Buckle Up F1: Everything you need to know ahead of the 2018 Bahrain Grand Prix

Following victory in Melbourne Seb Vettel and the Ferrari team will be looking to consolidate their lead as we head to Bahrain for round two of the 2018 Championship. Mercedes will no doubt have tweaked their code to fix the software glitch that supposedly cost them the victory and will be keen to level the scores. Meanwhile we can safely assume that the boys at Haas have had one or two pitstop practice sessions since race day in Melbourne and will be keen convert their newfound pace into actual championship points this time around.

Buckle Up – It’s time for the Bahrain Formula 1 Grand Prix…

WHAT HAPPENED LAST YEAR IN BAHRAIN?

  • As we’ve highlighted in the 2017 RaceMap above Vettel took his 44th F1 victory in Bahrain last year in a cool, calculated performance after starting from 3rd on the grid
  • Sergio Perez also had an outstanding race.  After starting 18th on the grid he made up 5 places on the opening lap and finished the race in 7th position (with a little help from the safety car!)

FAST FACTS

  • 2018 will be the 14th race at the circuit after the 2011 race was cancelled due to domestic protests
  • Since the first race in 2004 Bahrain has generally been the third race of the season but this year swaps places with the Chinese GP
  • The winner of the opening race in Melbourne has gone on to win the next race on 8 occasions.  Each and every time this has occurred the driver has gone on to win the Championship. Seb Vettel will be pumped to follow up!
  • Start time for the race is 6.10pm local time (GMT+3)

PODIUMS

    • Both Sebastian Vettel and Fernando Alonso have managed the top step three times in Bahrain.  The last win for Seb was in 2017 but Fernando last won way back in 2010  – both wins coming in Ferraris
    • Massa and Hamilton have each had two wins here
    • Schumacher, Rosberg and Button have also had a win each
    • Of the current drivers Kimi Raikkonen has finished on the podium 8 times but is yet to taste victory.  Can the Kimster break his drought in 2018?

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The 2018 Drivers have achieved the following podium places in Bahrain:

1st
2nd
Vettel (3x)
Räikkönen (5x)
Alonso (3x)
3rd
Hamilton (2x) Hamilton (2x) Räikkönen (3x)
Vettel (1x) Hamilton (2x)
Grosjean (2x)
Pérez (1x)
Bottas (1x)

LAP RECORDS

Qualifying Race Difference
2017 1:28.769 (BOT) 1:32.798 (HAM) -0:04.029
Record 1:28.769 (2017 BOT) 1:30.252 (2004 MSC) -0:01.483

Just like Melbourne in 2017 qualifying in Bahrain last year saw a new lap record set. But the fastest lap in the race was again over 4 seconds slower than Bottas’ pole time. And the similarity with Melbourne doesn’t end there – the lap record for a race lap is again held by one M Schumacher from his 2004 title winning year with Ferrari!

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In 2004 Michael’s Quali time was only 0.113 of a second less than his race lap record.  This compares to just over 4 seconds difference in 2017. In Melbourne this year the difference between Hamilton’s record pole lap and Ricciardo’s fastest race lap was nearly 5 seconds! Will the drivers be able to push more in the race at Sakhir where overtaking has traditionally been easier than in Australia?

QUALIFYING

The largest favourable qualifying track bias goes to Daniel Ricciardo.  With 6 starts in Bahrain the Honey Badger averages 3 places better in Bahrain qualifying than his overall career average.  With a strong looking Red Bull  Ricciardo could be one to watch on Saturday.

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At the other end of the spectrum Kimi Raikkonen has an unfavourable quali track bias of 2.6 places.  With 8 podiums but no wins the Ice Man needs to turn this quali form around to be able to maximise his Sunday.

