Which are the Top Nations in Formula 1?

For almost seventy years Formula 1 has brought together drivers and teams from around the world to do battle on the racetrack. The sport has never been officially based on national teams but national pride has swelled the hearts of F1 fans since the beginning. The nationality of the drivers, the domicile of the teams and engine manufactures, and the location of the circuits themselves have remained key elements of the spectacle as the F1 circus traverses the globe each year.

So which are the top nations in Formula 1? Have they changed over time? Which countries manage to consistently produce F1 greatness despite relatively small populations?

We answer these questions and more as we investigate the role of nations in F1.

WHERE HAVE OUR F1 DRIVERS COME FROM?

As a starting point the chart below shows the distribution of nationalities of all drivers throughout F1 history.

British drivers top the scales in terms of pure numbers. A few other initial observations include:

  • As of 2017 a total of 842 drivers from 39 nations have competed in Formula 1 since the first GP in 1950
  • Drivers from the top 5 nations represent almost two thirds of all drivers
  • The number of American drivers seems surprisingly large given the low level of involvement from US drivers over recent decades

We can shed some light on this last point by looking at a time series of participation from the top nations.

As you can see American drivers dominated the sport (by number at least) for the first decade or so but have since played a far more limited role. The main reason for this is that from 1950 to 1961 the Indianapolis 500 was included in the official Formula 1 calendar. Not only did the Indy 500 have far more competitors than other Grand Prix, it was also composed almost exclusively of American drivers. In addition the United States Grand Prix was added to the calendar in 1959 so for two years there were two Formula 1 events held in the US.

A few other points to note from this time series view:

  • Britain has always been and continues to be well represented
  • Participation from the French peaked between the mid 1970s and mid 1990s before a significant decline. The recent uptick in participation has coincided with the re-emergence of the Renault works team and the reintroduction of the French GP for 2018.  Encouraging signs for the future role of the French in F1
  • While always contenders, the last decade or so represents the first time Germany has dominated driver participation
  • Italy’s participation is characterised by some dramatic shifts over time. At their peak in 1990 the number of Italian drivers was more than double the next most prominent nation.  In contrast there has only been one Italian driver in F1 in the last six years (Giovinazzi) despite the continued presence of the Italian GP, the resurgence of Ferrari as a top contender and the passionate support of the Tifosi each time F1 travels to Italy
  • Brazil has shown consistent participation in the sport since the 70s. It is the only country other than Britain to field at least one driver in every season since 1969.  Unfortunately this amazing run will end in 2018 following Felipe Massa’s retirement.

PARTICIPATION IS ONE THING – WHAT ABOUT SUCCESS?

So which Nations have provided World Champions?  This is a much shorter list.  Of the 39 nations represented by F1 drivers only 14 of them have seen their countrymen become Formula 1 World Champions.

The chart above counts all Championships even if some drivers have won more than one title.  Adjusting for multi-World-Champions the next chart shows the nationality of the individuals who have won at least one World Championship.

The Brits are way out in front on this measure.  Having removed the impact of multi-Championship winners like Schumacher, Vettel and Senna and Prost (among others) it’s clear that Great Britain has produced an impressive number of outstanding F1 drivers.

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So is Great Britain the top nation in F1?  In absolute numbers perhaps so but what about pound for pound?.   Dividing the data by national population shows us who produces the most world champions per capita.

This chart tells a very different story.  Those plucky Finns have punched well above their weight when it comes to F1 champs per million population.

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Will Kimi Raikkonen pass the baton to Valteri Bottas for the next one?  He’s certainly in the right machinery though he does have the problem of a 4x WDC British driver in the other Silver Arrow to contend with…

MORE DATA PLEASE!

These results are interesting enough.  But 33 individual World Champions is a pretty small data set from which to draw conclusions.  We can attempt to address this issue by looking at all drivers throughout F1 history who have scored at least one Grand Prix podium.  This will give us significantly more data to judge the nations who have enjoyed the most F1 success.

As you can see the British come out on top again for raw podiums.  Once again we’ll adjust this to show individual drivers who have podiumed (ie we only count each driver once even if they scored multiple podiums).

The Brits are still out front but the Americans are back in the game!  This is interesting as we’ve already seen that there have only been two American World Champions but we now see that 36 Americans have climbed the podium steps.  This is both surprising and encouraging.  As a global sport it would be great to see the US play a bigger role in F1 going forward and we’re confident new F1 owners Liberty media are on the case.

PODIUMS POUND FOR POUND

Again let’s divide by population to get the pound for pound results.

