F1 Bytes

We didn’t think the racing could get much better after China – but then came Baku! The last three Grand Prix have seen some spectacular racing.

F1 now moves on to the Circuit de Barcelona-Catalunya for the Spanish GP and the fifth race of the season.  With racing dating back to 1913, well before the first Formula One World Championship in 1950, the Spanish GP is one of the oldest on the calendar. The current circuit was first used in 1991 and has been home to the Spanish GP in every each year since.

Teams and drivers know the track well with pre-season testing taking place at the circuit although with generally much cooler temperatures than expected for the race weekend.

Will the Spanish GP match the excitement of Azerbaijan? Buckle up – here’s everything you need to know ahead of the race weekend.

WHAT HAPENNED HERE LAST YEAR?

• In 2017 Hamilton started on pole and won the race
• Vettel was second on the grid and finished second though he had a great race with Lewis after taking the lead on the first corner
• Raikonnen, Verstappen and Bottas collided on lap one with the first two retiring. Valteri then retired on lap 38 with an engine failure while running in 3rd position
• Ricciardo managed to steal 3rd place after starting 6th on the grid
• Kvyat had a superb race starting 19th on the grid and finishing in the points in 9th
• Wehlein started 15 and and finished 8th scoring the first of Sauber’s two points finishes for the season
• Unfortunately for Daniil and Pascal their great drives weren’t enough for them to retain their seats in 2018

F1 HAS A LONG HISTORY IN SPAIN

• This year will see the 48th running of the Spanish Grand Prix under the “modern” F1 World Championship
• The first event was held in 1951 (the second ever F1 season) at the Circuit de Pedrables
• The event has been held at 5 different circuits in the intervening years
• The event has been held continuously since 1986 with 5 races at the Circuito de Jerez followed by 28 races at the the Circuit de Barcelona-Catalunya

PODIUMS

Two drivers have won more grand prix at the Circuit de Barcelona-Catalunya than any of the current drivers: Michael Schumacher with six victories and Mika Hakkinen with three.

Embed from Getty Images

The graphic below shows the podiums achieved in Spain by the current driver lineup.

	1st
2nd	Räikkönen (2x)
Alonso (4x)	Hamilton (2x)	3rd
Hamilton (3x)	Alonso (2x)	Vettel (3x)
Räikkönen (2x)	Vettel (1x)	Ricciardo (2x)
Vettel (1x)	Verstappen (1x)	Alonso (1x)
		Räikkönen (1x)
		Hamilton (1x)

LAP RECORDS

Michael Schumacher set the overall record at this circuit in his 2006 qualifying session but this time is not really the benchmark any more.  A chicane was added in 2007 in an attempt to promote overtaking opportunities (more on this below). So Hamilton’s quali time last year set the record for the fastest time on the current layout.

Kimi Raikonnen’s race lap record on the current track layout remains from 10 years ago. The Ice Man’s time was nearly two seconds quicker that Hamilton’s fasted lap last year. As we’ve noted in our other 2018 pre-race track reviews the current F1 rules are significantly limiting lap times on race day compared qualifying pace.

	Qualifying	Race	Difference
2017	1:19.149 (HAM)	1:23.593 (HAM)	-0:04.444
Circuit Record	1:14.637 (2006 MSC)	1:15.641 (2005 FIS)	-0:01.004
Layout Record	1:19.149 (2017 HAM)	1:21.670 (2008 RAI)	-0:02.521

QUALIFYING

The stats show some interesting qualifying trends among the top teams in Spain. Both the Ferrari drivers have unfavourable quali biases with Kimi averaging a full place lower on the grid in Spain compared to his average for all circuits. Seb’s relative form has been almost as bad with an unfavourable 0.8 place bias.  In contrast the Mercedes drivers each have around half a place favourable track bias and the Red Bull drivers have excellent track biases of 1 and 2.4 places for Ricciardo and Verstappen respectively.

Embed from Getty Images

With the Ferraris, Mercedes, and Red Bull’s one lap pace very close will Max and Dan’s great track bias give them the edge in qualifying in 2018?

The top quali bias in Spain goes to Chilli Sainz with a favourable bias of 3.1 places from his three races here to date. This is in stark contrast to his Renault teammate with Hulk Hulkenberg having an unfavourable 3.4 place bias. Can Chilli turn this 6.5 place spread to his advantage and gain some ground in the Renault head to head battle?