Bahrain International Circuit Career
Driver 2017 Best Ave Starts Best Ave Starts Bias
HAM 2 1 2.6 10 1 3.8 209 -1.2
VET 3 1 5 9 1 4.9 199 0.1
BOT 1 1 6.2 5 1 7.7 99 -1.5
RAI 5 3 8.9 12 1 6.3 243 2.6
RIC 4 3 6.3 6 1 9.3 129 -3
VER 6 6 10.3 3 2 7.4 61 2.9
PER 18 5 12 6 2 11.1 136 0.9
OCO 14 14 14 1 5 13.1 29 0.9
SAI 16 9 12 3 5 11.5 60 0.5
HUL 7 7 10.7 7 1 10.0 137 0.7
STR 12 12 12 1 4 14.9 21 -2.9
GRO 9 7 10.3 6 2 11.6 125 -1.3
MAG 20 9 16 3 4 13.5 61 2.5
ALO 15 1 8.1 12 1 7.5 277 0.6
VAN 17 12 14.5 2 7 13.3 22 1.2
GAS 15 17.2 5
ERI 19 13 17.5 4 10 17.9 76 -0.4
HAR 13 16.4 5

HOW IMPORTANT IS QUALIFYING?

The following chart shows the percentage of wins that have occurred from each grid position in Bahrain and how this compares to the average for all circuits over the 13 seasons since Bahrain was added to the Calendar.

One stark difference to the season opener in Australia is that no one has ever won the Bahrain GP from lower than 4th on the grid! Granted the GP has been running for 10 years less than Melbourne but this is still a telling stat.

Also, while starting on the first two rows has been critical surprisingly less than 40% of winners have started from pole. This isn’t due to drivers starting on pole having retired – the pole position holder has always finished the race in Bahrain. Nor is it due to pole not being on the best driving line into the first corner. 9 out of 13 pole position holders have led the race after the end of the first lap. Something else is afoot.

As we discuss below the Bahrain track is above average for overtaking. So overtaking is relatively easy but no one has won from lower than 4th on the grid.  There’s a story in there and a record to be broken!  Can 2018 turn the tide?

RACE RESULT

The driver’s track bias for the race sheds some light on Kimi Raikonnen’s Bahrain story – with a favorable track bias of 1.5 places Kimi’s race performance has been strong but his well below average qualifying bias means he has generally had too many places to make up to challenge for the win.

Grosjean has a huge track bias of 4 places. With six starts and six finishes he will be looking to convert his good form at Bahrain into points given the Haas’ early pace.

The Vettel v Hamilton battle has fallen Seb’s way on average at this circuit with a 1.6 place track bias spread between the two Champions.

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Both Alonso and Raikonnen have started 12 of the 13 races held in Bahrain. Raikonnen missed the race in 2010 during his two year sojourn into Rally driving while Alonso missed the race in 2016 while nursing a partially collapsed lung and cracked ribs following his massive crash in Melbourne that year.

Renault will be hoping Carlos Sainz can break his three race drought having never finished a race in Bahrain.

Bahrain International Circuit Career Track
Driver 2017 Best Ave Sts %Fin Best Ave Sts %Fin Bias
HAM 2 1 4.2 10 100 1 3.6 209 89 0.6
VET 1 1 2.9 9 78 1 3.9 200 86 -1
BOT 3 3 7.6 5 100 1 7.4 99 92 0.2
RAI 4 2 3.5 12 92 1 5.0 274 79 -1.5
RIC 5 4 8.3 6 100 1 8.2 130 86 0.1
VER 6 6 3 33 1 6.3 61 77 -0.3
PER 7 3 8.5 6 100 2 9.1 137 88 -0.6
OCO 10 10 10 1 100 5 10.9 30 97 -0.9
SAI 3 0 4 9.7 61 69
HUL 9 5 11.4 7 100 4 9.6 138 81 1.8
STR 1 0 3 11.4 21 81
GRO 8 3 6.3 6 100 2 10.3 125 74 -4
MAG 11 11 3 33 2 11.6 62 81 -0.6
ALO 14 1 6.8 12 100 1 5.6 294 82 1.2
VAN 10 10 2 50 7 11.4 22 73 -1.4
GAS 12 13.6 6 83
ERI 12 13 4 50 8 14.5 77 74 -1.5
HAR 13 14.3 5 60

OVERTAKES

Over the past 5 years Bahrain has been a great track for overtakes. Unlike Melbourne’s 2 overtakes in 2017 Bahrain had a total of 30 based on our overtaking criteria. Bahrain has consistently had a greater number of overtakes per race than the average of all tracks.

