Is Monaco really the worst track for overtaking? Find out this and more in our Monaco form guide

The 2018 Championship moves on to the sixth race of the season and what is arguably the most iconic of them all – the Monaco Grand Prix.

The Circuit de Monaco has hosted Grand Prix events since 1929 is still widely considered the jewel in F1’s crown.

Together with the Indianapolis 500 and the 24 hours of Le Mans the Monaco Grand Prix forms part of the Triple Crown of Motorsport – a crown Fernando Alonso has his eye on wearing (Fernando will try to add a Le Mans win to his achievements later in 2018). To date Graham Hill is the only driver to have achieved the Triple Crown.

It is perhaps not surprising that the record for the most wins in the Principaility is held by Ayrton Senna  – his quali performances are the stuff of legend as he showed in 1988 when he beat his team mate Alain Prost by 1.5 seconds to pole.

BUT IS IT REALLY IMPOSSIBLE TO OVERTAKE AT MONACO?

The accusation always levelled at Monaco is that the races are processional, and overtaking is impossible around the narrow track. But is that really true?

We took a look back at each Grand Prix going back to 1996 to see what the stats could tell us.

Overtakes over the last 20 years clearly show that the tight circuit generally does provide significantly less total overtakes compared to the average of all circuits – but not in all years.

The anomaly in that graph is clearly the race in 2008 – which shows that a relatively high number of overtakes are possible in Monaco.

The key influence in 2008 was that the race started in wet conditions but dried during the race which resulted in different strategies and some big performance differences between the cars at various stages of the race. And the winner in 2008? Lewis Hamilton.

When it comes to the race for podium positions overtaking is extremely rare. In the past 12 years there have only been four overtakes for position in the top three. Of these four only one was a legitimate overtake:

  • 2016 Hamilton over Rosberg for 2nd – team order
  • 2014 Raikkonen over Vettel for 3rd – gearbox issue for Seb
  • 2008 Hamilton over Raikkonen for 3rd – pitlane penalty
  • 2006 Raikkonen over Webber for 2nd – A LEGITMATE overtake as Webber ran wide

HOW DOES MONACO COMPARE TO OTHER TRACKS WHEN IT COMES TO OVERTAKING?

So we know passing other cars is tricky at Monaco, but how does the track compare to other circuits on the F1 calendar for overtaking?

Direct statistical comparisons can be difficult due to certain tracks only having a handful of races (like India and Korea, for example), so this graph shows the average number of overtakes at each track over the past 20 years, and only includes circuits that have hosted 10 or more races in that period.

And it’s no real surprise to see Monaco is bottom of the rankings. The principality circuit has an average of 12 overtakes per race, compared to 32 for Spa, 34 for Interlagos and a whopping 52 for Shanghai.

So overtaking in Monte Carlo is not impossible, but it is very, very tough, which makes a genuine overtake all the more impressive when it does happen. Here’s hoping some of the drivers can pull off a few this weekend.

SO DOES THAT MEAN YOU NEED TO BE ON POLE TO WIN?

Well, not necessarily – over the past three years the winner of the Monaco GP hasn’t started from pole.

And since 1950 the grid position of winners at Monaco aren’t hugely different to other circuits.

More telling are the stats over the last 20 years:

Over the past two decades no driver has won the Monaco GP starting outside the top three on the grid.

Before the recent run of three years of non-pole winners, the previous six races were won from pole with both Nico Rosberg and Mark Webber achieving the feat twice.

WHAT HAPPENED IN LAST YEARS RACE?

  • In 2017 Kimi Raikkonen started on pole – his first since the 2008 French GP
  • Sebastian Vettel won from 2nd on the grid after “”over-cutting” his pole sitting team mate
  • 2017 was the first win for Ferrari at Monaco since 2001 and their first 1-2 since the 2010 German GP
  • After starting 5th on the grid Dan Ricciardo followed Seb’s lead staying out longer on the ultra-softs and over-cutting Verstappen and Bottas
  • As you can see from the race map Lewis Hamilton had an impressive race finishing 7th after starting 13th on the grid
  • There were five retirements last year including the Saubers of Werhlein and Ericsson, the Renault of Hulkenberg, and the McLarens of Vandoorne and Button.
  • Button had returned to Formula 1 to keep Alonso’s seat warm while he was off competing (and also retiring) in the Indy 500. An inauspicious end to a wonderful career in F1 for Button. Rubbing salt into the wounds he scored two penalty points on his super license for causing a collision with Wehrlein.

