Can Robert Kubica Break an F1 Record in 2018?

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We at F1Bytes were super excited to hear that Robert Kubica has once again found himself behind the wheel of an F1 racecar. After a seven year absence Kubica demonstrated real pace in his recent testing with Renault. Clearly his injury has not blunted his incredible talent.

Is a fairy tale return to F1 possible? We certainly hope so. But the stats suggest it may be a tough road.

The Crash

Robert Kubica was tipped as a future world champion when he entered the sport in late 2006. He claimed a podium in only his second race and won the 2008 Canadian Grand Prix for BMW Sauber. Tragically in February 2011 the career of one of the most promising young Formula One drivers was cut short. An accident in a low-key rally in Italy left him with a partially severed right hand.

The Recovery

Following the crash and after years of rehabilitation Kubica was physically able to drive again. Ironically he focused on rally, managing to win the World Rally Championship-2 in 2013. Unfortunately it was thought that limited mobility in his right arm would preclude him from returning to F1.

However in early June 2017 Robert Kubica, now 32, tested a 2012-spec car for Renault at the Ricardo Tormo circuit in Valencia. Kubica out-paced the team’s quick junior driver Sergey Sirotkin (who drove the previous day) identifying the key areas of weakness in the car. The 115 laps completed were his first laps in an F1 car since a pre-season test at the same circuit in 2011. In that test, and just three days before his accident, Kubica had set the fastest time.

Following the June 2017 test Robert indicated he is now targeting a “proper comeback” to F1. So is a comeback feasible? And just how good was Robert Kubica?

How good was Robert Kubica?

In a generation that includes Lewis Hamilton, Fernando Alonso and Sebastian Vettel, Kubica was arguably the best of them all – according to Fernando! In 2012, Alonso told Autosport’s Jonathan Noble how Kubica was “the best driver of the group”. The two-time world champion, considered by many to be the most complete performer in F1, admitted Kubica was the one he feared the most.

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Lewis Hamilton was of a similar mind. He regarded Kubica as the best driver he had ever encountered as they made their way through karting and up the junior car racing ladder.

So what do the stats tell us? Below are the Head to Head stats between Kubica and Nick Heidfeld during their four years together at BMW Sauber. It was clearly a tightly fought battle but the stats suggest Kubica came out on top overall. “Quick Nick” had a longstanding and successful career including 13 podiums.

Season: 2006 – 2009
Drivers: Kubica v Heidfeld
Team: BMW Sauber
Races: 57
H2H Winner: Kubica (4/2/0)
Kubica Heidfeld Winner
Points 137 150 Heidfeld
Race Result 24 21 Kubica
Qualifying 28 29 Heidfeld
Fastest Lap 29 27 Kubica
Laps in Top 10 2510 2385 Kubica
Best Result 1st 2nd (6x) Kubica

In 2010 Kubica joined Renault and proceeded to wipe the statistical floor with his team mate, Vitaly Petrov, finishing eighth in the Championship.

Season: 2010
Drivers: Kubica v Petrov
Team: Renault
Races: 19
H2H Winner: Kubica (6/0/0)
Kubica Petrov Winner
Points 136 27 Kubica
Race Result 12 0 Kubica
Qualifying 17 2 Kubica
Fastest Lap 15 3 Kubica
Laps in Top 10 891 336 Kubica
Best Result 2nd 5th Kubica

Overall Kubica achieved one victory, 12 podiums, and 273 championship points during his 5 years in Formula One. Is there more to come?

A Kubica comeback in perspective

Notwithstanding Kubica’s long recovery from injury is there any precedent for a comeback after so long away from F1? In short…yes…but there’s records to be broken if it’s to be a successful comeback!

Below are the ten longest driver absences preceding an F1 comeback. In the right hand columns you can see the (conspicuously absent) podiums achieved by returning drivers.

# Driver Absence Returned Constructor 1st 2nd 3rd Total
1 Jan Lammers 3745 days 25-10-1992 March 0 0 0 0
2 Paddy Driver 3745 days 30-03-1974 Team Lotus 0 0 0 0
3 Luca Badoer 3584 days 23-08-2009 Ferrari 0 0 0 0
4 Gene Force 3288 days 30-05-1960 Kurtis Kraft 0 0 0 0
5 Pete Lovely 3226 days 20-09-1969 Lotus-Ford 0 0 0 0
6 Peter Revson 2583 days 03-10-1971 Tyrrell 2 2 4 8
7 Eppie Wietzes 2583 days 22-09-1974 Brabham 0 0 0 0
8 Mike Parkes 2542 days 03-07-1966 Ferrari 0 2 0 2
9 Bruno Giacomelli 2402 days 13-05-1990 Life 0 0 0 0
10 Mike Hailwood 2289 days 05-09-1971 Surtees 0 1 1 2

Let’s for a moment assume Kubica returns to F1 for the first round of the 2018 Season. He would have not raced in Formula 1 for 2,688 days – no driver has ever scored a podium finish after that duration out of the sport!

Below are the top 25 drivers (ranked on duration out of the sport) who achieved at least one podium post comeback. Those drivers achieving more than 5 podiums are highlighted.

