F1 Bytes

After a thrilling race in Bahrain last weekend Formula 1 heads to Shanghai for the 15th running of the Chinese Grand Prix. Sebastian Vettel is now two from two – historically any driver who has won the first two races has been very hard to catch for the Championship.

But there are still 19 races ahead of us and as we shall see below the Chinese Grand Prix has traditionally been a very good one for Lewis Hamilton. Can the four time world champion take the fight to Seb Vettel in round three?

Buckle up, it’s time to go racing again for the first back to back race weekend of the 2018 season.

WHAT HAPPENED HERE LAST YEAR?

• In 2017 Lewis Hamilton started from pole and won the race having led every lap
• In contrast to Lewis’ relatively uneventful race Max Verstappen had a storming drive from 16th on the grid to finish third.  The race map shows the young Dutchman made up nine places on the first lap
• Alonso also picked up five places in the opening lap, but alas both McLaren Hondas retired
• The race started on a wet track that dried over the course of the race
• Changing conditions in addition to several safety car deployments early in the race led to well above average pitstop activity

PODIUM RECORDS

• Lewis Hamilton has dominated this circuit with 5 wins
• His nearest challengers have been Rosberg and Alonso with 2 wins a piece

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The 2018 Drivers have achieved the following podium places in Bahrain:

	1st
2nd	Hamilton (5x)
Vettel (3x)	Alonso (2x)	3rd
Räikkönen (2x)	Vettel (1x)	Räikkönen (2x)
Alonso (2x)	Räikkönen (1x)	Hamilton (2x)
Hamilton (1x)		Vettel (1x)
		Verstappen (1x)
		Alonso (1x)

LAP RECORDS

A pattern is definitely emerging with lap records:

1. Like Australia and Bahrain qualifying in 2017 resulted in a lap record in China

2. Again the fastest race lap was nearly four seconds slower than qualifying in 2017

3. Yet again the fastest race lap of all time goes to Michael Schumacher set in 2004

	Qualifying	Race	Difference
2017	1:31.678 (HAM)	1:35.378 (HAM)	-0:03.700
Record	1:31.678 (2017 HAM)	1:32.238 (2004 MSC)	-0:00.560

QUALIFYING

Raikonnen and Ricciardo both have a significantly favorable quali track bias in China – though the best starting position for both has been second on the grid.  With a slightly unfavorable bias for Hamilton and Vettel can the Honey Badger or Ice Man steal pole in 2018?

Fernando Alonso also has a good track bias qualifying 1.4 places ahead of his career average.  The Spaniard is also the only current driver to have raced in every one of the 14 Chinese GP’s to date.

One quirky stat is that Sergio Perez has exactly the same average starting position in China as his average for all circuits over his 136 race career.

	Shanghai International Circuit				Career
Driver	2017	Best	Ave	Starts	Best	Ave	Starts	Bias
HAM	1	1	4.4	11	1	3.8	210	0.6
VET	2	1	5.5	11	1	4.9	200	0.6
BOT	3	3	7.4	5	1	7.6	100	-0.2
RAI	4	2	4.4	12	1	6.2	244	-1.8
RIC	5	2	6.7	6	1	9.2	130	-2.5
VER	19	9	13.7	3	2	7.5	62	6.2
PER	8	7	11.1	7	2	11.1	137	0
OCO	20	20	20	1	5	13.0	30	7
SAI	11	8	11	3	5	11.5	61	-0.5
HUL	7	7	11.9	7	1	10.0	138	1.9
STR	10	10	10	1	4	15.1	22	-5.1
GRO	17	6	10.8	6	2	11.6	126	-0.8
MAG	12	12	14.7	3	4	13.4	62	1.3
ALO	13	1	6.1	14	1	7.5	278	-1.4
VAN	16	16	16	1	7	13.3	23	2.7
GAS	–	–	–	–	6	15.3	6	–
ERI	14	10	14.8	4	10	17.9	77	-3.1
HAR	–	–	–	–	11	15.5	6	–

HOW IMPORTANT IS QUALIFYING?

Pole position in China has been relatively important with over 64% of winners starting on pole.  This differs significantly from the previous grand prix in Bahrain where less than 40% of races have been won from pole.

Two of the 13 races held in China have been won from outside the top three on the grid. Michael Schumacher holds the record for lowest grid position of a winner in China with a victory from 6th on the grid in 2006.

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RACE RESULT

Daniel Ricciardo backs up his good quali track bias of 2.5 places with a favourable race bias – finishing the Chinese GP on average 0.7 positions better than his career average.  If the Aussie realistically plans on challenging for the 2018 title he’ll need to make the most of his good form on this track.

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While Vettel and Hamilton have an equal qualifying track bias in China it is Lewis Hamilton who has managed to shine on race day. Hamilton has finished the race on average one place better in China than his overall career average. He’ll be looking to continue this trend and claw back some ground on the Championship points table.