	Circuit de Barcelona-Catalunya				Career
Driver	2017	Best	Ave	Starts	Best	Ave	Starts	Bias
HAM	1	1	3.4	11	1	3.8	212	-0.4
VET	2	2	5.6	10	1	4.8	202	0.8
BOT	3	3	7	5	1	7.6	102	-0.6
RAI	4	1	7.2	13	1	6.2	246	1
RIC	6	3	8.2	6	1	9.2	132	-1
VER	5	4	5	3	2	7.4	64	-2.4
PER	8	6	10.6	7	2	11.0	139	-0.4
OCO	10	10	10	1	5	12.8	32	-2.8
SAI	12	5	8.3	3	5	11.4	63	-3.1
HUL	13	11	13.4	7	1	10.0	140	3.4
STR	18	18	18	1	4	15.0	24	3
GRO	14	4	9.2	6	2	11.7	128	-2.5
MAG	11	11	13.7	3	4	13.4	64	0.3
ALO	7	1	5.3	15	1	7.5	280	-2.2
VAN	19	19	19	1	7	13.5	25	5.5
GAS	–	–	–	–	6	15.8	8	–
ERI	16	16	17.8	4	10	17.9	79	-0.1
HAR	–	–	–	–	11	15.9	8	–

HOW IMPORTANT IS QUALIFYING?

Pole position has been crucially important at this circuit. Historically over 74% of race winners started on pole. Only 11.1% of races have been won from outside the front row of the grid. If the poor qualifying bias of the two Ferrari drivers is indicative of their performance this year it may be a tough circuit for the Scuderia. But read on… there’s a twist when we consider the stats from the race results.

RACE RESULT

Recall that both Ferrari drivers had poor qualifying track biases in Spain while the Mercedes drivers have performed well in quali here relative to their career averages. Well, for race results these biases are flipped 180 degrees. Both Merc drivers have unfavourable track biases (a full 1.8 places for Lewis) while the Ferrari drivers have each tended to finish about half a place better in Spain than their career average.

In our opinion the quali bias is the more important factor in Spain given how critical it is to land on the front row. But the switch for the race bias for the Ferrari drivers is very interesting and bodes well if they can make the most of their opportunities in quali!

Force India had a terrific result here last year with 4th and 5th.  While Ocon has only had one outing in Spain his fifth place gives him the prize for top track bias as this result was 5.9 places ahead of his career average finishing position.

	Circuit de Barcelona-Catalunya					Career				Track
Driver	2017	Best	Ave	Sts	%Fin	Best	Ave	Sts	%Fin	Bias
HAM	1	1	5.4	11	91	1	3.6	212	89	1.8
VET	2	1	3.3	10	90	1	3.9	203	86	-0.6
BOT	–	4	7.5	5	80	1	7.3	102	91	0.2
RAI	–	1	4.5	15	67	1	5.0	277	79	-0.5
RIC	3	3	6.7	6	100	1	8.2	133	85	-1.5
VER	–	1	6	3	67	1	6.3	64	75	-0.3
PER	4	4	8.5	7	86	2	9.2	140	88	-0.7
OCO	5	5	5	1	100	5	10.9	33	94	-5.9
SAI	7	6	7.3	3	100	4	9.6	64	70	-2.3
HUL	6	6	12	7	86	4	9.5	141	81	2.5
STR	16	16	16	1	100	3	11.4	24	83	4.6
GRO	10	4	10.4	6	83	2	10.4	128	73	0
MAG	14	12	13.3	3	100	2	11.4	65	82	1.9
ALO	12	1	4.5	16	81	1	5.6	297	82	-1.1
VAN	–	–	–	1	0	7	11.2	25	76	–
GAS	–	–	–	–	–	4	12.8	9	89	–
ERI	11	11	14.2	4	100	8	14.4	80	75	-0.2
HAR	–	–	–	–	–	10	15.0	8	75	–

OVERTAKES

The chart below shows the Circuit de Barcelona-Catalunya has tracked the overall season average for overtakes pretty closely over the last five years – except for last year that is! 2017 was a poor year for overtakes (for reasons  we discussed here), but Spain had a particularly poor showing at roughly half the season average.

Let’s hope some more overtaking returns to Spain in 2018!

PITSTOPS

Two stops was the dominant strategy last year with 11 drivers completing two stops, three drivers completing one stop and four drivers completing three stops.

Of the three cars completing one stop only Wehrlein managed to finish the race. As we’ve already mentioned Wehrlein started 15th and finished 8th after Sauber’s strategists played the contra card brilliantly.

RETIREMENTS

80 percent of drivers finished the race last year. Bottas, Verstappen, Raikkonen and Vandoorne weren’t among them.

Embed from Getty Images

TRACK SPEED AND CORNERS

The average speed of the winning driver over the 307 kilometer race distance was 192.1 km/h in 2017. This puts Spain in the bottom third for average speed last year.

WHAT TO LOOK OUT FOR

With only four points separating Lewis and Seb it’s another key race for the main Championship rivals. After a terrible race for both Red Bull drivers and some serious bad luck for Valteri Bottas in Baku all three will be looking to make amends in Spain. Based on the RBR driver’s solid quali bias at Barcelona both will need to capitalise if they have any chance of challenging for the Title.