Monaco crushes the competition.  Unfortunately the tiny population of Monaco (less than 40k!) skews the results a little too far for our taste – they have actually only had a single citizen earn an F1 podium.  With all due respect to our Monagasque friends, lets redraw the chart ex-Monaco to get a closer look at the competition.

Our earlier analysis showing the strength of the Finns is borne out in the pound for pound podium analysis.  Seven Finns have scored at least one F1 podium from a country of only 5.5 million people.  There must be something in the water.  Perhaps they should bottle it and call it SISU?

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The Kiwis also deserve an honourable mention for edging out the ever strong Brits on a pound for pound basis.  Bruce Mclaren would no doubt be proud.  Now Brendan Hartley has a permanent drive can he add to the tally?

IN SUMMARY

Formula 1 has always been an international sport.  With 21 races now slated for the F1 calendar in 2018 the diversity of circuits and cultures that touch the sport is a huge part of its appeal.  The competitors themselves have also represented a diverse range of nations over Formula 1 history.

F1’s new owners are looking hard at ways to expand the reach of the sport even further.  Importantly this includes a significant effort to reignite the interest of American fans.  We look forward to seeing the results and continuing to vicariously travel the world with F1.

How good is Fernando Alonso really?

Sir Stirling Moss is often described as the greatest driver never to win a World Championship. Similarly, many believe Fernando Alonso should have won more than his current two Championships – that he is one of the best ever.

With a reported $40M a year pay packet McLaren clearly values Fernando’s abilities. His pedigree is indisputable. He was world karting champion at 15, made his F1 debut four years later and won his first World Championship four years after that.

WHAT MIGHT HAVE BEEN…

In addition to his two World Championships Alonso has come within just four points of a further three World Championship titles! Had the rub of the green gone his way those years we would now be talking about Fernando Alonso as a 5 time World Champion. Only 2 drivers in the history of the sport have won that many titles – Fangio (5) and Schumacher (7).

Let’s compare this to the other multiple World Champions on the grid today – Lewis Hamilton (3x WDC) and Sebastian Vettel (4x WDC). Amazingly Hamilton has also lost two World Championships by a mere five points or less. Vettel’s nearest miss of 11 points in 2009 wasn’t nearly so agonising (ok, maybe it was to Seb!).

Championships lost by Five Points or Less
Season Driver Lost To Margin
2007 Alonso Räikkönen 1 point
2007 Hamilton Räikkönen 1 point
2010 Alonso Vettel 4 points
2012 Alonso Vettel 3 points
2016 Hamilton Rosberg 5 points

Though these are certainly “coulda, woulda, shoulda” results they do show that both Fernando and Lewis could easily have been 5 time World Champions to Seb’s four with just a small tweak to history.

So just how good is Fernando Alonso?

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BACK TO REALITY

If we ignore the what-ifs the reality is that Alonso hasn’t won a Championship in 11 years and hasn’t won a race since the Spanish GP in 2013.

Is he still at the top of his game? Is it just bad timing and a lack of winning machinery that has stifled his career? The only way to really gauge the relative ability of a driver is to compare them to their teammates.  This takes differences in equipment largely out of the equation.  So let’s take a look at the Spaniard’s career results in our six teammate head to head factors (H2H).  A detailed explanation of the factors can be found here .

(Note: the two occasions where Alonso was beaten on H2H by his teammate are highlighted)

# Season Teammate Races H2H Winner
1 2001 Marques 14 (4/1/1) Alonso
2 2001 Yoong 3 (5/0/1) Alonso
3 2003 Trulli 16 (5/0/1) Alonso
4 2004 Trulli 15 (1/4/1) Trulli
5 2004 Villeneuve 3 (6/0/0) Alonso
6 2005 Fisichella 19 (6/0/0) Alonso
7 2006 Fisichella 18 (6/0/0) Alonso
8 2007 Hamilton 17 (3/1/2) Alonso
9 2008 Piquet Jr. 18 (6/0/0) Alonso
10 2009 Piquet Jr. 10 (6/0/0) Alonso
11 2009 Grosjean 7 (6/0/0) Alonso
12 2010 Massa 19 (6/0/0) Alonso
13 2011 Massa 19 (6/0/0) Alonso
14 2012 Massa 20 (6/0/0) Alonso
15 2013 Massa 19 (6/0/0) Alonso
16 2014 Räikkönen 19 (6/0/0) Alonso
17 2015 Button 18 (1/3/2) Button
18 2016 Button 20 (6/0/0) Alonso
19 2017 Vandoorne 13 (6/0/0) Alonso

We can get a feel for a driver’s overall H2H performance by averaging all of their individual head to head results.  Taking this approach we see that Alonso has won an average of 5.1 of the six H2H factors each year versus his teammates. Similarly he has lost just 0.5 factors and drawn 0.4 factors each year on average.

