F1 Bytes

What a season we have just witnessed!

With emotions still running high many pundits are saying 2021 was the best season in the history of the sport. The season-long battle between Hamilton and Verstappen was absolutely awesome but objectively was the season as a whole the best ever? That’s a question we hope to answer soon as we compare the stats of 2021 and see if it tops 2012 as our previous winner of the best season in F1 history. Stay tuned…

Though the focus for the season was on the two main protagonists there were also some stunning drives and results for a number of other drivers. We know Max and Lewis dominated their teammates during the season but who were the other teammate winners in their respective head-to-head battles?

Many of you check how your favourite driver is performing compared to their teammate throughout the year using our H2H tables, updated shorty after each race. But, as they say, a picture tells a thousand words so at season end we generate “radar charts” to really show how each driver has measured up compared to their teammate over the full season.

Enjoy!

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For a full description of the six H2H factors check out our H2H Explanatory Notes.

MERCEDES

	Bottas	Hamilton	Winner
Points	226	387	Hamilton
Race Result	3	14	Hamilton
Qualifying	5	17	Hamilton
Fastest Lap	7	13	Hamilton
Laps in Top 10	972	1250	Hamilton
Best Result	1st	1st (x8)	Hamilton

WINNER: Lewis Hamilton, 6 : 0

It must have been tough for Valtteri Bottas (and Sergio Perez) in 2021 knowing that not far into the season the team was relying on him to be a wingman to support Lewis Hamilton’s title bid. Unfortunately for fans of the silver arrows Lewis missed out on his eighth title. Arguably Hamilton might have had a better opportunity to secure the title had Valtteri been more consistently harrying Max during the season.

In his last year with Mercedes Bottas had some good drives including his win in the Turkish Grand Prix. Unfortunately, at season’s end Valtteri recorded another 6:0 loss against Lewis in their head-to-head comparison.

Valterri Bottas is without doubt an extremely capable driver. Had he been against a teammate other than the seven-time World Champion he may well have scored better in our H2H factors.

But it is what it is. And at the end of his five-year stint with Mercedes Bottas bettered Hamilton in only one factor (most laps in top 10 in 2017) out of 30 possible factors. We can’t wait to see how George Russell compares to Lewis in 2022 and are fairly confident Valtteri will win significantly more factors next year against Guanyu Zhou, his rookie teammate at Alfa Romeo.

RED BULL RACING

Drivers:	Pérez v Verstappen
Team:	Red Bull
Races:	22
H2H Winner:	Verstappen (0/6/0)

	Pérez	Verstappen	Winner
Points	190	395	Verstappen
Race Result	0	17	Verstappen
Qualifying	2	20	Verstappen
Fastest Lap	6	13	Verstappen
Laps in Top 10	1068	1146	Verstappen
Best Result	1st	1st (x10)	Verstappen

WINNER: Max Verstappen, 6 : 0

What a year for Max Verstappen! The Dutchman had an exceptional season securing the World Drivers Championship on the last lap of the last race against arguably F1’s GOAT.

It was seriously neck and neck all season between Max and Lewis but unfortunately for Sergio Perez not nearly as close a competition in-house at RBR. Like Alex Albon before him Checo went down 6:0 to the flying Dutchman in our six factor H2H. Unlike Alex, Checo did manage to out qualify Max on two occasions.

The H2H result is not that flattering for the likeable Mexican but as a rookie in the RBR team Perez did have some great drives. On top of his one and only win at Azerbaijan Checo was often in the mix. At both Abu Dhabi and Brazil he put up some memorable defence driving to temporarily keep Hamilton behind him and assist his teammate.

It will be interesting to see if Perez can improve his performance against Verstappen in 2022. In recent years Red Bull management have been widely criticised for churning through drivers. Perhaps the team will now take stock and appreciate the contribution the seasoned Mexican can provide knowing that very few drivers are actually capable of consistently getting close to their new World Champion.

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FERRARI

Drivers:	Leclerc v Sainz
Team:	Ferrari
Races:	22
H2H Winner:	Leclerc (3/2/1)

	Leclerc	Sainz	Winner
Points	159	164	Sainz
Race Result	14	6	Leclerc
Qualifying	13	9	Leclerc
Fastest Lap	12	7	Leclerc
Laps in Top 10	1001	1186	Sainz
Best Result	2nd	2nd	draw

WINNER: Charles Leclerc, 3 : 2

At the end of an interesting season inside the scuderia Charles Leclerc and Carlos Sainz final head-to-head was exactly the same as it was at the mid-season break with Leclerc beating Sainz by one factor score. This matchup was always going to be a fascinating one after Charles beat Seb Vettel 6:0 in 2020 and Carlos bettered Lando Norris 5:1 at McLaren.

