Who is the Best Value Driver on the 2018 F1 Grid? The Story So Far…

A modern F1 Team comprises a large number of supremely talented individuals coming together to collectively produce magic on the racetrack. However it is the drivers alone who are traditionally viewed as the superstars of the sport. And like many globally recognisable sports stars the biggest names in F1 often attract very large pay cheques.

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As we discussed in our 2017 mid-season bang for buck piece F1 is a complex business. Teams, especially the manufacturers, are prepared to pay tens of millions of dollars to leverage off the personal branding of their star drivers. Driver salaries and bonus structures are generally commercial in confidence but a bit of knowledge and logic enables one to extrapolate a ballpark figure for driver salaries.

Website TSM Sportz did just that with the 2018 grid.  A few of their estimates definitely feel over-inflated (Vandoorne, Raikkonen and Stroll particularly) so standard disclaimers apply when judging the veracity of these numbers given the lack of hard evidence.

Branding and marketing aside once the lights go out teams pay their drivers for ultimately one thing – to score Championship Points! So as a Championship Point scoring investment how does each driver compare?

Following 12 out of 21 races so far in the 2018 season we adjust each driver’s annual salary on a pro rata basis ($ x 12 / 21) and then divide by their WDC points to date. The resulting $/point ranking gives us a good rough and ready ranking for driver value for money – their respective bang for buck. Some interesting results ensue…

2018 MID-SEASON BANG FOR BUCK

Rank Driver Team Salary WDC Points $ / Point
1 Charles Leclerc Sauber $150,000 13 $6,593
2 Pierre Gasly Toro Rosso $350,000 26 $7,692
3 Carlos Sainz Renault $750,000 30 $14,286
4 Daniel Ricciardo Red Bull $6,000,000 118 $29,056
5 Kevin Magnussen Haas $2,580,000 45 $32,762
6 Valtteri Bottas Mercedes $12,000,000 132 $51,948
7 Max Verstappen Red Bull $10,000,000 105 $54,422
8 Marcus Ericsson Sauber $500,000 5 $57,143
9 Esteban Ocon Force India $3,000,000 29 $59,113
10 Nico Hülkenberg Renault $5,500,000 52 $60,440
11 Sergio Pérez Force India $5,000,000 30 $95,238
12 Brendon Hartley Toro Rosso $350,000 2 $100,000
13 Romain Grosjean Haas $4,450,000 21 $121,088
14 Lewis Hamilton Mercedes $50,000,000 213 $134,138
15 Kimi Räikkönen Ferrari $40,000,000 146 $156,556
16 Sebastian Vettel Ferrari $60,000,000 189 $181,406
17 Lance Stroll Williams $1,800,000 4 $257,143
18 Fernando Alonso McLaren $30,000,000 44 $389,610
19 Stoffel Vandoorne McLaren $7,000,000 8 $500,000
20 Sergey Sirotkin Williams $150,000 0

In 2017 Esteban Ocon had the best $/point ranking and in 2018 a rookie once again takes the crown. The young Monagasque Charles Leclerc tops the tables at the mid-season break though it was extremely close. Another rookie having a sensational season is Pierre Gasly with a $/point score only around $1,000/point behind Leclerc.

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Interestingly in 2017 Ocon’s $/point was only $2,261 – more than three times better value than Leclerc this year. The difference is predominantly due to the relative strength of the driver’s teams this year with Force India having a more difficult 2018 and Sauber significantly improved from last year.

WHAT ELSE DID WE LEARN

One significant change from 2017 is the performance (and value) of the two HAAS drivers. In 2017 Roman Grosjean and Keven Magnussen could not be separated in our head to head results. Their bang for buck score was also extremely close with Grosjean only just beating his teammate on a value for money basis. In 2018  KMag is a clear winner in the head to head and consequently represents nearly four times better $/point value than his teammate.

McLaren have definitely improved their performance from last year with Fernando Alonso securing 44 points to date compared to only 10 at the mid-season break in 2017. Even so the double World Champion and Stoffel Vandoorne represent the two worst drivers in the $/point value rankings (not including the hapless Sergey Sirotkin – the only driver yet to score a point this season). Few would doubt Alonso’s ability to eek out every point possible from the car at his disposal but McLaren are surely looking closely at the business case for retaining his team mate for 2019.

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At Renault even though Hulkenburg is beating Sainz in their head to head battle it is the Spaniard who represents the best value in the $/point rankings. Chilli Sainz will lose his Renault drive in 2019 but surely at number three in the value rankings the Spaniard will still be able to secure a race seat for next year?!

THE SHARP END OF THE GRID

Of the top three teams there is a clear winner for the best value for money. Sitting 5th in the Championship and with a relatively modest pay packet compared to the other Mercedes, Ferrari and Red Bull drivers Daniel Ricciardo stands out as a solid investment.

