F1 Bytes

The teams now move on to the seventh stop of the season – the Canadian Grand Prix. The race has been part of the Championship since 1967 (with three years not run) and is considered one of the season’s best by many.

Held at the Circuit Gilles Villeneuve since 1978 the Canadian GP enjoys a picturesque setting on Notre Dame Island in Montreal and is also one of the best when it comes to racing and overtaking.

In stark contrast to last time out in Monaco the Canadian GP has good opportunities for wheel to wheel action and overtakes.

SO HOW DOES CANADA COMPARE FOR OVERTAKES?

The Circuit Gilles Villeneuve has a number of opportunities for overtaking with four braking zones defined as “hard” by brake supplier Brembo – it is the hardest circuit on brakes on the calendar. Following the 2017 Regulation changes the circuit was one of the few to actually have more overtakes last year than in the 2016 race. The 2017 race had 33 overtakes (as defined by our criteria) which compared to an average of 22 over all tracks that year.

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It’s hard to forget Jenson Button’s dramatic win in 2011 with McLaren. Having started seventh on the grid JB was last on lap 37 of 70 after his second crash of the race. After a number of safety cars and a red flag (the race lasted a record 4+ hours) JB passed Seb Vettel for the lead on the last lap to take one of the all time great GP wins! Passing is definitely possible in Canada!

SO DOES THAT MEAN QUALIFYING ISN’T IMPORTANT?

Well yes and no! A good qualifying result is still important in Canada as 48% of winners have started from pole – slightly higher than the average of all tracks.  The difference to most tracks though is that 21% of winners in Canada have started from the third row or worse on the grid. Of the current tracks with more than three GP’s to date only Spa has a higher proportion (24%) of winners from 4th or lower on the grid.

Dan Ricciardo’s win in 2014 (the first of his career) after starting from sixth on the grid is a good example of the opportunity for drivers to advance on this fantastic circuit. Perhaps an even better example is Jenson Button’s win from seventh in 2011 – as we mentioned above that was an amazing race!

The lowest grid position to win in Canada was Jacques Laffite who started 10th in 1981 in his Ligier-Matra. That race was a wet one so with showers forecast Sunday the weather could also play a part in mixing up the 2018 race result!

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WHAT HAPENNED HERE LAST YEAR?

As you will see below Lewis Hamilton is the master of Canada. 2017 was no exception with the Briton starting on pole and leading the entire race for the win (and scoring the trifecta with the fastest lap as well!).

Not so straight forward was Seb Vettel’s race.  As you can see from the Race Map above after starting second on the grid he sustained front wing damage and after pitting was last.

Vettel stormed through the field on fresher tyres after Ferrari elected for an alternate two stop strategy and finished just behind Dan Ricciardo in fourth

Lance Stroll became the first Canadian since Jacques Villeneuve to score a point in a GP (Stroll’s first points). Lance had an impressive race starting 17th and bringing his Williams home in ninth place.

WINNERS AND PODIUM RECORDS

Eight of the current drivers have finished on the podium in Canada though there is clearly one standout – Lewis Hamilton. Of his 10 starts Lewis has won six times and finished third on one occasion.

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	1st
2nd	Hamilton (6x)
Vettel (2x)	Alonso (1x)	3rd
Alonso (1x)	Vettel (1x)	Bottas (2x)
Bottas (1x)	Ricciardo (1x)	Alonso (1x)
Grosjean (1x)	Räikkönen (1x)	Hamilton (1x)
		Pérez (1x)
		Ricciardo (1x)
		Räikkönen (1x)
		Vettel (1x)

LAP RECORDS

As has been the case for every track visited so far this season the qualifying lap record was set in 2017 – this time by Lewis Hamilton who we shall see has been imperious in Canada.

Ferrari’s Rubens Barrichello holds the race lap record in Canada. This is a break from the trend we’ve seen to date where lap records have generally been held by the Brazilian’s seven times World Champion team mate Michael Schumacher from the same year.