The matchup didn’t disappoint. Ferrari didn’t have the pace of the Mercedes and Red Bull and although they didn’t win a race for the second year in a row the team definitely made headway against their mid-team rivals.

Chili Sainz had an extremely strong year just ousting Norris for fifth in the Championship and finishing two places ahead of his arguably more fancied teammate. If Ferrari can make another step in 2022 Sainz and Leclerc may well be the strongest driver pairing on the grid and both seem ready for a tilt at the title.

MCLAREN

Drivers:	Norris v Ricciardo
Team:	McLaren
Races:	22
H2H Winner:	Norris (5/1/0)

	Norris	Ricciardo	Winner
Points	160	115	Norris
Race Result	14	6	Norris
Qualifying	15	7	Norris
Fastest Lap	17	3	Norris
Laps in Top 10	1073	808	Norris
Best Result	2nd	1st	Ricciardo

WINNER: Lando Norris, 5 : 1

At the start of the 2021 season the McLaren teammates were another new pairing that lead many to wonder who would come out on top. At the end of the season it didn’t end up being close with the young Brit comprehensively beating his more experienced Aussie teammate.

It seemed to take Daniel Ricciardo the first half of the season to get to grips with the McLaren at which stage Lando Norris was beating Ricciardo 6:0 in the factor score. The second half of the season was far more positive for the Honey Badger with the obvious highlight his stunning win at the Italian Grand Prix – the team’s first since Jenson Button in Brazil 2012.

Ricciardo may have got the win but Lando Norris’ season was an exceptional one. Lando had some outstanding qualifying and race results and was unlucky to lose fifth place in the championship to Carlos Sainz by 4.5 points. Speaking of luck the Brit looked certain to take a win for McLaren at the Russian Grand Prix before the rain and the following confusion denied him top spot.

McLaren has one of the strongest (and most popular) driver lineups and with budget caps and new regulations set for 2022 the top teams will need to keep a close eye on the Woking based outfit.

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ALPINE

Drivers:	Alonso v Ocon
Team:	Alpine F1 Team
Races:	22
H2H Winner:	Alonso (3/1/2)

	Alonso	Ocon	Winner
Points	81	74	Alonso
Race Result	9	9	draw
Qualifying	11	11	draw
Fastest Lap	18	2	Alonso
Laps in Top 10	709	685	Alonso
Best Result	3rd	1st	Ocon

WINNER: Fernando Alonso, 3 : 1

The return of a Champion to the F1 paddock. After a sabbatical from F1 since 2018 expectations were high to see if Fernando Alonso still had the pace.

He did.

Though there were some difficult races for Alonso and it took some time for him to adjust to the Alpine there were more than a few glimpses of the legendary speed and fighting spirit of the two time Champion.

Alonso’s podium at Qatar was his first in seven years and few would forget his memorable defence to keep the charging Lewis Hamilton behind him at the Hungarian Grand Prix. His record against his teammates is exceptional as we saw in our previous article – How good is Fernando Alonso Really?

The 3:1 scoreline doesn’t perhaps give enough credit to Esteban Ocon and how close the two teammates were. The tied race result and qualifying factors show just how close it was. Esteban’s win in the frenetic Hungarian Grand Prix was testament to the work the team have done over recent years. Fernando’s embrace of the young Frenchman at the end of the race was a good indication of how closely the two are working together to move the team forward.

It is perhaps hard to see Alpine making the required steps to consistently challenge the top few teams in 2022 but given half a sniff both Alonso and Ocon would be hard to beat.

ALPHA TAURI

Drivers:	Gasly v Tsunoda
Team:	AlphaTauri
Races:	22
H2H Winner:	Gasly (6/0/0)

	Gasly	Tsunoda	Winner
Points	110	32	Gasly
Race Result	13	3	Gasly
Qualifying	21	1	Gasly
Fastest Lap	14	4	Gasly
Laps in Top 10	792	389	Gasly
Best Result	3rd	4th	Gasly

WINNER: Pierre Gasly, 6 : 0

One of the most impressive drivers of 2021 was without doubt Pierre Gasly. His ability to consistently go deep into Q3 was outstanding.