	Shanghai International Circuit					Career				Track
Driver	2017	Best	Ave	Sts	%Fin	Best	Ave	Sts	%Fin	Bias
HAM	1	1	2.6	11	91	1	3.6	210	89	-1
VET	2	1	3.9	11	100	1	3.9	201	86	0
BOT	6	6	8.4	5	100	1	7.3	100	92	1.1
RAI	5	1	5.2	12	92	1	5.0	275	79	0.2
RIC	4	4	7.5	6	100	1	8.2	131	85	-0.7
VER	3	3	9.3	3	100	1	6.3	62	76	3
PER	9	9	11.3	7	100	2	9.2	138	88	2.1
OCO	10	10	10	1	100	5	10.9	31	97	-0.9
SAI	7	7	9.7	3	100	4	9.7	62	69	0
HUL	12	6	12.2	7	86	4	9.5	139	81	2.7
STR	–	–	–	1	0	3	11.6	22	82	–
GRO	11	6	10.4	6	83	2	10.3	126	74	0.1
MAG	8	8	12.7	3	100	2	11.4	63	81	1.3
ALO	–	1	5.4	14	93	1	5.6	295	82	-0.2
VAN	–	–	–	1	0	7	11.2	23	74	–
GAS	–	–	–	–	–	4	12.0	7	86	–
ERI	15	10	15.2	4	100	8	14.4	78	74	0.8
HAR	–	–	–	–	–	13	14.0	6	67	–

OVERTAKES

The obvious outlier on the graph below is 2016.  This is not surprising as that race set a new record for the most overtakes in a single race – 128 (beating the previous best of 112 set at the 2012 Brazilian GP).

2017 was more representative and only slightly higher than the average overtakes for all tracks that year.  The last five years have seen the overtakes in China both above and below the overall average – let’s hope the 2018 race is more like 2016 than 2015!

PITSTOPS

• Last year saw a remarkable level of activity in the pits.  While there was no rain during the race the race began on a wet track with multiple accidents
• With several safety car deployments many drivers had pitted 4 times by the end of the 6th lap
• Two drivers (Massa and Perez) had a total of 6 pitsops each for the race
• Assuming more normal conditions we can expect two stops in China this year

RETIREMENTS

• Of the 20 drivers who started the race last year, 15 made it to the finish line

TRACK SPEED AND CORNERS

• The average speed achieved over the entire race by the winning driver in 2017 was 187.65 km/h
• This puts China in the bottom quarter of circuits for average speed
• The circuit  in China has 16 turns, just under the average of 16.75

WHAT TO LOOK OUT FOR

Dan Ricciardo was only just over 4 tenths off pole in Bahrain.  Can the Red Bulls finally capitalise on their pace with a strong Sunday?

Since they became team mates Magnussen and Grosjean have been nearly inseparable in their head to head battle.  With KMag finishing a strong 5th compared to Romain’s 13th in Bahrain the Frenchman will be keen to get a lot closer to his teammate in China.  A negative track bias for KMag may assist Grosjean.

Was Pierre Gasly’s impressive 4th place in Bahrain a flash in the pan for Torro Rosso and their Honda powertrain or has the Japanese manufacturer turned the corner on performance and reliability?

As we noted last week every time the winner of the opening race in Melbourne has also won the second race of the season they have gone on to win the Championship (on 8 occasions). It’s early in the season but the stats favour Seb Vettel – Lewis Hamilton will need to make good use of his solid track bias in China to get back on terms with Vettel and the Scuderia.

Following victory in Melbourne Seb Vettel and the Ferrari team will be looking to consolidate their lead as we head to Bahrain for round two of the 2018 Championship. Mercedes will no doubt have tweaked their code to fix the software glitch that supposedly cost them the victory and will be keen to level the scores. Meanwhile we can safely assume that the boys at Haas have had one or two pitstop practice sessions since race day in Melbourne and will be keen convert their newfound pace into actual championship points this time around.

Buckle Up – It’s time for the Bahrain Formula 1 Grand Prix…

WHAT HAPPENED LAST YEAR IN BAHRAIN?

• As we’ve highlighted in the 2017 RaceMap above Vettel took his 44th F1 victory in Bahrain last year in a cool, calculated performance after starting from 3rd on the grid
• Sergio Perez also had an outstanding race.  After starting 18th on the grid he made up 5 places on the opening lap and finished the race in 7th position (with a little help from the safety car!)