	Qualifying	Race	Difference
2017	1:11.459 (HAM)	1:14.551 (HAM)	-0:03.092
Record	1:11.459 (2017 HAM)	1:13.622 (2004 BAR)	-0:02.163

WHO HAS THE QUALIFYING EDGE IN CANADA?

Both Mercedes drivers have excellent quali track biases in Canada while the Ferrari drivers have both found it harder here. Riccardo and Verstappen have also fared well in qualifying on this circuit historically.

The two stand out stats are Hamilton and Raikkonen. Lewis has been an exceptional qualifyer in Canada on average starting over two places higher up the grid than his career average. Valteri Bottas has an even better quali bias than Lewis in Canada so the Mercs are going to take some beating to pole. In contrast Kimi hasn’t performed well – qualifying over a full grid position worse on average in his 12 starts in Canada versus his career average.

Three of the current drivers have held pole at the Circuit Gilles Villeneuve – Hamilton, Vettel and Alonso.  Fernando has traditionally preformed very well in qualifying being  averaging two places higher on the grid here than his career average. Be that as it may there will likely need to be some extraordinary circumstances for the McLaren to challenge Lewis and Seb.

	Circuit Gilles Villeneuve				Career
Driver	2017	Best	Ave	Starts	Best	Ave	Starts	Bias
HAM	1	1	1.7	10	1	3.8	214	-2.1
VET	2	1	5.6	9	1	4.8	204	0.8
BOT	3	3	4.2	5	1	7.5	104	-3.3
RAI	4	3	7.4	12	1	6.2	248	1.2
RIC	6	4	8.2	6	1	9.1	134	-0.9
VER	5	5	7.3	3	2	7.6	66	-0.3
PER	8	8	11.5	6	2	11.0	141	0.5
OCO	9	9	9	1	5	12.6	34	-3.6
SAI	13	11	13.3	3	5	11.3	65	2
HUL	10	7	10.4	7	1	10.0	142	0.4
STR	17	17	17	1	4	15.3	26	1.7
GRO	14	5	12.3	6	2	11.7	130	0.6
MAG	18	12	15	2	4	13.4	66	1.6
ALO	12	1	5.5	14	1	7.5	282	-2
VAN	16	16	16	1	7	13.3	27	2.7
GAS	–	–	–	–	6	14.8	10	–
ERI	19	13	18	4	10	17.9	81	0.1
HAR	–	–	–	–	11	16.3	10	–

RACE RESULTS: LEWIS HAMILTON DOMINATES CANADA

Of the current drivers Lewis Hamilton has been the standout performer in Canada with a stunning six victories from his ten starts including having won the last three. With a total of seven wins the great Michael Schumacher is the only driver to have had more Canadian GP victories than Lewis. The odds look to be with the Brit to equal Schumacher’s record in 2018.

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Hamilton’s dominance is reflected in his race result track bias of finishing 2.3 places better than his overall career average. With an average finishing position of 1.3 after 10 starts Lewis will undoubtedly be the odds on favorite with bookies going into this weekend’s race.

Esteban Ocon also deserves a mention with his sixth place finish from his one and only start in Canada. This was 4.7 places better than his overall career average to date.

Romain Grosjean remains pointless in the Championship after six races – the longest dry spell in his career. With Kevin Magnussen leading the Frenchman 5:1 in their head to head this season RoGro will be desperate to make use of his slightly more favourable race result bias in Canada.

	Circuit Gilles Villeneuve					Career				Track
Driver	2017	Best	Ave	Sts	%Fin	Best	Ave	Sts	%Fin	Bias
HAM	1	1	1.3	10	70	1	3.6	214	89	-2.3
VET	4	1	3.7	9	100	1	3.9	205	86	-0.2
BOT	2	2	5.8	5	100	1	7.2	104	91	-1.4
RAI	7	1	5.5	14	93	1	5.0	279	78	0.5
RIC	3	1	8.8	6	100	1	8.1	135	85	0.7
VER	–	4	9.5	3	67	1	6.3	66	76	3.2
PER	5	3	8.5	6	100	2	9.2	142	88	-0.7
OCO	6	6	6	1	100	5	10.7	35	91	-4.7
SAI	–	9	10.5	3	67	4	9.6	66	71	0.9
HUL	8	5	9	7	86	4	9.5	143	80	-0.5
STR	9	9	9	1	100	3	11.7	26	85	-2.7
GRO	10	2	9.8	6	83	2	10.4	130	73	-0.6
MAG	12	9	12.3	3	100	2	11.4	67	82	0.9
ALO	16	1	6.1	15	60	1	5.6	299	82	0.5
VAN	14	14	14	1	100	7	11.4	27	74	2.6
GAS	–	–	–	–	–	4	12.1	11	82	–
ERI	13	13	14	4	75	8	14.3	82	76	-0.3
HAR	–	–	–	–	–	10	14.6	10	70	–

