Reloaded: Who is the Best Value Driver on the F1 Grid?

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At the half way point of the 2017 season we looked at each driver’s relative return on investment for their respective teams – their bang for buck. To calculate this we divided each driver’s accumulated World Drivers Championship points by their salary earned at the half way stage of the season.

The analysis produced a rough and ready relative value for each driver with some interesting results. The ranking ultimately showed that the extremely high annual salaries paid to the sport’s top drivers do not necessarily align with the value they generate in terms of WDC points.

Of course a driver’s ability to accumulate WDC points, regardless of skill, is highly dependent on the car they find themselves in as well as many other factors. Ultimately though scoring points is what drivers are employed to do.

Based on our analysis the best value driver at the half way point of the 2017 season was Esteban Ocon. The highly rated full season rookie cost Force India just $2,261 per Championship point. All the mid-season results can be seen here.

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Now the 2017 Formula One season has been run and won we were interested to see how each driver’s relative value to their teams panned out over the full season.

Did Ocon finish the season on top? In a word…yes!

Rank Driver Team Salary WDC Points $ / Point
* Salary figures for Bottas and Alonso include bonus payments
1 Esteban Ocon Force India $185,000 87 $2,126
2 Carlos Sainz Torro Rosso $750,000 54 $13,889
3 Max Verstappen Red Bull $3,000,000 168 $17,857
4 Stoffel Vandoorne McLaren $300,000 13 $23,077
5 Sergio Perez Force India $2,500,000 100 $25,000
6 Valtteri Bottas* Mercedes $8,500,000 305 $27,869
7 Pascal Wehrlein Sauber $150,000 5 $30,000
8 Daniel Ricciardo Red Bull $6,500,000 200 $32,500
9 Kimi Raikkonen Ferrari $7,000,000 205 $34,146
10 Kevin Magnussen Haas $1,000,000 19 $52,632
11 Romain Grosjean Haas $1,500,000 28 $53,571
12 Nico Hulkenberg Renault $3,000,000 43 $69,767
13 Felipe Massa Williams $3,500,000 43 $81,395
14 Lewis Hamilton Mercedes $31,000,000 363 $85,399
15 Sebastian Vettel Ferrari $30,000,000 317 $94,637
16 Jolyon Palmer Renault $1,000,000 8 $125,000
17 Daniil Kvyat Torro Rosso $750,000 5 $150,000
18 Fernando Alonso* McLaren $40,000,000 17 $2,352,941
19 Marcus Ericsson Sauber $285,000 0
N/A Lance Stroll Williams Not Available 40 Not Available

Esteban Ocon maintained his lead as the best value driver on the grid right through to the seasons’s conclusion.  Ocon beat the second ranked Chili Sainz by over $10,000 per point! The incredibly consistent first full season by the Frenchman is reflected in the fact that his $/point score changed by only $135/point between the mid-season break and the season finale in Abu Dhabi.

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Sainz also maintained his 2nd place but Max Verstappen moved from 5th at the half way mark to finish the season in 3rd. At the other end of the rankings Hamilton, Vettel and Alonso didn’t perform well in our value scores. With 11 World Championships between them these three superstars clearly bring more value to their respective teams than just their performances on track. In one of the biggest sports in the world branding and marketing power are highly valued.

Fernando may have cost McLaren more than $2.3M per WDC point but he is arguably still one of the best on the grid as the stats clearly show. Few would argue that the Spaniard extracted everything he could out of the underpowered McLaren Honda. McLaren will literally be banking on the fact that the new Renault power unit will enable Alonso to use his prodigious talent to accrue many more points in 2018.

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It should be noted that Carlos Sainz drove for Renault in the final four races of the season and we have assumed he remained on his previous salary at Torro Rosso. Similarly for Brendon Hartley and Pierre Gasly race payments are unknown but at the end of the season neither had accumulated a WDC point.

We have also assumed that Jolyon Palmer and Danill Kyviat were both paid the remainder of their salaries for the year though depending on their contracts they may have also received some form of “golden handshake” to compensate for their forced redundancies.

HOW DO TEAMMATES COMPARE?