WINNERS AND PODIUM RECORDS

As mentioned above the record for the most wins at Monaco goes to Ayrton Senna with six. Both Graham Hill and Michael Schumacher won five Monaco GP’s.

Of the current drivers to have reached the podium only Checo Perez and Dan Ricciardo haven’t stood on the top step.  Having made the podium three times out of his four starts with Red Bull Ricciardo will be very keen to join his Aussie predecessor Mark Webber as a Monaco GP winner (Webber won for RBR in 2010 and 2012).

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1st
2nd
Hamilton (2x)
Vettel (3x)
Alonso (2x)
3rd
Räikkönen (2x) Vettel (2x) Ricciardo (2x)
Hamilton (2x) Räikkönen (1x) Hamilton (1x)
Alonso (1x) Alonso (1x)
Ricciardo (1x) Räikkönen (1x)
Pérez (1x)

LAP RECORDS

Surprise surprise the quali lap record was set in 2017 and the all time race record was again set by Michael Schumacher in his Ferrari in 2004. This pattern has been the same in every race to date this year that was also on the calender in 2004 – except Spain where Schumey set the record in 2006.

Following his amazing pole lap in 1988 (1.23.998) Ayrton Senna also set the fastest lap in the race – a 1.26.321 – though he famously crashed out off the race while comfortably leading. Sixteen years on Schumacher’s record was nearly 12 seconds quicker than the legendary Brazilians! Another 14 years later and Checo Perez’s fastest lap in 2017 was just under 4 tenths slower than Schumacher. In the German’s hands that 2004 Ferrari was a magnificent race car!

Qualifying Race Difference
2017 1:12.178 (RAI) 1:14.820 (PER) -0:02.642
Record 1:12.178 (2017 RAI) 1:14.439 (2004 MSC) -0:02.261

WHO IS BEST AT QUALIFYING IN MONACO?

Of the Ferrari, Mercedes and Red Bull drivers only Raikkonen and Ricciardo  have a favourable quali track bias at Monaco – those two were also the 2017 and 2016 pole position holders respectively – though neither won the race.

A the time of writing Kimi was trading at 16:1 for the win at BetFair. For any punters out there that might just be an attractive wager!

Last time out in Spain Nico Hulkenberg failed to reach Q2 for the first time since the 2015 Spanish GP.  Chili Sainz out-qualified Hulkenberg for the first time in their 2018 head to head so the Hulk will be looking to make amends in Monaco. Sainz has on average qualified 4 places better at Monaco than in his career as a whole so the challenge may not be easy for the German. 

Circuit de Monaco Career
Driver 2017 Best Ave Starts Best Ave Starts Bias
HAM 14 1 5.4 11 1 3.8 212 1.6
VET 2 1 5.2 10 1 4.8 202 0.4
BOT 3 3 11.6 5 1 7.6 102 4
RAI 1 1 4.9 13 1 6.2 246 -1.3
RIC 5 1 6.8 6 1 9.2 132 -2.4
VER 4 4 11.7 3 2 7.4 64 4.3
PER 7 7 8.2 6 2 11.0 139 -2.8
OCO 16 16 16 1 5 12.8 32 3.2
SAI 6 6 7 3 5 11.4 63 -4.4
HUL 12 5 10.6 7 1 10.0 140 0.6
STR 18 18 18 1 4 15.0 24 3
GRO 8 5 11 6 2 11.7 128 -0.7
MAG 13 8 12.3 3 4 13.4 64 -1.1
ALO 1 7.3 14 1 7.5 280 -0.2
VAN 10 10 10 1 7 13.5 25 -3.5
GAS 6 15.8 8
ERI 20 17 19.2 4 10 17.9 79 1.3
HAR 11 15.9 8

RACE RESULTS: DAN RICCIARDO IS A MONACO SPECIALIST

Following on from his favourable quali bias Dan Ricciardo has an impressive 5 place race result bias.  That means that on average the Aussie has finished 5 places higher at Monaco than all other tracks combined during his F1 career.

Of the top two in the Championship Vettel’s average race result and track bias at Monaco are significantly better than Hamilton’s. With Lewis now leading the Championship and with the two having very similar career race result stats that advantage could be key for Seb finishing ahead of Lewis in Monaco.

Bear in mind though that Hamilton is the only driver in the top three teams who has managed to finish every Monaco GP he has started. To finish first you first have to finish!