WHAT TO LOOK OUT FOR

Following his dominant weekend in Monaco Daniel Ricciardo will be keen to cement his current third place in the Championship standings. This task will be made more difficult by the near certainty that he will be taking grid penalties in Canada. As we’ve seen though, it’s certainly possible to climb back through the field here and Ricciardo is arguably the best overtaker in the business.

Can anyone stop Lewis Hamilton? With six wins  to date at this circuit he is a master in Montreal. It will be hard to stop Lewis extending his 14 point lead in the Championship but as we’ve seen all season it’s very close at the top.

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The 2018 Championship moves on to the sixth race of the season and what is arguably the most iconic of them all – the Monaco Grand Prix.

The Circuit de Monaco has hosted Grand Prix events since 1929 is still widely considered the jewel in F1’s crown.

Together with the Indianapolis 500 and the 24 hours of Le Mans the Monaco Grand Prix forms part of the Triple Crown of Motorsport – a crown Fernando Alonso has his eye on wearing (Fernando will try to add a Le Mans win to his achievements later in 2018). To date Graham Hill is the only driver to have achieved the Triple Crown.

It is perhaps not surprising that the record for the most wins in the Principaility is held by Ayrton Senna  – his quali performances are the stuff of legend as he showed in 1988 when he beat his team mate Alain Prost by 1.5 seconds to pole.

BUT IS IT REALLY IMPOSSIBLE TO OVERTAKE AT MONACO?

The accusation always levelled at Monaco is that the races are processional, and overtaking is impossible around the narrow track. But is that really true?

We took a look back at each Grand Prix going back to 1996 to see what the stats could tell us.

Overtakes over the last 20 years clearly show that the tight circuit generally does provide significantly less total overtakes compared to the average of all circuits – but not in all years.

The anomaly in that graph is clearly the race in 2008 – which shows that a relatively high number of overtakes are possible in Monaco.

The key influence in 2008 was that the race started in wet conditions but dried during the race which resulted in different strategies and some big performance differences between the cars at various stages of the race. And the winner in 2008? Lewis Hamilton.

When it comes to the race for podium positions overtaking is extremely rare. In the past 12 years there have only been four overtakes for position in the top three. Of these four only one was a legitimate overtake:

• 2016 Hamilton over Rosberg for 2nd – team order
• 2014 Raikkonen over Vettel for 3rd – gearbox issue for Seb
• 2008 Hamilton over Raikkonen for 3rd – pitlane penalty
• 2006 Raikkonen over Webber for 2nd – A LEGITMATE overtake as Webber ran wide

HOW DOES MONACO COMPARE TO OTHER TRACKS WHEN IT COMES TO OVERTAKING?

So we know passing other cars is tricky at Monaco, but how does the track compare to other circuits on the F1 calendar for overtaking?

Direct statistical comparisons can be difficult due to certain tracks only having a handful of races (like India and Korea, for example), so this graph shows the average number of overtakes at each track over the past 20 years, and only includes circuits that have hosted 10 or more races in that period.

And it’s no real surprise to see Monaco is bottom of the rankings. The principality circuit has an average of 12 overtakes per race, compared to 32 for Spa, 34 for Interlagos and a whopping 52 for Shanghai.

So overtaking in Monte Carlo is not impossible, but it is very, very tough, which makes a genuine overtake all the more impressive when it does happen. Here’s hoping some of the drivers can pull off a few this weekend.