As we saw in our end of season head to head analysis 2017 had some closely fought teammate battles as well as some more one sided affairs. Unsurprisingly there were some similar results in the $/point comparisons.

Interestingly for teammates who spent the entire season together no driver who finished ahead of their teammate in the points also represented better value for money. Hamilton, Vettel, Ricciardo, Grosjean, Alonso and Perez all finished with more championship points than their teammates but were also more expensive in the $/point rankings.

Some team’s drivers were closer than others in both their head to head results on track and in $/point value. The one clear standout with very little separating the drivers in performance and value was HAAS. Romain Grosjean and Kevin Magnussen were the only pairing to draw the season in our 6 head to head factors and were also the only team mates to be extremely close in their $/point values – less than $1,000/point difference or less than two percent!

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It will be fascinating to see if either RoGro or KMag can break the shackles and dominate their team mate in 2018. Not only were these two drivers closely matched they were also collectively expensive. Only one other team (Renault) spent more than $50,000 per championship point on both drivers in 2017. Gene Haas will be hoping his cars move up the standings in 2018 – if not it may make more business sense to team one of his experienced drivers with a promising rookie on a much reduced salary.

“PAY DRIVERS” – AND HOW MUCH TO PAY DRIVERS

With constant news about “pay drivers” it would be naive to think a driver’s relative value to a team was only in the cost of their salaries compared to their on track performance. Most drivers in the paddock bring some form of sponsorship to their teams so in many instances the salary cost of a driver would be covered many times over by the funds that driver brings to the team coffers.

Even so the cream generally rises to the top – as young drivers prove themselves on track demand for their services generally increases and seats in top teams potentially open up. But there are exceptions.

At the half way point of the season Pascal Werlein was sitting third in our $/point ranking. Unfortunately for the young German that performance wasn’t enough for him to keep his seat in 2018.  He was dumped by Sauber in favour of the promising Monegasque (and Ferrari protege) Charles Leclerc. Werlein had comprehensively beaten his teammate on track but this wasn’t enough for Sauber to retain him. They chose instead to keep Marcus Ericsson and the sponsorship money he brings to the team.

Every team would clearly like to have the best drivers possible in their cars. With no disrespect to Ericsson, Wehrlein’s plight is a good example of just how difficult it is for teams to manage the overall expense of the sport and the compromises that need to be made.

HOW DO MOTOGP SUPERSTARS COMPARE?

We enjoyed comparing MotoGP bike performance with current F1 cars in our recent piece on speed in F1. As a further comparison we thought it might be interesting to compare the riders relative salaries and $/points as well.

It should be noted that although there are still 25 points for a win in MotoGP the remaining points allocation is slightly different with points being awarded down to 15th place as opposed to only the top 10 in F1.

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Both Valentino Rossi and 2017 Champion Marc Marquez were reportedly paid $10M in salaries in 2017. This equates to $48,076 and $33,557 per point for Rossi and Marquez respectively. As is the case in F1 the highest paid superstars are generally not the best value for money in terms of $/point.

At the other end of the spectrum Jack Miller was paid a reported $350,000 implying a price tag of $4,268 for each of the Aussie’s 82 world championship points – great bang for buck for his EG 0,0 Marc VDS team.

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A COMMON THREAD

There is a common thread between the two sports. Factory/manufacturer teams are willing to pay the top rider and drivers salaries that don’t appear to be good value based on their championship points. Their performance on track is one thing but as we alluded to earlier the branding and marketing value that these global superstars bring to their respective teams must commercially justify the big bucks they’re paid.

There are clearly a lot of factors on the table when driver’s negotiate their annual salary. Even so we think the $/point is a good rough and ready guide to the value for money offered by each F1 driver on the grid.

2017’s bang for buck winner Esteban Ocon had a tremendous 2017. As a result his salary has reportedly increased more than sixteenfold to $3m in 2018 – clearly Force India recognises the value the young Frenchman adds to the team.

Who will top the Bang for Buck tables in 2018? Let us know what you think.

How did 2017 compare to the Best Seasons in F1 History?

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The 2017 Formula 1 season was notable for a number of reasons. The rule changes introduced by the FIA prior to the season commencing were fairly dramatic: wider tyres, wider chassis, larger spoilers, more downforce, more powerful engines…the cars were going to be quick and look great. In fact the cars were around 3 seconds a lap quicker on average as we discussed recently in Why F1’s Pursuit if Speed in 2017 had a Dark Side.