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The fact that Red Bull Racing weren’t able to keep the Australian for 2019 would tend to indicate that Renault decided to offer Ricciardo a significant increase to his current salary for next year (rumours have the figure at $75M over the two years). Renault’s 2019 lineup will arguably be one of the strongest on the grid and it will be fascinating to see how the Hulk and Honey Badger measure up in their head to head and $/point value during the season. With Nico Hulkenberg having never made a podium (amazingly!) he now has the opportunity to measure himself directly against one of the very best drivers in the sport.

Following Ricciardo’s announcement of his move to Renault the final pieces of the driver lineup puzzle for 2019 should start to fall into place. Will Sainz and Leclerc’s 2018 performance and value secure them seats at Red Bull and Ferrari respectively? What of Fernando Alonso’s future and who will miss out on a 2019 seat when the music stops?…

Hamilton’s Playground – All the Stats and Form Guide for the British GP

After an action packed race in Austria F1 now moves on to the final race of the first back to back triple header – the iconic British GP.

The British GP is the oldest on the F1 calendar as the 1950 Silverstone race was the first in the inaugural Championship. The 2018 race will be the 52nd time at Silverstone with both Aintree and Brands Hatch having also hosted the event.

Mercedes had a race to forget at the Red Bull Ring but with Lewis Hamilton a five time winner and crowd favourite at Silverstone the Brit will be hoping for a turn of fortune at his home race this Sunday.

WHAT HAPPENNED HERE LAST YEAR?

As you can see from the graph Lewis Hamilton was imperious last year and lead from start to finish. Not only that he achieved the grand slam by also taking the fastest lap.

Other standout drives were Valteri Bottas and Daniel Ricciardo. Bottas started 9th after a 5 place grid penalty but managed to get 2nd after passing both Ferraris.

Ricciardo started second last after a turbo failure in quali but from there the Aussie had a blinder finally finishing 5th with an unusual two stop strategy.

Seb Vettel had a tyre blowout on the second last lap relegating him to 7th – the result was that Lewis closed the Championship lead to one point – coincidentally Seb’s current lead in 2018!

HOME TOWN HERO RULES THE PODIUM

Hamilton’s win in 2017 bought his tally to five – equaling the great Jim Clarke and Alain Prost with the most ever at the British GP.

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With only one podium each at Silverstone both Red Bull drivers will hope the pace shown in Austria carries on to Britain.

1st
2nd
Hamilton (5x)
Alonso (3x)
Alonso (2x)
3rd
Bottas (2x) Vettel (1x) Räikkönen (4x)
Hamilton (1x) Räikkönen (1x) Vettel (2x)
Räikkönen (1x) Hamilton (1x)
Verstappen (1x) Ricciardo (1x)
Vettel (1x) Alonso (1x)

LAP RECORDS

For the first time this year the qualifying lap record wasn’t set in 2017!  Well in fact it was…the 2009 record set by Seb Vettel was on the Bridge Grand Prix Circuit which is 750m shorter than the current configuration. Lewis’ 2017 lap smashed the previous Arena Circuit lap record by nearly 2.5 seconds.

It should be no surprise for regular readers of our Form Guide’s to see Michael Schumacher and his magnificent 2004 Ferrari holding the overall race lap record. What’s different this time is again this record was set on the shortened Bridge Circuit. Still it’s a nice coincidence to see the German on the table again.

Qualifying Race Difference
2017 1:26.600 (HAM) 1:30.621 (HAM) -0:04.021
Record 1:18.119 (2009 VET) 1:18.739 (2004 MSC) -0:00.620

WHO HAS THE QUALIFYING EDGE AT SILVERSTONE?

The two Ferrari drivers have the edge over their Mercedes counterparts in terms of quali bias at Silverstone. Both Ferrari drivers have on average qualified around 1 place better here than their career average.

Dan Ricciardo has the worst quali bias of all drivers at Silverstone at over three places worse than his career average. He will be hoping to turn this trend around after being let down by his car at the last outing in Austria.

Both Ocon and Vandoorne made Q3 in their first race at Silverstone last year giving them equal best figures in terms of quali bias.