On the other hand, and much like Melbourne, the 2017 regs stifled the driver’s overtaking ability – total overtakes decreased by 54% from 2016 to 2017. The FIA tried to address this issue in Melbourne by adding a third DRS zone but this was seemingly ineffective.

Lets hope the 2020 Regs promote aerodynamic design that makes overtaking easier!

PITSTOPS

  • Two stops was the dominant strategy last year
  • The majority of cars pitted for their first stop under the safety car on lap 13
  • Hamilton  received a 5 second penalty for driving “unnecessarily slowly in the pit entry” in an effort to hold up Daniel Ricciardo – he subsequently lost to Vettel by 6.66 seconds (a beastly number!) but may have had a chance at the win without the penalty
  • 2nd stops ranged from lap 30 to lap 41 with lap 37 being the most popular strategy choice

RETIREMENTS

  • Only 14 cars finished the 2017 Bahrain Grand Prix
  • This was the equal third highest number of retirements for 2017 along with Azerbaijan

TRACK SPEED AND CORNERS

  • The average speed achieved over the entire race by the winning driver in 2017 was 197.1km/h
  • This puts Bahrain in the middle of the pack of all circuits in terms of average lap speed
  • The Bahrain circuit has a total of 15 turns, less than the average of 16.75 for circuits on the 2017 calendar but as we saw above overtaking is definitely not dependent on the number of corners!

WHAT TO LOOK OUT FOR

After starting last on the grid and retiring early in Bahrain in 2017 Kevin Magnussen will be keen to build on his strong performance in Melbourne two weeks ago.  His teammate Roman Grosjean has a very strong record here and will will also be on the hunt.  Can the Haas team wrangle their wheel nuts and capitalise on their early season pace?

The Dark Horse – The Ice Man.  Kimi Raikkonen’s record at Bahrain is one of contrasts – 8 podiums, a significantly favourable race track bias but a negative quali track bias – zero wins.  Can the Kimster put his quali demons to rest and give himself the opportunity to finally win in Bahrain?!

If Vettel can back up his Melbourne victory with a win in Bahrain he will put himself in a position that has led to a Championship victory on every other occasion it has historically occurred.

Either way, Melbourne performances suggest there could well be at least another five drivers in contention for the top step of the podium in Bahrain.

Survey – who will win the 2018 Bahrain GP?

Buckle Up F1: Everything you need to know ahead of the 2018 Australian Grand Prix

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The 2018 Formula 1 season is finally upon us. To coincide with the first race of the season F1 Bytes is introducing Buckle Up F1, a package of facts and stats to prepare you with everything you need to know to get the most out of the upcoming race. We intend to produce this package ahead of each race in 2018.

To kick things off, check out the F1 Bytes Race Map for last year’s Australian Grand Prix below. See here for some info on how to interpret the map. It gives you a quick overview of last year’s race activity and helps to set the scene for what we might have in store for us this year. If the map has you scratching your head, read on. We hope to answer all your questions about the Australian GP below.

FAST FACTS

  • 2018 will be the 34th Australian Grand Prix
  • 11 races were held in Adelaide between 1985 and 1995
    • In each year it was the season finale
  • 2018 will be the 23rd race held at Melbourne’s Albert Park
    • It has been the opening race of the season since 1996 (except for 2006 and 2010)
  • Last year’s podium places:
    • 1st. Sebastian Vettel (Ferrari)
    • 2nd  Lewis Hamilton (Mercedes)
    • 3rd  Valtteri Bottas (Mercedes)
  • Start times have varied over the years and this year is no exception:
    • New start time 4:10pm AEDT (UTC + 11)
  • All stats that follow relate to Melbourne’s Albert Park circuit (Adelaide GP data is not included)
  • F1 Bytes HQ is just a stone’s throw away, on Sydney’s Northern Beaches!

THE WINNER IN MELBOURNE PREDICTS THE CHAMPIONSHIP (SOMETIMES…)

Last year one of our readers pointed out that the winner of the opening race of the season goes on to win the Championship 50% of the time. We checked the figures and they were almost bang on: as of 2017 the opening race predicts the Championship with 48.5% accuracy.