Circuit de Monaco Career Track
Driver 2017 Best Ave Sts %Fin Best Ave Sts %Fin Bias
HAM 7 1 4.4 11 100 1 3.6 212 89 0.8
VET 1 1 2.6 10 80 1 3.9 203 86 -1.3
BOT 4 4 10.5 5 80 1 7.3 102 91 3.2
RAI 2 1 6.5 15 73 1 5.0 277 79 1.5
RIC 3 2 3.2 6 67 1 8.2 133 85 -5
VER 5 5 5 3 33 1 6.3 64 75 -1.3
PER 13 3 10 7 71 2 9.2 140 88 0.8
OCO 12 12 12 1 100 5 10.9 33 94 1.1
SAI 6 6 8 3 100 4 9.6 64 70 -1.6
HUL 5 8.2 7 71 4 9.5 141 81 -1.3
STR 15 15 15 1 100 3 11.4 24 83 3.6
GRO 8 8 10.2 6 67 2 10.4 128 73 -0.2
MAG 10 10 10 3 67 2 11.4 65 82 -1.4
ALO 1 4.6 15 80 1 5.6 297 82 -1
VAN 1 0 7 11.2 25 76
GAS 4 12.8 9 89
ERI 11 12 4 50 8 14.4 80 75 -2.4
HAR 10 15.0 8 75

PITSTOPS

The optimal pitstop strategy last year was a one-stopper. Overall 12 cars completed a single stop, five cars completed two stops and two (unfortunate) cars completed three stops.

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For cars following a conventional one stop strategy the earliest pitstop was on lap 33 and the latest on lap 46 (out of a total of 78 laps).  The median for this group was lap 38. Strangely no two drivers in this group pitted on the same lap.

TRACK SPEED AND CORNERS

There’s plenty of corners in Monaco with a total of 19 turns compared to an average of 16.75 turns for all tracks. They’re pretty unforgiving corners too – a small error can spell disaster for a driver’s race weekend.

Monaco is the shortest race distance on the F1 calendar at 260.3 km and last year recorded the third slowest average speed for the winning driver at 149.1 km/h.

With relatively slow speeds and many corners Monaco favours cars with efficient aero packages. So while the Renault power unit still suffers from a power deficit relative to Mercedes and Ferrari Monaco tends to level the playing field.  With perhaps the greatest aerodynamicist in the history of the sport in Adrian Newey, Red Bull have generally done well in Monaco.

THINGS TO LOOK OUT FOR THIS WEEKEND

Charles Leclerc is the first Monegasque to compete in their home race since Olivier Beretta for Larousse in 1994. The only local ever to have reached the podium was Louis Chiron who finished 3rd in a Maserati in 1950 – he was 50 years old at the time and it was the first ever season of the F1 Championship! There would need to be an amazing turn of events for Charles to make the podium this year but his performances to date suggest he may well have an opportunity in the future.

Can Daniel Ricciardo make the most of his impressive qualifying and race bias at Monaco. With Red Bull seemingly on the pace of both Ferrari and Mercedes at tracks not power dependant this should be a great opportunity for both Dan and Max to challenge for pole.

With Lewis Hamilton now 17 points clear of Seb Vettel in the Championship and 37 ahead off his team mate in 3rd the title challenges will need to claw some points back in Monaco to keep their Championship hopes alive.

Get ready for race weekend – at the magnificent Monaco GP!

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Spanish GP Form Guide: Everything you need to know ahead of the 2018 race

We didn’t think the racing could get much better after China – but then came Baku! The last three Grand Prix have seen some spectacular racing.

F1 now moves on to the Circuit de Barcelona-Catalunya for the Spanish GP and the fifth race of the season.  With racing dating back to 1913, well before the first Formula One World Championship in 1950, the Spanish GP is one of the oldest on the calendar. The current circuit was first used in 1991 and has been home to the Spanish GP in every each year since.

Teams and drivers know the track well with pre-season testing taking place at the circuit although with generally much cooler temperatures than expected for the race weekend.

Will the Spanish GP match the excitement of Azerbaijan? Buckle up – here’s everything you need to know ahead of the race weekend.

WHAT HAPENNED HERE LAST YEAR?