Silverstone Circuit Career
Driver 2017 Best Ave Starts Best Ave Starts Bias
HAM 1 1 5.1 11 1 3.8 215 1.3
VET 3 1 3.6 10 1 4.8 205 -1.2
BOT 4 4 9.8 5 1 7.4 105 2.4
RAI 2 1 5.3 13 1 6.2 249 -0.9
RIC 20 4 12.3 7 1 9.1 135 3.2
VER 5 3 7 3 2 7.5 67 -0.5
PER 7 7 11.3 7 2 11.0 142 0.3
OCO 8 8 8 1 5 12.4 35 -4.4
SAI 14 8 10 3 5 11.3 66 -1.3
HUL 6 4 9.3 7 1 10.0 143 -0.7
STR 16 16 16 1 4 15.4 27 0.6
GRO 10 8 10.7 6 2 11.8 131 -1.1
MAG 17 5 12.7 3 4 13.3 67 -0.6
ALO 13 1 7.4 15 1 7.6 283 -0.2
VAN 9 9 9 1 7 13.4 28 -4.4
GAS 6 14.9 11
ERI 19 15 18.3 3 10 17.9 82 0.4
HAR 11 15.9 11

HOW IMPORTANT IS QUALIFYING?

As always pole will be important on Sunday but historically it has not been quite as critical at Silverstone. With over 50 races having been run at Silverstone the graph below includes a solid sample size.

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Only five of the last 14 races have been won from pole. What must bring a lot of confidence to Lewis Hamilton is that he has achieved three of those five – starting from pole and winning in the last three GP’s. The proportion of wins from outside the front two rows is a little lower than average but the 2nd to 4th grid positions have managed more victories here than is typical elsewhere.

The lowest grid position to go on and win the race was 7th and is held by Emerson Fittipaldi in his McLaren in 1975.

RACE RESULTS: WHO PUNCHES ABOVE THEIR WEIGHT?

While the Championship leader Seb Vettel has won at Silverstone he has has an unfavourable track bias of 0.7 places in the race results. This is in part due to the fact that he has failed to finish one in five races at the circuit – the worst percentage of retirements of all drivers who have raced here at least 5 times, except for Roman Grosjean who has retired twice from six starts.

In contrast Seb’s Ferrari teammate Kimi Raikonnen has performed well here with a favourable track bias of  0.8 places. The Kimster’s strong 2nd place in Austria tightened up the Ferrari Head to Head results so he will be hoping to make the most of his track bias.

Silverstone Circuit Career Track
Driver 2017 Best Ave Sts %Fin Best Ave Sts %Fin Bias
HAM 1 1 3.8 11 100 1 3.6 215 89 0.2
VET 7 1 4.6 10 80 1 3.9 206 86 0.7
BOT 2 2 7 5 100 1 7.2 105 91 -0.2
RAI 3 1 4.2 15 87 1 5.0 280 79 -0.8
RIC 5 3 8.7 7 86 1 8.1 136 85 0.6
VER 4 2 3 3 67 1 6.2 67 76 -3.2
PER 9 6 10.3 7 86 2 9.2 143 88 1.1
OCO 8 8 8 1 100 5 10.7 36 92 -2.7
SAI 8 8 3 33 4 9.5 67 72 -1.5
HUL 6 6 8.6 7 100 4 9.5 144 81 -0.9
STR 16 16 16 1 100 3 11.7 27 81 4.3
GRO 13 6 12.5 6 67 2 10.4 131 73 2.1
MAG 12 7 12 3 100 2 11.4 68 82 0.6
ALO 1 7.1 16 88 1 5.6 300 81 1.5
VAN 11 11 11 1 100 7 11.6 28 75 -0.6
GAS 4 12.0 12 83
ERI 14 11 12.5 4 50 8 14.3 83 76 -1.8
HAR 10 14.6 11 64

UNUSUAL OVERTAKES STATS

There have traditionally been some fantastic overtakes at Silverstone. Some might remember Nigel Mansell’s deft dummy on his team mate Nelson Piquet in 1987 or Mark Webber’s brilliant dice and overtake of the Ferrari clad Fernando Alonso in 2012.

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There is no doubt Silverstone can provide some brilliant racing but what is interesting is that over the last four years the number of overtakes in the race (as per our definition) have been the inverse to the average of all tracks.

Unlike many of the other circuits in 2017 Silverstone saw a healthy 37 overtakes. Lets hope that bodes well or another great race in 2018.

PITSTOPS

One stop was the dominant pit stop strategy last year.  Of the 11 drivers making only one stop the pit lap ranged from lap 20 to lap 37.

TRACK SPEED AND CORNERS

Silverstone is a fast, flowing track with an average speed last year for the winning driver of 221.3km/h.  This made it the third fastest track on the calendar in terms of average speed despite having a higher than average number of corners at 18.

WILL LEWIS MAKE IT 4 FROM 4?

Lewis Hamilton has been the dominant force at Silverstone over the past three years – three poles and three race wins is a dangerous precedent. Prior to the various issues Mercedes experienced at last weeks race the team looked very strong. That combined with Hamilton’s love of Silverstone surely makes him odds on for a fourpeat!

Will Lewis do it again?

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