The mid-field battle is intense.  With significant upgrades expected for most teams in Spain who will have made the best of their improvements? With one point separating McLaren and Renault for 4th in the Championship and Force India strong in Azerbaijan it will be fascinating to see which team comes out on top in Spain.

Saturday will be critical. Who will secure the vitally important top two grid positions in qualifying?

The 2018 F1 season keeps getting better! Somehow the fantastic race we saw in Bahrain was trumped at the last outing in China by an absolutely cracking race!  We now move on to Baku, the capital of Azerbaijan for the 4th race of the season.

This will be the third race at the Baku street circuit though only the second Azerbaijan GP as the 2016 race was scheduled as the European GP. The 2017 race was a thriller (as you can see from our RaceMap below!).  And last year’s winner…the smiling assassin Daniel Ricciardo.  Can the Aussie deliver back to back wins or can Lewis Hamilton and Mercedes regain the upper hand?

Buckle up, its race week again and below is all you need to know ahead of the Azerbaijan Grand Prix.

WHAT HAPENNED HERE LAST YEAR?

The 2017 Baku RaceMap tells the story of an amazing drivers’ podium.  After crashing in qualifying and starting the race in 10th position Ricciardo pitted on lap 6 dropping to 17th place.  After the race was red flagged the Australian fought back to take the win. In so doing he set the record for the lowest starting grid slot of a winner in the hybrid era.

Valteri Bottas had an equally exciting race having collided with Raikkonen on lap one and pitting with a puncture putting him a full lap down on the leaders. He went on to finish 2nd after passing Lance Stroll on the last lap.

The rookie Lance Stroll had an impressive race after first out-qualifying his experienced team mate Massa and going on to finish  3rd on the podium. With Stroll and Ricciardo both “enjoying” a shoey on the podium if was a fitting end to an amazing race.

The race also upped the ante in the battle for the title. Seb Vettel intentionally drove into Lewis Hamilton behind the safety car after the German thought the Brit had “brake-tested” him.  Expect another close challenge between the title favorites in 2018!

Embed from Getty Images

PODIUMS

The graphic below shows the podium places achieved in Azerbaijan from the current F1 drivers. Of the six podium places achieved in total from the two races  held so far there is only one name missing from the list below – Nico Rosberg won the race in 2016 before going on to win the Championship that year.

	1st
2nd	Ricciardo (1x)
Vettel (1x)		3rd
Bottas (1x)		Stroll (1x)
		Pérez (1x)

LAP RECORDS

The top two current title contenders Lewis Hamilton and Sebastian Vettel hold the records in Baku for qualifying and race lap’s respectively.

	Qualifying	Race	Difference
2017	1:40.593 (HAM)	1:43.441 (VET)	-0:02.848
Record	1:40.593 (2017 HAM)	1:43.441 (2017 VET)	-0:02.848

In 2016 Nico Rosberg did a 1:42:520 in qualifying with his fastest lap coming in Q2 – he went on to take pole in Q3. The speed of the current spec cars is clear with Hamilton’s 2017 pole lap nearly two seconds faster than the year before. With dry conditions expect a further increase in lap times this year.

QUALIFYING

The standout result from two years of qualifying in Azerbaijan is Sergio Perez who qualified 2nd in 2016 and 6th in 2017. This gives Checo a favourable seven place qualifying track bias.

Lance Stroll has also qualified well here with 8th position in both races giving him a 7.2 place quali bias versus his career average.

Bear in mind that with only two races having been held at Baku the sample size is small. The stats should therefore be treated with some caution.

	Baku City Circuit				Career
Driver	2017	Best	Ave	Starts	Best	Ave	Starts	Bias
HAM	1	1	5.5	2	1	3.8	211	1.7
VET	4	4	4	2	1	4.8	201	-0.8
BOT	2	2	5	2	1	7.6	101	-2.6
RAI	3	3	4	2	1	6.2	245	-2.2
RIC	10	3	6.5	2	1	9.2	131	-2.7
VER	5	5	7	2	2	7.5	63	-0.5
PER	6	2	4	2	2	11.0	138	-7
OCO	7	7	7	1	5	12.9	31	-5.9
SAI	12	12	12.5	2	5	11.4	62	1.1
HUL	14	12	13	2	1	10.0	139	3
STR	8	8	8	1	4	15.2	23	-7.2
GRO	17	11	14	2	2	11.6	127	2.4
MAG	13	13	17	2	4	13.4	63	3.6
ALO	16	14	15	2	1	7.5	279	7.5
VAN	19	19	19	1	7	13.4	24	5.6
GAS	–	–	–	–	6	15.6	7	–
ERI	18	18	19	2	10	17.9	78	1.1
HAR	–	–	–	–	11	15.4	7	–

Embed from Getty Images

HOW IMPORTANT IS QUALIFYING?