# Driver Absence Returned Constructor 1st 2nd 3rd Total
1 Peter Revson 2583 days 03-10-1971 Tyrrell 2 2 4 8
2 Mike Parkes 2542 days 03-07-1966 Ferrari 0 2 0 2
3 Mike Hailwood 2289 days 05-09-1971 Surtees 0 1 1 2
4 Roberto Moreno 1947 days 01-11-1987 AGS 0 1 0 1
5 Alexander Wurz 1645 days 24-04-2005 McLaren 0 0 2 2
6 Stefan Johansson 1266 days 16-07-1983 Spirit 0 4 8 12
7 Timo Glock 1239 days 16-03-2008 Toyota 0 2 1 3
8 Michael Schumacher 1239 days 14-03-2010 Mercedes 0 0 1 1
9 Paul Russo 1096 days 30-05-1953 Kurtis Kraft 0 1 0 1
10 Pat Flaherty 1096 days 30-05-1953 Kuzma 1 0 0 1
11 Lucien Bianchi 1078 days 26-05-1968 Cooper-BRM 0 0 1 1
12 Pedro de la Rosa 903 days 03-04-2005 McLaren 0 1 0 1
13 Èric Bernard 889 days 27-03-1994 Ligier 0 0 1 1
14 Romain Grosjean 868 days 18-03-2012 Lotus F1 0 2 8 10
15 Kimi Räikkönen 868 days 18-03-2012 Lotus F1 2 14 10 26
16 Niki Lauda 846 days 23-01-1982 McLaren 8 5 2 15
17 Jean-Pierre Jabouille 741 days 16-07-1977 Renault 2 0 0 2
18 Lucien Bianchi 735 days 13-06-1965 BRM 0 0 1 1
19 Jim Rathmann 731 days 30-05-1952 Kurtis Kraft 1 3 0 4
20 Jimmy Davies 731 days 30-05-1953 Kurtis Kraft 0 0 1 1
21 John Love 731 days 02-01-1967 Cooper-Climax 0 1 0 1
22 Ron Flockhart 728 days 14-07-1956 BRM 0 0 1 1
23 Onofre Marimón 721 days 21-06-1953 Maserati 0 0 2 2
24 Mario Andretti 714 days 22-09-1974 Parnelli 11 2 4 17
25 Olivier Gendebien 714 days 15-06-1958 Ferrari 0 1 1 2

The list contains some significant names: Revson, Raikkonen, Lauda, Andretti. In fact Kimi Raikonnen had a similar career path to Kubica going from F1 to rally and back to F1, although for completely different reasons to Robert. Kimi was also only out of the sport for a comparatively brief 868 days. Needless to say if Kubica is to come back he will need to cover some unprecedented ground to be successful.

Should Kubica indeed mount a “proper comeback” and should his performance in the recent Renault test be replicated in grands prix, this could be one of the truly great sporting comebacks. We at F1Bytes very much hope to see it happen. Go Robert!

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Nico Rosberg Joins an Exclusive Club

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Nico Rosberg shocked us all by deciding to retire after winning the 2016 Drivers Championship. In doing so he joined an exclusive club.

The following table shows the full list of drivers throughout F1 history who did not defend their championship title the following year.

Season Driver
1951 Juan Manuel Fangio
1958 Mike Hawthorn
1970 Jochen Rindt
1973 Sir Jackie Stewart
1992 Nigel Mansell
1993 Alain Prost
2016 Nico Rosberg

We can add two additional names to the list if we look at champions who did not compete in the first race of the season following their championship victory.

Season Driver
1951 Juan Manuel Fangio
1953 Alberto Ascari
1958 Mike Hawthorn
1970 Jochen Rindt
1973 Sir Jackie Stewart
1992 Nigel Mansell
1993 Alain Prost
1996 Damon Hill
2016 Nico Rosberg

It is an incredible thing to leave a sport at the very height of your powers. There’s a fascinating story behind each and every one…

Juan Manuel Fangio

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Having been narrowly beaten by Nino Farina in F1 racing’s inaugural world championship in 1950, Fangio came good a year later as three wins and two other podiums proved enough to propel him to a first championship crown in 1951.  Unfortunately Alfa Romeo, with whom the Argentinian had competed in both seasons, withdrew ahead of the ’52 campaign leaving Fangio without a drive.

Fangio appeared to have a seat at BRM but he was badly injured in a crash at a non-championship race at Monza. He received multiple injuries, including a broken neck, and missed the entire eight-race calendar while recuperating. Fangio would return in 1953, and though he failed to secure the championship that year he went on to claim four more titles.

Alberto Ascari

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In 1952 Ascari drove his Ferrari 500 to victory in six of the seven championship races to take the Title. In 1953 he again overpowered the opposition, winning five times and cruising to a second successive driving title.

Following a dispute over his salary, Ascari left Ferrari at the end of the ’53 season and switched to Lancia for the 1954 campaign. Unfortunately Lancia didn’t have a car ready for the start of the season so Ascari failed to start in the first race of his title defense. When the Lancia D50 was ready to race, Ascari took pole position on its debut but was ultimately beaten to the title by Fangio.