Sure, T-wings and Shark Fins detracted somewhat from otherwise fantastic retro looking cars but thankfully these elements have likely been given the boot for 2018.

Quick, good looking cars – what more could we want? Well, some good wheel to wheel racing and a closely contested championship would be nice! Is that what we got? And just how well did 2017 measure up compared to some of the best seasons the sport has ever seen?

HISTORY’S BEST SEASONS

Early last year F1 Bytes conducted a detailed analysis of every Formula 1 season right back to the very first season in 1950. We measured each season across eight different quality factors, applied a scoring system and then tallied up the results.

If you haven’t yet seen the analysis check out The Best Season in Formula 1 History to see which seasons came out on top. The results may surprise you!

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With the 2017 season now completed it seems only fair that we measure it on exactly the same basis to see how it compares. What follows is a detailed look at the 2017 season through the lens of our eight season quality factors. We then calculate the total factor score and see how well it ranks against history’s top seasons.

See here to recap on our factor choices, definitions and factor results from the Best Season in Formula 1 History analysis. As we mentioned at the time, overtake analysis is a notable omission from our factor model. Expect to see more from F1 Bytes on overtaking in 2018.

FACTOR 1: Highest number of winning drivers in a season

Five drivers won Grand Prix in 2017: Lewis Hamilton, Valterri Bottas, Sebastian Vettel, Daniel Ricciardo and Max Verstappen. All exceptional drivers and well deserved victories. Unfortunately five winners was not quite enough to put 2017 in the points for this factor. 1982 managed a stunning 11 unique winners and points were award to seasons with at least six unique winners.

Original Factor 1 Historical Analysis

2017 Factor 1 Score: 0 points

FACTOR 2: Highest number of drivers to lead the World Drivers Championship during a season

Only two drivers were ever leading the Championship in 2017: Lewis Hamilton and Sebastian Vettel. Once again this puts 2017 out of the points on this factor. 2010 was top of the pops for Championship leaders with six different leaders during the season. Points were awarded down to 3.

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Original Factor 2 Historical Analysis

2017 Factor 2 Score: 0 points

FACTOR 3: Most changes in championship leader during a season

So we know there were two championship leaders in 2017. How many times did the lead actually switch over the course of the season? Only twice – and note that we count the first leader following the first race as a lead change.

Seb Vettel came out of the blocks strongly and held the lead right through to the mid-season break. We analysed the German’s chances of winning the championship at that time here. The stats were in his favour to win the championship but Hamilton managed to steal the lead at the Italian Grand Prix and never looked back.

This puts 2017 in the bottom 25% of seasons for championship lead changes – no points.

Original Factor 3 Historical Analysis

2017 Factor 3 Score: 0 points

FACTOR 4: Highest number of marques to win a race in a season

Mercedes, Red Bull Racing and Ferrari each won races in 2017. This compares to the top score of 7 unique winning marques in 1982 (the year Keke Rosberg won the title). Points were awarded down to 4 so once again, 2017 doesn’t trouble the scorers.

Original Factor 4 Historical Analysis

2017 Factor 4 Score: 0 points

Factor 5: Smallest average delta in top 10 qualifying times

This is the only factor where data limitations constrained the analysis. Only seasons from 1994 onwards were analysed. How did 2017 compare?

The new 2017 regulations certainly made the cars quicker and we saw a number of new qualifying records set. But raw pace does not necessarily translate to good competition. Especially if the better funded teams are able to disproportionately harness the opportunities presented by new regulations.

As it turns out 2017 ranked only 17th out of 24 seasons when looking at the gap in qualifying time between the first and tenth cars. The average gap of 2.33 seconds compares to just 1.1 seconds in 2001. 2017 is way out of the points on this factor.

Original Factor 5 Historical Analysis

2017 Factor 5 Score: 0 points

FACTOR 6: Smallest average delta in race time for the podium places

While the cars may have been spread out in qualifying they were relatively close at the front of the pack. The gap between 1st and 3rd over race distance averaged 22.2 seconds in 2017. Far larger than the 13.5 seconds recorded in 2012 but enough to put 2017 in 10th place overall for this factor. 2017 scores its first factor point!