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Again let’s compare these results to his current multi-Championship-winning rivals. Averages of their respective H2H performances are shown in the table below.  The final column of the table boils each driver’s entire H2H history down into a single figure for comparison: Average Factor Wins less Average Factor Losses (AFW-AFL).

For those interested in more detail, clicking the drivers name in the table shows their full career H2H stats.

Driver Ave. Wins Ave. Losses Ave. Drawn AFW-AFL
Alonso 5.1 0.5 0.4 4.6
Vettel 4.4 1.2 0.4 3.2
Hamilton 4.3 1.1 0.6 3.2

Fernando Alonso clearly comes out on top with an AFW-AFL score of 4.6. Vettel has on average won slightly more H2H factors than Hamilton but has also lost more – the end result is a dead heat between these two champions with an AFW-AFL score of 3.2.

Further analysis shows Fernando and Lewis have each lost two H2H battles over their careers. Even when beaten though these two drivers have always managed to score at least one factor win against their teammates.

In contrast Seb has had only one H2H loss and one draw but that loss was a painful one.  He was resoundingly beaten by Daniel Ricciardo in 2014 failing to win a single H2H factor – the result: a 5-0 loss with one draw at the hands of the “smiling assassin”.

NOT ALL TEAMMATES ARE CREATED EQUAL

What about the caliber of their teammates? Perhaps Alonso’s superior H2H performance simply reflects teammates who were not as strong as those Hamilton and Vettel have faced?  Well, as an indication of teammate quality let’s take a look at specific H2H performances versus other World Champions.

Alonso has beaten no fewer than four teammates that were, or would become, F1 World Champions (Villeneuve, Hamilton, Raikkonen, Button). In comparison Hamilton has beaten two (Button, Rosberg) and Vettel one (Raikkonen).

A more detailed appraisal of relative teammate quality across the full career history of each driver is a significant undertaking (perhaps we’ll take a look at this in another post).  Suffice to say, Alonso’s has not exactly had an easy run of it against substandard drivers!

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THE ULTIMATE HEAD TO HEAD

In 2007 Fernando and Lewis were pitted against each other as McLaren teammates. That battle was extremely close with both drivers finishing on equal Championship points (and losing out to Kimi by a single point!). It was certainly close but ultimately Lewis was beaten by Fernando in our six head to head factors by 3 to 1 with 2 draws. Another tick to Alonso.

Season: 2007
Drivers: Alonso v Hamilton
Team: McLaren
Races: 17
H2H Winner: Alonso (3/1/2)
Alonso Hamilton Winner
Points 109 109 draw
Race Result 9 6 Alonso
Qualifying 8 9 Hamilton
Fastest Lap 9 8 Alonso
Laps in Top 10 1032 974 Alonso
Best Result 1st (x4) 1st (x4) draw

A COMMON DENOMINATOR

To try and further separate the relative ability of these two Champions there has been one significant common denominator for comparison – Jenson Button.

Both Alonso and Hamilton have been teamed against fellow World Champion Button over multiple years at McLaren during their careers. As a credit to JB he beat both these drivers in one season head to head.

In statistics the more data we have the more confidence we can generally have in our results.  So multi-season H2H battles provide a good opportunity to really measure a given matchup.  Combining the data across seasons we created multi-season H2H summaries for both Alonso and Hamilton versus Button.  The bottom line: Fernando beat Jenson in all six factors while Hamilton won only five – scoring less championship points than JB during their time together at McLaren.

Tight, but Alonso manages to come out on top again.

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A CONTROVERSIAL CAREER

Fernando Alonso’s career has been surrounded by its fair share of controversy – Crash Gate & Spy Gate stand out and more recently a multitude of amusing sound bites from the cockpit at Honda’s expense. However the Spaniard’s determination, race craft and pure speed have never been in doubt.

The reality is that it is extremely difficult to draw absolute conclusions when comparing F1’s top drivers.  Regardless, the analysis here supports the conclusion that even though he has only won two World Championships Alonso is one of the very best.

Whether Fernando will win another World Championship remains to be seen. For the good of the sport we hope he at least gets the opportunity to fight for one.

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