But if we focus just on the 22 seasons where the opening race was held at Albert Park then the predictive accuracy jumps to a whopping 60%!  That’s right, 6 times out of ten the winner in Melbourne goes on to win the Championship – this is a race you want to win!

PODIUMS

  • Michael Schumacher has had the most success in Melbourne with four wins
  • Jensen Button has the second highest tally at three
  • Five other drivers have managed the top step twice: Vettel, Raikonnen, Rosberg, Hamilton and Coulthard

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The 2018 drivers have achieved the following podium places in Melbourne.

1st
2nd
Vettel (2x)
Hamilton (3x)
Räikkönen (2x)
3rd
Alonso (2x) Hamilton (2x) Vettel (3x)
Vettel (1x) Alonso (1x) Räikkönen (2x)
Räikkönen (1x) Hamilton (2x)
Magnussen (1x) Alonso (2x)
Bottas (1x)

LAP RECORDS

The table below shows the quickest laps in qualifying and during the race for both 2017 and over the full history at Albert Park.

Qualifying Race Difference
2017 1:22.188 (HAM) 1:26.538 (RAI) -0:04.350
Record 1:22.188 (2017 HAM) 1:24.125 (2004 MSC) -0:01.937

As we have previously discussed there were 11 lap records set in 2017 and Melbourne was one of them.  But as you can see the fastest race lap last year was over 4 seconds slower than qualifying.  Amazingly the record for fastest race lap was set by Michael Schumacher way back in 2004!

We’ll take a closer look at the evolution of quali v race pace in a future post.

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QUALIFYING

  • HAM, VET and RIC were the top points scorers for the 2017 season and each have a favourable qualifying track bias in Melbourne
  • Chili Sainz has the largest qualifying track bias (3.8 grid places)
  • Both Red Bull drivers are yet to land a pole at Albert Park
  • Bottas qualified 3rd last year versus a career average of 9.2 illusrating the massive leap his career has taken with Mercedes
    • He finished the 2017 season with two consecutive poles. Can he back it up in Melbourne 2018?
  • Alonso qualified five places lower than his career average in Melbourne last year. Will the new Renault power unit give the two time World Champion the opportunity to challenge for another title this year?
Melbourne Career
Driver 2017 Best Ave Starts Best Ave Starts Bias
HAM 1 1 3.7 11 1 3.8 208 -0.1
VET 2 1 4.4 10 1 4.9 198 -0.5
BOT 3 3 9.2 5 1 7.7 98 1.5
RAI 4 1 8.8 13 1 6.3 242 2.5
RIC 10 2 8.5 6 1 9.3 128 -0.8
VER 5 5 7.3 3 2 7.4 60 -0.1
PER 11 9 13.7 7 2 11.0 135 2.7
OCO 14 14 14 1 5 13.0 28 1
SAI 8 7 7.7 3 5 11.5 59 -3.8
HUL 12 7 11.1 7 1 10.0 136 1.1
STR 19 19 19 1 4 14.9 20 4.1
GRO 6 3 11 6 2 11.6 124 -0.6
MAG 17 4 13.5 4 4 13.6 60 -0.1
ALO 13 2 8 14 1 7.5 276 0.5
VAN 18 18 18 1 7 13.4 21 4.6
GAS 15 16.5 4
ERI 15 15 16.8 4 10 17.9 75 -1.1
HAR 13 16.5 4

HOW IMPORTANT IS QUALIFYING?

The following chart shows the percentage of wins that have occurred from each grid position in Melbourne and how this compares to the average for all circuits during the same seasons.

So even though a win in Melbourne predicts the Championship with 60% accuracy, landing pole position is not quite as critical as you might think.  Putting the car on front row is less important in Melbourne than the average for all tracks.

The most impressive win in Melbourne from a driver starting beyond the 3rd row of the starting grid was in 2003 – David Coulthard secured his last ever F1 victory after starting way back in 11th place!