Original Factor 6 Historical Analysis

2017 Factor 6 Score: 1 point

FACTOR 7: Highest number of drivers to get a podium in a season

Our five winning drivers from Factor 1 are joined by Kimi Raikkonen and Lance Stroll to make up the list of drivers to score at least one podium in 2017. Stroll memorably became the youngest driver to make the podium in their rookie year and the second youngest ever behind Max Verstappen.

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Heart-warming stuff but was it enough? In a word, no. 2017 joins four other seasons on the bottom of the ladder for number of drivers to score a podium in a season. This compares to 1982 where 18 drivers managed to climb the podium steps over the course of the season. 2017 – no points.

Original Factor 7 Historical Analysis

2017 Factor 7 Score: 0 points

FACTOR 8: Highest number of drivers who could have won the Championship in the last race

This is perhaps our favourite factor. To have intense competition right to the final chequered flag of the season makes for great sport. In fact we like it so much we decided to give it double points in our scoring system.

Unfortunately 2017 didn’t deliver on this factor. Lewis Hamilton won the championship in Mexico making both Brazil and Abu Dhabi effectively dead rubbers. Contrast this to 2010 when Vettel, Webber, Alonso and Hamilton each had a shot at the title as they lined up on the grid for the final race of the season in Brazil.

Original Factor 8 Historical Analysis

2017 Factor 8 Score: 0 points

 

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2017 TOTAL FACTOR SCORE: 1 POINT

WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN?

2017 was objectively not a spectacular season by historical standards – but we enjoyed it. Who are we kidding, we loved it! We always enjoy F1 and overall there was a lot to like about the 2017 season.

But there are a range of ongoing issues that continue to challenge minds at the FIA and Liberty media in trying to develop a set of rules that promotes close racing. To some extent these issues have been borne out in our analysis.

The 2017 season earned a paltry single point on our scoring system compared to 53 points for the overall winner: 2012. On the other hand 2017’s poor showing highlights just how great the top seasons really were.

WILL 2018 PROVIDE BETTER RACING?

So should we be expecting more of the same in 2018? Or can Formula 1 get back to the glory days? Well, consider these points for a moment:

    • Since the inception of the current hybrid era Mercedes have been totally dominant…until 2017. Ferrari broke the drought last year and seriously challenged Mercedes for the Championship. They will have learned from their mistakes and continued their development over the winter. We expect them to be very competitive again this year.
    • Mercedes is …well…Mercedes. They’ll definitely be up the pointy end again and Lewis Hamilton will be gunning for a raft of new world records. But his Finnish teammate won the last two grand prix of the 2017 season and will be working very hard to prove he’s not simply the “Number 2 Driver”.
    • Red Bull Racing were plagued with reliability problems in 2017 but still managed to put both their drivers on the winner’s podium. The Renault works team are taking engine development very seriously and with a reliable power train, RBR may just find themselves within striking distance of the Championship in 2018
    • McLaren. Ah McLaren. It’s been a (very!) tough few years with the disastrous Honda partnership but a new age is dawning. Despite being woefully underpowered McLaren appeared to have a very competitive chassis last year. With the new Renault partnership they will effectively be on a level playing field with Red Bull Racing. Like RBR they may actually be a chance to take the title this year – now wouldn’t that be something! And with Fernando Alonso, perhaps one of the greatest drivers of the modern era, anything could happen.
    • Renault have been rebuilding their works team over the past few years and should now be in a position to start moving toward the sharp end of the field. While we wouldn’t expect them to have quite matched RBR this year in terms of overall package development they may just surprise us and start really bringing the fight to the lead teams. With the Hulk and Chili Sainz pushing each other the Renault works team could just be the dark horse of 2018.

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Of course there are many other great stories and rivalries unfolding amongst the remaining teams too. But what we are really talking about here is the degree of genuine competition for the Drivers and Constructors championships. The signs look positive for 2018.

While some positive steps were taken last year 2017 did not rank highly in our factor model. Will 2018 bring improved racing and challenge the Best Seasons of F1 History?

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