baku street circuit but they’ve been eventful ones. The overtakes chart certainly bears this out with significantly higher levels of overtaking than the average for all tracks.

There were over 50% more overtakes in Baku than the season average in 2016 (which was itself a good year for overtakes) and more than double the season average in 2017.

Coming off the back of two outstanding races in Bahrain and China and with the battle heating up for both the Championship itself and for midfield bragging rights we can expect some more on-track fireworks this year in Azerbaijan.

PITSTOPS

Last year’s race in Azerbaijan was far from conventional.  Seven cars completed three pitstops, eight cars completed four stops and two cars completed five stops. It therefore offers little in the way of a template for this year’s baseline pitstop strategy.

With three safety car deployments and a period of over 20 minutes under red flags there was no shortage of challenges for the strategists last year. Given last year’s race in Baku in addition to the dramatic safety-car-affected race in China last time out the team strategists will definitely be sharpening their pencils ahead of this week’s race. Can Red Bull’s strategy sleuths back up their fine performance in China and help steer Ricciardo to a second victory in Azerbaijan?

RETIREMENTS

70% of drivers finished last years race making it equal third for the highest number of retirements of the season. There may actually have been more retirements had the red flags not given pit crews a chance to work on damaged cars and get them back out on track.

As Daniel Ricciardo recently highlighted one of the hardest things about this circuit is braking.  There are several hard braking and extremely unforgiving corners which offer plenty of opportunities for driver error.

TRACK SPEED AND CORNERS

Azerbaijan was the second slowest circuit on the calendar last year with an average speed for the winning driver of 148.2 km/h. This stat is a little misleading though given the highly disrupted race. In fact in 2016 qualifying Valtteri Bottas reached the highest ever recorded speed in an official Formula One session, at 378 km/h.

There are 20 corners on the circuit putting it equal third highest for total corners.

With both high top speeds and and many corners there are opportunities at both ends of spectrum for the teams to evaluate different aero balances.

WHAT TO LOOK OUT FOR

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With arguably the best chassis on the grid and with Renault providing more power the mix of tight corners and long straight may provide a good opportunity for the Red Bulls.  With a storming race in China and having won last years race in Baku Dan Ricciardo will be full of confidence.  Can Max Verstappen have a clean race and make better use of his and his car’s speed?

Kevin Magnussen and Romain Grosjean have traditionally been nearly impossible to split…until now.  After the first three races of the season KMag has taken a handy 5:1 lead over RoGro in their head to head battle.  Can the Frenchman turn the tables in Baku and close up on his teammate?

With only nine points separating Vettel and Hamilton at the top of the Championship it’s a vital race for both.  Can Lewis win his first race of the season and tighten up the title fight further?

Who will win the 2018 Azerbaijan GP?

After a thrilling race in Bahrain last weekend Formula 1 heads to Shanghai for the 15th running of the Chinese Grand Prix. Sebastian Vettel is now two from two – historically any driver who has won the first two races has been very hard to catch for the Championship.

But there are still 19 races ahead of us and as we shall see below the Chinese Grand Prix has traditionally been a very good one for Lewis Hamilton. Can the four time world champion take the fight to Seb Vettel in round three?

Buckle up, it’s time to go racing again for the first back to back race weekend of the 2018 season.

WHAT HAPPENED HERE LAST YEAR?

• In 2017 Lewis Hamilton started from pole and won the race having led every lap
• In contrast to Lewis’ relatively uneventful race Max Verstappen had a storming drive from 16th on the grid to finish third.  The race map shows the young Dutchman made up nine places on the first lap
• Alonso also picked up five places in the opening lap, but alas both McLaren Hondas retired
• The race started on a wet track that dried over the course of the race
• Changing conditions in addition to several safety car deployments early in the race led to well above average pitstop activity

PODIUM RECORDS

• Lewis Hamilton has dominated this circuit with 5 wins
• His nearest challengers have been Rosberg and Alonso with 2 wins a piece

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The 2018 Drivers have achieved the following podium places in Bahrain:

	1st
2nd	Hamilton (5x)
Vettel (3x)	Alonso (2x)	3rd
Räikkönen (2x)	Vettel (1x)	Räikkönen (2x)
Alonso (2x)	Räikkönen (1x)	Hamilton (2x)
Hamilton (1x)		Vettel (1x)
		Verstappen (1x)
		Alonso (1x)

LAP RECORDS

A pattern is definitely emerging with lap records:

1. Like Australia and Bahrain qualifying in 2017 resulted in a lap record in China

2. Again the fastest race lap was nearly four seconds slower than qualifying in 2017

3. Yet again the fastest race lap of all time goes to Michael Schumacher set in 2004

	Qualifying	Race	Difference
2017	1:31.678 (HAM)	1:35.378 (HAM)	-0:03.700
Record	1:31.678 (2017 HAM)	1:32.238 (2004 MSC)	-0:00.560

QUALIFYING

Raikonnen and Ricciardo both have a significantly favorable quali track bias in China – though the best starting position for both has been second on the grid.  With a slightly unfavorable bias for Hamilton and Vettel can the Honey Badger or Ice Man steal pole in 2018?

Fernando Alonso also has a good track bias qualifying 1.4 places ahead of his career average.  The Spaniard is also the only current driver to have raced in every one of the 14 Chinese GP’s to date.

One quirky stat is that Sergio Perez has exactly the same average starting position in China as his average for all circuits over his 136 race career.