RACE RESULT

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  • The local boy Dan Ricciardo has been strong in Melbourne with a 2 place track bias
  • But his luck has been poor only finishing in 3 of his 6 starts with a top place of 4th
  • Ricciardo actually celebrated 2nd place in 2014 before he was (controversially) disqualified for breaching the fuel flow limit
  • Kevin Magnussen slotted into the vacated 2nd place after Ricciardo’s departure – not bad for his first race in F1! That result together with the fact that he has only finished two races In Melbourne explains his high track bias
  • Similarly Marcus Erricson has the highest track bias in the field but note that he has only finished one race in Australia with a relatively high 8th position compared to his career average
  • In fact all drivers with a favourable track bias of over 1.5 places have a poor record for finishing races in Melbourne
    • This may suggest pushing too hard here has often led to either mechanical issues or driver error?
Melbourne Career Track
Driver 2017 Best Ave Sts %Fin Best Ave Sts %Fin Bias
HAM 2 1 2.8 11 82 1 3.6 208 89 -0.8
VET 1 1 3.7 10 70 1 3.9 199 86 -0.2
BOT 3 3 7.5 5 80 1 7.4 98 92 0.1
RAI 4 1 5.4 15 80 1 5.0 273 79 0.4
RIC 4 6.3 6 50 1 8.3 129 86 -2
VER 5 5 7.5 3 67 1 6.3 60 77 1.2
PER 7 7 9.8 7 86 2 9.1 136 88 0.7
OCO 10 10 10 1 100 5 10.9 29 97 -0.9
SAI 8 8 8.7 3 100 4 9.7 60 68 -1
HUL 11 6 7.8 7 57 4 9.6 137 81 -1.8
STR 1 0 3 11.2 20 80
GRO 6 8 6 33 2 10.3 124 74 -2.3
MAG 2 7 4 50 2 11.6 61 82 -4.6
ALO 1 4.3 15 87 1 5.6 293 82 -1.3
VAN 13 13 13 1 100 7 11.6 21 71 1.4
GAS 12 13.6 5 100
ERI 8 8 4 25 8 14.5 76 75 -6.5
HAR 13 14.0 4 50

OVERTAKES

Melbourne has not been a great circuit historically when it comes to overtakes. As we discussed here the new regulations introduced last year to increase speeds had an unfortunate dark side. The turbulent air left in the wake of the current F1 cars makes following them difficult.  This can negatively impact opportunities for overtaking.

This was certainly borne out in Melbourne last year with just 2 overtaking maneouvres completed based on our overtake criteria. Thankfully it appears the FIA are taking this problem seriously. It was recently announced that a third DRS zone will be introduced for the first time at Albert Park for 2018. Fingers crossed that this will help pave the way for a little more competitive action in Melbourne this year!

PITSTOPS

  • One stop was the dominant strategy last year although four drivers had two pit stops
  • Pit stops occurred on lap 19 on average for drivers making just one stop
  • Stoffel Vandoorne was the earliest of the one stoppers pitting on lap 9
  • Kimi Raikonnen was the latest of the one stoppers pitting on lap 26
  • The fastest pit stop (measured from pit entry to pit exit) was Valterri Bottas for Mercedes at 21.44 seconds

RETIREMENTS

  • Only 65% of cars finished the 2017 Melbourne Grand Prix
  • This was the second lowest number of cars to finish a race in 2017 after Singapore on 60%

TRACK SPEED AND CORNERS

  • The average speed achieved over the entire race by the winning driver in 2017 was 215.4km/h
  • This made Melbourne the 5th fastest circuit on the calendar in terms of average lap speed
  • Albert Park has a total of 16 turns, just under the average of 16.75 for circuits in the 2017 calendar

ROLL ON 2018…

It’s generally difficult to draw too many conclusions regarding ultimate performance from pre-season testing.  What does seem clear is that the mid pack looks to be extremely tight!

We’re sure most F1 fans would agree that the more constructors fighting for wins and the title the better.  Both Ferrari and Red Bull had a solid test in Barcelona indicating  that they both may be able to challenge Mercedes in 2018.  Perhaps an even bigger unknown is how close Renault and the “new” McLaren will be to the sharp end?  In Melbourne all will be revealed…

Buckle up – it’s time to go racing!!

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