Perhaps not too much to draw from the chart below given limited data although it does highlight Ricciardo’s stunning win last year versus historical averages from all circuits.

RACE RESULT

There is opportunity for result upsets at this track as 3rd place podiums for Stroll and Perez highlight.  Will we see similar dynamics play out this year following on from the dramatic events of the previous race in China? Team strategy will no doubt play an important role once again.

As with qualifying, Stroll and Perez take the top spots with regard to track bias. Given Williams’ struggles so far this season they will be hoping the young Canadian can conjure up more opportunities this year at this unique street circuit.

	Baku City Circuit					Career				Track
Driver	2017	Best	Ave	Sts	%Fin	Best	Ave	Sts	%Fin	Bias
HAM	5	5	5	2	100	1	3.6	211	89	1.4
VET	4	2	3	2	100	1	3.9	202	86	-0.9
BOT	2	2	4	2	100	1	7.3	101	92	-3.3
RAI	14	4	9	2	100	1	5.0	276	79	4
RIC	1	1	4	2	100	1	8.2	132	86	-4.2
VER	–	8	8	2	50	1	6.3	63	76	1.7
PER	–	3	3	2	50	2	9.2	139	88	-6.2
OCO	6	6	6	1	100	5	10.9	32	97	-4.9
SAI	8	8	8	2	50	4	9.7	63	70	-1.7
HUL	–	9	9	2	50	4	9.5	140	81	-0.5
STR	3	3	3	1	100	3	11.7	23	83	-8.7
GRO	13	13	13	2	100	2	10.4	127	74	2.6
MAG	7	7	10.5	2	100	2	11.4	64	81	-0.9
ALO	9	9	9	2	50	1	5.6	296	82	3.4
VAN	12	12	12	1	100	7	11.3	24	75	0.7
GAS	–	–	–	–	–	4	12.9	8	88	–
ERI	11	11	14	2	100	8	14.5	79	75	-0.5
HAR	–	–	–	–	–	13	15.2	7	71	–

OVERTAKES

There may have only been two races so far at the Baku street circuit but they’ve been eventful ones. The overtakes chart certainly bears this out with significantly higher levels of overtaking than the average for all tracks.

There were over 50% more overtakes in Baku than the season average in 2016 (which was itself a good year for overtakes) and more than double the season average in 2017.

Coming off the back of two outstanding races in Bahrain and China and with the battle heating up for both the Championship itself and for midfield bragging rights we can expect some more on-track fireworks this year in Azerbaijan.

PITSTOPS

Last year’s race in Azerbaijan was far from conventional.  Seven cars completed three pitstops, eight cars completed four stops and two cars completed five stops. It therefore offers little in the way of a template for this year’s baseline pitstop strategy.

With three safety car deployments and a period of over 20 minutes under red flags there was no shortage of challenges for the strategists last year. Given last year’s race in Baku in addition to the dramatic safety-car-affected race in China last time out the team strategists will definitely be sharpening their pencils ahead of this week’s race. Can Red Bull’s strategy sleuths back up their fine performance in China and help steer Ricciardo to a second victory in Azerbaijan?

RETIREMENTS

70% of drivers finished last years race making it equal third for the highest number of retirements of the season. There may actually have been more retirements had the red flags not given pit crews a chance to work on damaged cars and get them back out on track.

As Daniel Ricciardo recently highlighted one of the hardest things about this circuit is braking.  There are several hard braking and extremely unforgiving corners which offer plenty of opportunities for driver error.

TRACK SPEED AND CORNERS

Azerbaijan was the second slowest circuit on the calendar last year with an average speed for the winning driver of 148.2 km/h. This stat is a little misleading though given the highly disrupted race. In fact in 2016 qualifying Valtteri Bottas reached the highest ever recorded speed in an official Formula One session, at 378 km/h.

There are 20 corners on the circuit putting it equal third highest for total corners.

With both high top speeds and and many corners there are opportunities at both ends of spectrum for the teams to evaluate different aero balances.

WHAT TO LOOK OUT FOR

Embed from Getty Images

With arguably the best chassis on the grid and with Renault providing more power the mix of tight corners and long straight may provide a good opportunity for the Red Bulls.  With a storming race in China and having won last years race in Baku Dan Ricciardo will be full of confidence.  Can Max Verstappen have a clean race and make better use of his and his car’s speed?

Kevin Magnussen and Romain Grosjean have traditionally been nearly impossible to split…until now.  After the first three races of the season KMag has taken a handy 5:1 lead over RoGro in their head to head battle.  Can the Frenchman turn the tables in Baku and close up on his teammate?

With only nine points separating Vettel and Hamilton at the top of the Championship it’s a vital race for both.  Can Lewis win his first race of the season and tighten up the title fight further?

Who will win the 2018 Azerbaijan GP?