The 6:0 defeat of rookie Yuki Tsnoda was the same result Gasly scored over Daniil Kvyat in 2020. Having been unceremoniously dumped by Red Bull 12 races into the 2019 season Gasly has gone from strength to strength. Perhaps the pressure of driving for the mother team against Max Verstappen was too much at the time for the young Frenchman but surely some of the top teams must have their eye on the him now.

For Tsunoda there was a few flashes of brilliance including his impressive fourth place in the final race. Hopefully with a season now under his belt he can show some more consistency in 2022 and more regularly challenge his teammate.

ASTON MARTIN

Drivers:	Stroll v Vettel
Team:	Aston Martin
Races:	22
H2H Winner:	Vettel (2/3/1)

	Stroll	Vettel	Winner
Points	34	43	Vettel
Race Result	10	7	Stroll
Qualifying	8	14	Vettel
Fastest Lap	10	10	draw
Laps in Top 10	582	502	Stroll
Best Result	6th	2nd	Vettel

WINNER: Sebastian Vettel, 3 : 2

In 2021 the newly branded Aston Martin Cognizant Formula 1 Team welcomed four time Champion Sebastian Vettel into the fold. Seb didn’t disappoint beating Lance Stroll in the head-to-head and taking second place at Hungary (even though no points were awarded due to a fuel sample infringement).

Though both drivers showed pace at times the season was marred by inconsistency and for a marque with the heritage of Aston Martin the team will be hoping to be more frequently in the top 10 in 2022. Lance Stroll has showed some serious pace at times in his career, especially in wet conditions, but since leaving Williams in 2018 has been consistently bettered by his teammates in our head-to-head scoring.

The Canadian arguably has a relatively safe seat – his father instrumental in funding the team – but if Aston Martin have serious designs on fighting at the front of the grid Stroll will need to improve his consistency and race pace.

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WILLIAMS

Drivers:	Latifi v Russell
Team:	Williams
Races:	22
H2H Winner:	Russell (0/6/0)

	Latifi	Russell	Winner
Points	7	16	Russell
Race Result	2	14	Russell
Qualifying	2	20	Russell
Fastest Lap	8	12	Russell
Laps in Top 10	85	219	Russell
Best Result	7th	2nd	Russell

WINNER: George Russell, 6 : 0

In his last season at Williams before his big promotion to the Championship winning Mercedes team George Russell left with a clean sweep of his teammate.

Williams made a big step in 2021. George’s second place at the rain shortened Belgium Grand Prix, while unexpected, was a good indication of the progress the team has made. Nicolas Latifi managed to out qualify “Mr Saturday” on two occasions in 2021 after being beaten by Russell to nil in 2020. The Canadian was runner up in the 2019 F2 Championship so although arguably a “pay driver” in F1 he does have a solid pedigree.

George Russell’s comprehensive win in their head-to-head battle shows the talent that the rookie F2 Champion clearly has. It will be interesting to see how the now settled Latifi deals with the returning Alex Albon in 2022 at Williams.

It will be truly fascinating to see how George Russell compares to his new teammate Lewis Hamilton next year.

ALFA ROMEO

Drivers:	Giovinazzi v Räikkönen
Team:	Alfa Romeo
Races:	20
H2H Winner:	Räikkönen (1/5/0)

	Giovinazzi	Räikkönen	Winner
Points	3	10	Räikkönen
Race Result	8	10	Räikkönen
Qualifying	13	7	Giovinazzi
Fastest Lap	6	12	Räikkönen
Laps in Top 10	158	259	Räikkönen
Best Result	9th	8th (x2)	Räikkönen

WINNER: Kimi Räikkönen, 5 : 1

The end of an era.

After 349 starts the 2021 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix was the final race for the enigmatic Kimi Raikonnen. The Ice Man went out on top, again beating Antonio Giovinazzi in their head-to-head battle.

As was the case in 2020 Giovinazzi’s only factor win was in qualifying and although the Italian showed serious pace at times in the second half of the season it was perhaps unsurprising that the team decided on a completely new driver line-up for 2022.

It’s hard to know where Alfa will sit in 2022 but their destiny to a large extent relies on Ferrari continuing to improve their power unit and customer supplied parts.

Finland certainly punches above it’s weight in Formula 1 (and motorsport in general) – their “sisu” is impossible to capture in statistics. Raikonnen was no different. A Ferrari World Champion and crowd favourite Kimi’s one liners and blunt dismissal of banal interviewer questions became the stuff of legend.

He will be missed.