FAST FACTS

• 2018 will be the 14th race at the circuit after the 2011 race was cancelled due to domestic protests
• Since the first race in 2004 Bahrain has generally been the third race of the season but this year swaps places with the Chinese GP
• The winner of the opening race in Melbourne has gone on to win the next race on 8 occasions.  Each and every time this has occurred the driver has gone on to win the Championship. Seb Vettel will be pumped to follow up!
• Start time for the race is 6.10pm local time (GMT+3)

PODIUMS

• • Both Sebastian Vettel and Fernando Alonso have managed the top step three times in Bahrain.  The last win for Seb was in 2017 but Fernando last won way back in 2010  – both wins coming in Ferraris
  • Massa and Hamilton have each had two wins here
  • Schumacher, Rosberg and Button have also had a win each
  • Of the current drivers Kimi Raikkonen has finished on the podium 8 times but is yet to taste victory.  Can the Kimster break his drought in 2018?

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The 2018 Drivers have achieved the following podium places in Bahrain:

	1st
2nd	Vettel (3x)
Räikkönen (5x)	Alonso (3x)	3rd
Hamilton (2x)	Hamilton (2x)	Räikkönen (3x)
Vettel (1x)		Hamilton (2x)
		Grosjean (2x)
		Pérez (1x)
		Bottas (1x)

LAP RECORDS

	Qualifying	Race	Difference
2017	1:28.769 (BOT)	1:32.798 (HAM)	-0:04.029
Record	1:28.769 (2017 BOT)	1:30.252 (2004 MSC)	-0:01.483

Just like Melbourne in 2017 qualifying in Bahrain last year saw a new lap record set. But the fastest lap in the race was again over 4 seconds slower than Bottas’ pole time. And the similarity with Melbourne doesn’t end there – the lap record for a race lap is again held by one M Schumacher from his 2004 title winning year with Ferrari!

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In 2004 Michael’s Quali time was only 0.113 of a second less than his race lap record.  This compares to just over 4 seconds difference in 2017. In Melbourne this year the difference between Hamilton’s record pole lap and Ricciardo’s fastest race lap was nearly 5 seconds! Will the drivers be able to push more in the race at Sakhir where overtaking has traditionally been easier than in Australia?

QUALIFYING

The largest favourable qualifying track bias goes to Daniel Ricciardo.  With 6 starts in Bahrain the Honey Badger averages 3 places better in Bahrain qualifying than his overall career average.  With a strong looking Red Bull  Ricciardo could be one to watch on Saturday.

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At the other end of the spectrum Kimi Raikkonen has an unfavourable quali track bias of 2.6 places.  With 8 podiums but no wins the Ice Man needs to turn this quali form around to be able to maximise his Sunday.

	Bahrain International Circuit				Career
Driver	2017	Best	Ave	Starts	Best	Ave	Starts	Bias
HAM	2	1	2.6	10	1	3.8	209	-1.2
VET	3	1	5	9	1	4.9	199	0.1
BOT	1	1	6.2	5	1	7.7	99	-1.5
RAI	5	3	8.9	12	1	6.3	243	2.6
RIC	4	3	6.3	6	1	9.3	129	-3
VER	6	6	10.3	3	2	7.4	61	2.9
PER	18	5	12	6	2	11.1	136	0.9
OCO	14	14	14	1	5	13.1	29	0.9
SAI	16	9	12	3	5	11.5	60	0.5
HUL	7	7	10.7	7	1	10.0	137	0.7
STR	12	12	12	1	4	14.9	21	-2.9
GRO	9	7	10.3	6	2	11.6	125	-1.3
MAG	20	9	16	3	4	13.5	61	2.5
ALO	15	1	8.1	12	1	7.5	277	0.6
VAN	17	12	14.5	2	7	13.3	22	1.2
GAS	–	–	–	–	15	17.2	5	–
ERI	19	13	17.5	4	10	17.9	76	-0.4
HAR	–	–	–	–	13	16.4	5	–

HOW IMPORTANT IS QUALIFYING?

The following chart shows the percentage of wins that have occurred from each grid position in Bahrain and how this compares to the average for all circuits over the 13 seasons since Bahrain was added to the Calendar.

One stark difference to the season opener in Australia is that no one has ever won the Bahrain GP from lower than 4th on the grid! Granted the GP has been running for 10 years less than Melbourne but this is still a telling stat.

Also, while starting on the first two rows has been critical surprisingly less than 40% of winners have started from pole. This isn’t due to drivers starting on pole having retired – the pole position holder has always finished the race in Bahrain. Nor is it due to pole not being on the best driving line into the first corner. 9 out of 13 pole position holders have led the race after the end of the first lap. Something else is afoot.

As we discuss below the Bahrain track is above average for overtaking. So overtaking is relatively easy but no one has won from lower than 4th on the grid.  There’s a story in there and a record to be broken!  Can 2018 turn the tide?

RACE RESULT

The driver’s track bias for the race sheds some light on Kimi Raikonnen’s Bahrain story – with a favorable track bias of 1.5 places Kimi’s race performance has been strong but his well below average qualifying bias means he has generally had too many places to make up to challenge for the win.