Mike Hawthorn

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If Fangio’s lack of title defence was fleeting, Mike Hawthorn became the first man to actively decide to retire following a championship triumph. Bow-tie-wearing and pipe-smoking Hawthorn was king of cool in the mid to late 1950s. After securing the Le Mans win with Jaguar in 1955 Hawthorn went on to become Britain’s first world champion in 1958, beating compatriot Stirling Moss to the title by a solitary point. It was reported that Hawthorn had been deeply affected by the loss of team mate and friend Peter Collins during that year’s German Grand Prix and whether because of that and/or a possible health issue he stepped away from the sport after claiming the title.

Tragically Hawthorn would lose his life in a road accident in 1959. The World Champion was not yet 30 years old.

Jochen Rindt

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Renowned as a brilliantly talented driver who was spectacular to watch, the flamboyant Rindt had become the man to beat in F1 in 1970. Rindt had already won five of the nine races thrusting the Austrian into a clear 20 point championship lead.

During practice for the Italian Grand Prix at Monza Rindt was testing his Lotus with no wings in an attempt to reduce drag. He lost control coming into the Parabolica and tragically crashed to his death. His lead was such that no one was able to deprive Rindt of the 1970 title – and the Austrian remains (thankfully) the first and only posthumous champion in F1 history.

Sir Jackie Stewart

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Sir Jackie Stewart was already firmly established as the F1 benchmark by the start of 1973, having won two world championships and racked up 14 poles, 22 victories and 35 podiums since a startling debut season in 1965.

The Scot had already confided in team boss and friend Ken Tyrrell that ’73 would be his last season.  With an insurmountable lead in the Championship and only two races left – in Canada and the USA – it was supposed to be a farewell tour.

In Stewart’s penultimate race weekend, his Tyrrell team mate and protege Francois Cevert was killed in a violent crash aged just 29. The Scot retired immediately, one race earlier than planned in what would have been his 100th Grand Prix. He would never race in F1 again.

Nigel Mansell

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The moustachioed Briton also left the sport at the height of his powers – but unlike Jackie Stewart, Mansell’s exit was not entirely of his own choosing. Having agonisingly missed out on a first title several times, Mansell finally made good in 1992 with Williams. Unfortunately he managed to fall out with the team over pay demands and a misunderstanding about the nature and timing of Alain Prost’s deal with the squad for the following 1993 season.

Though he left the F1 arena as Champion Mansell’s talent was further cemented with his switch to IndyCars yielding an immediate Championship. “Our Nige” as the Brits would say became the only man to hold the F1 and IndyCar crowns at the same time.

Alain Prost

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A sabbatical in 1992 after his very public falling-out with Ferrari half-way through 1991 had recharged the batteries of the three-time world champion Alain Prost. He replaced the America-bound Mansell at Williams for the 1993 season. At the time, Prost had a one-year clause that precluded Ayrton Senna from becoming his team mate. That honour instead went to Damon Hill, who ended up pushing Prost hard – as did Senna, who was still at McLaren. Prost and Williams were too strong to be denied and he romped to a fourth crown, taking 13 pole positions and seven victories. The triumph came just days after Prost announced his retirement. With the clause in his contract preventing Senna from being his team-mate having expired Prost made way for the Brazilian. For the second year running, F1 did not have a defending champion.

Damon Hill

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After finishing second to Michael Schumacher in 1994 and 1995, Damon Hill finally saw his chance to build a strong title challenge in 1996, with Schumacher moving to Ferrari and rookie Jacques Villeneuve joining him at Williams.  While leading the Championship by 13 points Williams  told Hill he was not the future of the team and would not have a contract the following year.  In what must have been a huge blow to a racing driver’s confidence Hill could only try to complete the WDC. He did so in style, winning the last race of the year in Japan and finally matching the Championship feat achieved by his father Graham.

Not ready to hang up the helmet Hill had a couple of teams to choose from for 1997. He ended up signing for relative minnow Arrows. Although he was close to victory in an inspiring race in Hungary, he spent most of 1997 at the back of the field. In his first race Of the season he only qualified 20th and during the warm-up lap, his throttle jammed and he was forced to retire before the lights even went green. The result – the reigning F1 Champion did not start the first race of his title defence.

Nico Rosberg

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Unlike many on this list, there was precious little forewarning of Rosberg’s decision to retire following his draining first title in 2016.  After yet another season long battle with Lewis Hamilton in the dominant Mercedes Rosberg announced his retirement just five days after securing the crown – and just a few hours before his official coronation. “Since 25 years in racing, it has been my dream, my ‘one thing’ to become Formula One World Champion,” Rosberg said. “I have climbed my mountain, I am on the peak, so this feels right.”

Nico Rosberg has joined an exclusive club.  Each of these drivers is a hero of the sport who for very different reasons failed to line up on the grid to defend their F1 Championship title. 2016 may not have been the best season in formula 1 history but it was certainly a bitter fight to the final nail-biting finish. It’s still early days for the 2017 season but one thing’s for certain: we will have a new Champion.

 

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