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HAAS

Drivers:	Mazepin v Schumacher
Team:	Haas F1 Team
Races:	21
H2H Winner:	Schumacher (0/5/1)

	Mazepin	Schumacher	Winner
Points	0	0	draw
Race Result	3	11	Schumacher
Qualifying	1	19	Schumacher
Fastest Lap	1	16	Schumacher
Laps in Top 10	0	24	Schumacher
Best Result	14th	12th	Schumacher

WINNER Mick Schumacher, 5 : 0

With a completely new driver line-up for 2021 there was much interest to see how Mick Schumacher, 2020’s F2 champion, would fare. Driving the slowest car on the grid the only thing Schumacher could really do was to beat his teammate – which he comprehensively did.

With a best result of 5th in the 2020 F2 Championship the team’s second rookie Mazepin was always going to struggle against Schumacher. And so it eventuated with the Russian out-qualified 19 to 1, consistently not even close to the German.

The HAAS team has been in decline over recent years and 2021 was the first year since their 2016 debut that the team hasn’t scored a single championship point. With an unchanged driver line-up in 2022 it may be another tough year although with a significant change to the regulations anything could happen. If Schumacher again clean sweeps his teammate the question will be which of the top teams has room for the likeable German in 2023.
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What a fantastic first half of the 2021 season we have seen. Thankfully the summer break is now over and it’s time for Lewis Hamilton and Max Verstappen to renew their stoush for the 2021 World Drivers Championship.

There have been some epic battles so far this year between the seven time World Champion and the young Dutchman desperate to take the crown. The graph below shows the changes in the Championship lead during the season.

Leadership changes was one of the eight factors we looked at in our Best Season in Formula 1 History analysis. Both 2010 and 1986 topped the charts for this factor with a total of ten leadership changes over the course their respective seasons. 2021 has currently only seen two changes but the statistic doesn’t do justice to how tightly fought the 2021 title has been to date.

POINTS MARGIN

The next chart is a good representation of the frustration Max must have felt going into the summer break. After the second race in Austria Red Bull’s number one was heading the Mercedes driver by 32 points. In the space of the last three races Lewis has turned the tables to now lead by 8 points.

So does an eight point lead at the summer break mean Hamilton is odds on favourite to secure a record eighth title? Lets look at what has happened over the history of Formula 1…

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WHAT CAN HISTORY TELL US?

At the mid-season break in 2017 we we developed a model to estimate the likelihood that each driver would go on to win the Championship. This model analyses historical data that allows us to map the current season standings to each driver’s probability of winning. The chart below shows the fitted curve against the actual WDC wins from different points margins at mid-season over history.

To clarify what all this means, a driver who is leading by 75 points at midseason (+75 on the x-axis) has historically gone on to win the Championship about 90% of the time. Alternatively a driver who is trailing the leader by 25 points (-25 on the x-axis) at mid-season has still gone on to win the Championship nearly 20% of the time.

Mapping our current season standings to the historical model and normalising the results so that they add to 100% gives us the probabilities described in the chart below. We’ve also added the current probabilities implied by Betfair markets to see how punters are reading things compared to our historical model.

As you can see both Betfair and our historical model show this season is a two horse race. Both models suggest no other driver than Max or Lewis has any meaningful probability of winning this year’s title.

WILL LEWIS HAMILTON WIN?

Our model suggests Lewis Hamilton has a 59% chance of taking the title this year versus a Betfair probability of just 52%. Why do the punters see this as a tighter race than our model suggests based on the current margin? We think the answer lies in the fact that Lewis’ current lead has had more to do with Verstappen’s recent DNFs than the impact of outright pace. This is something our simple model just doesn’t capture.

WILL MAX VERSTAPPEN WIN?

The model gives Max 41% chance of winning the 2021 Championship versus a Betfair probability of 46%. So as we have seen in the past punters continue to give the trailing driver a higher probability of winning than the statistical model. Does the betting public have a general bias towards backing the underdog? Possibly. But in this case we think this is genuinely a far tighter championship than our model implies.

One back of the envelope stat we can use to support this view is to sum the total points margins carried by the leading driver at the end of each race so far. Essentially the total area captured by each driver in the second chart above. On this measure Verstappen has carried a total lead of 78 points so far this season versis Lewis’ total lead of 38 points. Game on!

HAMILTON’S CHAMPIONSHIP TO LOSE

Lewis Hamilton goes into the second half of the season with an eight point lead but clearly both models show the probability of either Lewis or Max winning is tight.

Let’s hope the second half of the season delivers the same intensity as the fist 11 races have in what has been a brilliant fight to date. Hamilton v Verstappen…let the fight continue…

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