Grosjean has a huge track bias of 4 places. With six starts and six finishes he will be looking to convert his good form at Bahrain into points given the Haas’ early pace.

The Vettel v Hamilton battle has fallen Seb’s way on average at this circuit with a 1.6 place track bias spread between the two Champions.

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Both Alonso and Raikonnen have started 12 of the 13 races held in Bahrain. Raikonnen missed the race in 2010 during his two year sojourn into Rally driving while Alonso missed the race in 2016 while nursing a partially collapsed lung and cracked ribs following his massive crash in Melbourne that year.

Renault will be hoping Carlos Sainz can break his three race drought having never finished a race in Bahrain.

	Bahrain International Circuit					Career				Track
Driver	2017	Best	Ave	Sts	%Fin	Best	Ave	Sts	%Fin	Bias
HAM	2	1	4.2	10	100	1	3.6	209	89	0.6
VET	1	1	2.9	9	78	1	3.9	200	86	-1
BOT	3	3	7.6	5	100	1	7.4	99	92	0.2
RAI	4	2	3.5	12	92	1	5.0	274	79	-1.5
RIC	5	4	8.3	6	100	1	8.2	130	86	0.1
VER	–	6	6	3	33	1	6.3	61	77	-0.3
PER	7	3	8.5	6	100	2	9.1	137	88	-0.6
OCO	10	10	10	1	100	5	10.9	30	97	-0.9
SAI	–	–	–	3	0	4	9.7	61	69	–
HUL	9	5	11.4	7	100	4	9.6	138	81	1.8
STR	–	–	–	1	0	3	11.4	21	81	–
GRO	8	3	6.3	6	100	2	10.3	125	74	-4
MAG	–	11	11	3	33	2	11.6	62	81	-0.6
ALO	14	1	6.8	12	100	1	5.6	294	82	1.2
VAN	–	10	10	2	50	7	11.4	22	73	-1.4
GAS	–	–	–	–	–	12	13.6	6	83	–
ERI	–	12	13	4	50	8	14.5	77	74	-1.5
HAR	–	–	–	–	–	13	14.3	5	60	–

OVERTAKES

Over the past 5 years Bahrain has been a great track for overtakes. Unlike Melbourne’s 2 overtakes in 2017 Bahrain had a total of 30 based on our overtaking criteria. Bahrain has consistently had a greater number of overtakes per race than the average of all tracks.

On the other hand, and much like Melbourne, the 2017 regs stifled the driver’s overtaking ability – total overtakes decreased by 54% from 2016 to 2017. The FIA tried to address this issue in Melbourne by adding a third DRS zone but this was seemingly ineffective.

Lets hope the 2020 Regs promote aerodynamic design that makes overtaking easier!

PITSTOPS

• Two stops was the dominant strategy last year
• The majority of cars pitted for their first stop under the safety car on lap 13
• Hamilton  received a 5 second penalty for driving “unnecessarily slowly in the pit entry” in an effort to hold up Daniel Ricciardo – he subsequently lost to Vettel by 6.66 seconds (a beastly number!) but may have had a chance at the win without the penalty
• 2nd stops ranged from lap 30 to lap 41 with lap 37 being the most popular strategy choice

RETIREMENTS

• Only 14 cars finished the 2017 Bahrain Grand Prix
• This was the equal third highest number of retirements for 2017 along with Azerbaijan

TRACK SPEED AND CORNERS

• The average speed achieved over the entire race by the winning driver in 2017 was 197.1km/h
• This puts Bahrain in the middle of the pack of all circuits in terms of average lap speed
• The Bahrain circuit has a total of 15 turns, less than the average of 16.75 for circuits on the 2017 calendar but as we saw above overtaking is definitely not dependent on the number of corners!

WHAT TO LOOK OUT FOR

After starting last on the grid and retiring early in Bahrain in 2017 Kevin Magnussen will be keen to build on his strong performance in Melbourne two weeks ago.  His teammate Roman Grosjean has a very strong record here and will will also be on the hunt.  Can the Haas team wrangle their wheel nuts and capitalise on their early season pace?

The Dark Horse – The Ice Man.  Kimi Raikkonen’s record at Bahrain is one of contrasts – 8 podiums, a significantly favourable race track bias but a negative quali track bias – zero wins.  Can the Kimster put his quali demons to rest and give himself the opportunity to finally win in Bahrain?!

If Vettel can back up his Melbourne victory with a win in Bahrain he will put himself in a position that has led to a Championship victory on every other occasion it has historically occurred.

Either way, Melbourne performances suggest there could well be at least another five drivers in contention for the top step of the podium in Bahrain.

Survey – who will win the 2018 Bahrain GP?