  • In 2017 Hamilton started on pole and won the race
  • Vettel was second on the grid and finished second though he had a great race with Lewis after taking the lead on the first corner
  • Raikonnen, Verstappen and Bottas collided on lap one with the first two retiring. Valteri then retired on lap 38 with an engine failure while running in 3rd position
  • Ricciardo managed to steal 3rd place after starting 6th on the grid
  • Kvyat had a superb race starting 19th on the grid and finishing in the points in 9th
  • Wehlein started 15 and and finished 8th scoring the first of Sauber’s two points finishes for the season
  • Unfortunately for Daniil and Pascal their great drives weren’t enough for them to retain their seats in 2018

F1 HAS A LONG HISTORY IN SPAIN

  • This year will see the 48th running of the Spanish Grand Prix under the “modern” F1 World Championship
  • The first event was held in 1951 (the second ever F1 season) at the Circuit de Pedrables
  • The event has been held at 5 different circuits in the intervening years
  • The event has been held continuously since 1986 with 5 races at the Circuito de Jerez followed by 28 races at the the Circuit de Barcelona-Catalunya

PODIUMS

Two drivers have won more grand prix at the Circuit de Barcelona-Catalunya than any of the current drivers: Michael Schumacher with six victories and Mika Hakkinen with three.

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The graphic below shows the podiums achieved in Spain by the current driver lineup.

1st
2nd
Räikkönen (2x)
Alonso (4x)
Hamilton (2x)
3rd
Hamilton (3x) Alonso (2x) Vettel (3x)
Räikkönen (2x) Vettel (1x) Ricciardo (2x)
Vettel (1x) Verstappen (1x) Alonso (1x)
Räikkönen (1x)
Hamilton (1x)

LAP RECORDS

Michael Schumacher set the overall record at this circuit in his 2006 qualifying session but this time is not really the benchmark any more.  A chicane was added in 2007 in an attempt to promote overtaking opportunities (more on this below). So Hamilton’s quali time last year set the record for the fastest time on the current layout.

Kimi Raikonnen’s race lap record on the current track layout remains from 10 years ago. The Ice Man’s time was nearly two seconds quicker that Hamilton’s fasted lap last year. As we’ve noted in our other 2018 pre-race track reviews the current F1 rules are significantly limiting lap times on race day compared qualifying pace.

Qualifying Race Difference
2017 1:19.149 (HAM) 1:23.593 (HAM) -0:04.444
Circuit Record 1:14.637 (2006 MSC) 1:15.641 (2005 FIS) -0:01.004
Layout Record 1:19.149 (2017 HAM) 1:21.670 (2008 RAI) -0:02.521

QUALIFYING

The stats show some interesting qualifying trends among the top teams in Spain. Both the Ferrari drivers have unfavourable quali biases with Kimi averaging a full place lower on the grid in Spain compared to his average for all circuits. Seb’s relative form has been almost as bad with an unfavourable 0.8 place bias.  In contrast the Mercedes drivers each have around half a place favourable track bias and the Red Bull drivers have excellent track biases of 1 and 2.4 places for Ricciardo and Verstappen respectively.

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With the Ferraris, Mercedes, and Red Bull’s one lap pace very close will Max and Dan’s great track bias give them the edge in qualifying in 2018?

The top quali bias in Spain goes to Chilli Sainz with a favourable bias of 3.1 places from his three races here to date. This is in stark contrast to his Renault teammate with Hulk Hulkenberg having an unfavourable 3.4 place bias. Can Chilli turn this 6.5 place spread to his advantage and gain some ground in the Renault head to head battle?

Circuit de Barcelona-Catalunya Career
Driver 2017 Best Ave Starts Best Ave Starts Bias
HAM 1 1 3.4 11 1 3.8 212 -0.4
VET 2 2 5.6 10 1 4.8 202 0.8
BOT 3 3 7 5 1 7.6 102 -0.6
RAI 4 1 7.2 13 1 6.2 246 1
RIC 6 3 8.2 6 1 9.2 132 -1
VER 5 4 5 3 2 7.4 64 -2.4
PER 8 6 10.6 7 2 11.0 139 -0.4
OCO 10 10 10 1 5 12.8 32 -2.8
SAI 12 5 8.3 3 5 11.4 63 -3.1
HUL 13 11 13.4 7 1 10.0 140 3.4
STR 18 18 18 1 4 15.0 24 3
GRO 14 4 9.2 6 2 11.7 128 -2.5
MAG 11 11 13.7 3 4 13.4 64 0.3
ALO 7 1 5.3 15 1 7.5 280 -2.2
VAN 19 19 19 1 7 13.5 25 5.5
GAS 6 15.8 8
ERI 16 16 17.8 4 10 17.9 79 -0.1
HAR 11 15.9 8

HOW IMPORTANT IS QUALIFYING?