	Shanghai International Circuit				Career
Driver	2017	Best	Ave	Starts	Best	Ave	Starts	Bias
HAM	1	1	4.4	11	1	3.8	210	0.6
VET	2	1	5.5	11	1	4.9	200	0.6
BOT	3	3	7.4	5	1	7.6	100	-0.2
RAI	4	2	4.4	12	1	6.2	244	-1.8
RIC	5	2	6.7	6	1	9.2	130	-2.5
VER	19	9	13.7	3	2	7.5	62	6.2
PER	8	7	11.1	7	2	11.1	137	0
OCO	20	20	20	1	5	13.0	30	7
SAI	11	8	11	3	5	11.5	61	-0.5
HUL	7	7	11.9	7	1	10.0	138	1.9
STR	10	10	10	1	4	15.1	22	-5.1
GRO	17	6	10.8	6	2	11.6	126	-0.8
MAG	12	12	14.7	3	4	13.4	62	1.3
ALO	13	1	6.1	14	1	7.5	278	-1.4
VAN	16	16	16	1	7	13.3	23	2.7
GAS	–	–	–	–	6	15.3	6	–
ERI	14	10	14.8	4	10	17.9	77	-3.1
HAR	–	–	–	–	11	15.5	6	–

HOW IMPORTANT IS QUALIFYING?

Pole position in China has been relatively important with over 64% of winners starting on pole.  This differs significantly from the previous grand prix in Bahrain where less than 40% of races have been won from pole.

Two of the 13 races held in China have been won from outside the top three on the grid. Michael Schumacher holds the record for lowest grid position of a winner in China with a victory from 6th on the grid in 2006.

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RACE RESULT

Daniel Ricciardo backs up his good quali track bias of 2.5 places with a favourable race bias – finishing the Chinese GP on average 0.7 positions better than his career average.  If the Aussie realistically plans on challenging for the 2018 title he’ll need to make the most of his good form on this track.

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While Vettel and Hamilton have an equal qualifying track bias in China it is Lewis Hamilton who has managed to shine on race day. Hamilton has finished the race on average one place better in China than his overall career average. He’ll be looking to continue this trend and claw back some ground on the Championship points table.

	Shanghai International Circuit					Career				Track
Driver	2017	Best	Ave	Sts	%Fin	Best	Ave	Sts	%Fin	Bias
HAM	1	1	2.6	11	91	1	3.6	210	89	-1
VET	2	1	3.9	11	100	1	3.9	201	86	0
BOT	6	6	8.4	5	100	1	7.3	100	92	1.1
RAI	5	1	5.2	12	92	1	5.0	275	79	0.2
RIC	4	4	7.5	6	100	1	8.2	131	85	-0.7
VER	3	3	9.3	3	100	1	6.3	62	76	3
PER	9	9	11.3	7	100	2	9.2	138	88	2.1
OCO	10	10	10	1	100	5	10.9	31	97	-0.9
SAI	7	7	9.7	3	100	4	9.7	62	69	0
HUL	12	6	12.2	7	86	4	9.5	139	81	2.7
STR	–	–	–	1	0	3	11.6	22	82	–
GRO	11	6	10.4	6	83	2	10.3	126	74	0.1
MAG	8	8	12.7	3	100	2	11.4	63	81	1.3
ALO	–	1	5.4	14	93	1	5.6	295	82	-0.2
VAN	–	–	–	1	0	7	11.2	23	74	–
GAS	–	–	–	–	–	4	12.0	7	86	–
ERI	15	10	15.2	4	100	8	14.4	78	74	0.8
HAR	–	–	–	–	–	13	14.0	6	67	–

OVERTAKES

The obvious outlier on the graph below is 2016.  This is not surprising as that race set a new record for the most overtakes in a single race – 128 (beating the previous best of 112 set at the 2012 Brazilian GP).

2017 was more representative and only slightly higher than the average overtakes for all tracks that year.  The last five years have seen the overtakes in China both above and below the overall average – let’s hope the 2018 race is more like 2016 than 2015!

PITSTOPS

• Last year saw a remarkable level of activity in the pits.  While there was no rain during the race the race began on a wet track with multiple accidents
• With several safety car deployments many drivers had pitted 4 times by the end of the 6th lap
• Two drivers (Massa and Perez) had a total of 6 pitsops each for the race
• Assuming more normal conditions we can expect two stops in China this year

RETIREMENTS

• Of the 20 drivers who started the race last year, 15 made it to the finish line

TRACK SPEED AND CORNERS

• The average speed achieved over the entire race by the winning driver in 2017 was 187.65 km/h
• This puts China in the bottom quarter of circuits for average speed
• The circuit  in China has 16 turns, just under the average of 16.75

WHAT TO LOOK OUT FOR

Dan Ricciardo was only just over 4 tenths off pole in Bahrain.  Can the Red Bulls finally capitalise on their pace with a strong Sunday?

Since they became team mates Magnussen and Grosjean have been nearly inseparable in their head to head battle.  With KMag finishing a strong 5th compared to Romain’s 13th in Bahrain the Frenchman will be keen to get a lot closer to his teammate in China.  A negative track bias for KMag may assist Grosjean.

Was Pierre Gasly’s impressive 4th place in Bahrain a flash in the pan for Torro Rosso and their Honda powertrain or has the Japanese manufacturer turned the corner on performance and reliability?

As we noted last week every time the winner of the opening race in Melbourne has also won the second race of the season they have gone on to win the Championship (on 8 occasions). It’s early in the season but the stats favour Seb Vettel – Lewis Hamilton will need to make good use of his solid track bias in China to get back on terms with Vettel and the Scuderia.