Pole position has been crucially important at this circuit. Historically over 74% of race winners started on pole. Only 11.1% of races have been won from outside the front row of the grid. If the poor qualifying bias of the two Ferrari drivers is indicative of their performance this year it may be a tough circuit for the Scuderia. But read on… there’s a twist when we consider the stats from the race results.

RACE RESULT

Recall that both Ferrari drivers had poor qualifying track biases in Spain while the Mercedes drivers have performed well in quali here relative to their career averages. Well, for race results these biases are flipped 180 degrees. Both Merc drivers have unfavourable track biases (a full 1.8 places for Lewis) while the Ferrari drivers have each tended to finish about half a place better in Spain than their career average.

In our opinion the quali bias is the more important factor in Spain given how critical it is to land on the front row. But the switch for the race bias for the Ferrari drivers is very interesting and bodes well if they can make the most of their opportunities in quali!

Force India had a terrific result here last year with 4th and 5th.  While Ocon has only had one outing in Spain his fifth place gives him the prize for top track bias as this result was 5.9 places ahead of his career average finishing position.

Circuit de Barcelona-Catalunya Career Track
Driver 2017 Best Ave Sts %Fin Best Ave Sts %Fin Bias
HAM 1 1 5.4 11 91 1 3.6 212 89 1.8
VET 2 1 3.3 10 90 1 3.9 203 86 -0.6
BOT 4 7.5 5 80 1 7.3 102 91 0.2
RAI 1 4.5 15 67 1 5.0 277 79 -0.5
RIC 3 3 6.7 6 100 1 8.2 133 85 -1.5
VER 1 6 3 67 1 6.3 64 75 -0.3
PER 4 4 8.5 7 86 2 9.2 140 88 -0.7
OCO 5 5 5 1 100 5 10.9 33 94 -5.9
SAI 7 6 7.3 3 100 4 9.6 64 70 -2.3
HUL 6 6 12 7 86 4 9.5 141 81 2.5
STR 16 16 16 1 100 3 11.4 24 83 4.6
GRO 10 4 10.4 6 83 2 10.4 128 73 0
MAG 14 12 13.3 3 100 2 11.4 65 82 1.9
ALO 12 1 4.5 16 81 1 5.6 297 82 -1.1
VAN 1 0 7 11.2 25 76
GAS 4 12.8 9 89
ERI 11 11 14.2 4 100 8 14.4 80 75 -0.2
HAR 10 15.0 8 75

OVERTAKES

The chart below shows the Circuit de Barcelona-Catalunya has tracked the overall season average for overtakes pretty closely over the last five years – except for last year that is! 2017 was a poor year for overtakes (for reasons  we discussed here), but Spain had a particularly poor showing at roughly half the season average.

Let’s hope some more overtaking returns to Spain in 2018!

PITSTOPS

Two stops was the dominant strategy last year with 11 drivers completing two stops, three drivers completing one stop and four drivers completing three stops.

Of the three cars completing one stop only Wehrlein managed to finish the race. As we’ve already mentioned Wehrlein started 15th and finished 8th after Sauber’s strategists played the contra card brilliantly.

RETIREMENTS

80 percent of drivers finished the race last year. Bottas, Verstappen, Raikkonen and Vandoorne weren’t among them.

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TRACK SPEED AND CORNERS

The average speed of the winning driver over the 307 kilometer race distance was 192.1 km/h in 2017. This puts Spain in the bottom third for average speed last year.

WHAT TO LOOK OUT FOR

With only four points separating Lewis and Seb it’s another key race for the main Championship rivals. After a terrible race for both Red Bull drivers and some serious bad luck for Valteri Bottas in Baku all three will be looking to make amends in Spain. Based on the RBR driver’s solid quali bias at Barcelona both will need to capitalise if they have any chance of challenging for the Title.

The mid-field battle is intense.  With significant upgrades expected for most teams in Spain who will have made the best of their improvements? With one point separating McLaren and Renault for 4th in the Championship and Force India strong in Azerbaijan it will be fascinating to see which team comes out on top in Spain.

Saturday will be critical. Who will secure the vitally important top two grid positions in qualifying?

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