SO DOES THAT MEAN YOU NEED TO BE ON POLE TO WIN?

Well, not necessarily – over the past three years the winner of the Monaco GP hasn’t started from pole.

And since 1950 the grid position of winners at Monaco aren’t hugely different to other circuits.

More telling are the stats over the last 20 years:

Over the past two decades no driver has won the Monaco GP starting outside the top three on the grid.

Before the recent run of three years of non-pole winners, the previous six races were won from pole with both Nico Rosberg and Mark Webber achieving the feat twice.

WHAT HAPPENED IN LAST YEARS RACE?

• In 2017 Kimi Raikkonen started on pole – his first since the 2008 French GP
• Sebastian Vettel won from 2nd on the grid after “”over-cutting” his pole sitting team mate
• 2017 was the first win for Ferrari at Monaco since 2001 and their first 1-2 since the 2010 German GP
• After starting 5th on the grid Dan Ricciardo followed Seb’s lead staying out longer on the ultra-softs and over-cutting Verstappen and Bottas
• As you can see from the race map Lewis Hamilton had an impressive race finishing 7th after starting 13th on the grid
• There were five retirements last year including the Saubers of Werhlein and Ericsson, the Renault of Hulkenberg, and the McLarens of Vandoorne and Button.
• Button had returned to Formula 1 to keep Alonso’s seat warm while he was off competing (and also retiring) in the Indy 500. An inauspicious end to a wonderful career in F1 for Button. Rubbing salt into the wounds he scored two penalty points on his super license for causing a collision with Wehrlein.

WINNERS AND PODIUM RECORDS

As mentioned above the record for the most wins at Monaco goes to Ayrton Senna with six. Both Graham Hill and Michael Schumacher won five Monaco GP’s.

Of the current drivers to have reached the podium only Checo Perez and Dan Ricciardo haven’t stood on the top step.  Having made the podium three times out of his four starts with Red Bull Ricciardo will be very keen to join his Aussie predecessor Mark Webber as a Monaco GP winner (Webber won for RBR in 2010 and 2012).

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	1st
2nd	Hamilton (2x)
Vettel (3x)	Alonso (2x)	3rd
Räikkönen (2x)	Vettel (2x)	Ricciardo (2x)
Hamilton (2x)	Räikkönen (1x)	Hamilton (1x)
Alonso (1x)		Alonso (1x)
Ricciardo (1x)		Räikkönen (1x)
		Pérez (1x)

LAP RECORDS

Surprise surprise the quali lap record was set in 2017 and the all time race record was again set by Michael Schumacher in his Ferrari in 2004. This pattern has been the same in every race to date this year that was also on the calender in 2004 – except Spain where Schumey set the record in 2006.

Following his amazing pole lap in 1988 (1.23.998) Ayrton Senna also set the fastest lap in the race – a 1.26.321 – though he famously crashed out off the race while comfortably leading. Sixteen years on Schumacher’s record was nearly 12 seconds quicker than the legendary Brazilians! Another 14 years later and Checo Perez’s fastest lap in 2017 was just under 4 tenths slower than Schumacher. In the German’s hands that 2004 Ferrari was a magnificent race car!

	Qualifying	Race	Difference
2017	1:12.178 (RAI)	1:14.820 (PER)	-0:02.642
Record	1:12.178 (2017 RAI)	1:14.439 (2004 MSC)	-0:02.261

WHO IS BEST AT QUALIFYING IN MONACO?

Of the Ferrari, Mercedes and Red Bull drivers only Raikkonen and Ricciardo  have a favourable quali track bias at Monaco – those two were also the 2017 and 2016 pole position holders respectively – though neither won the race.

A the time of writing Kimi was trading at 16:1 for the win at BetFair. For any punters out there that might just be an attractive wager!

Last time out in Spain Nico Hulkenberg failed to reach Q2 for the first time since the 2015 Spanish GP.  Chili Sainz out-qualified Hulkenberg for the first time in their 2018 head to head so the Hulk will be looking to make amends in Monaco. Sainz has on average qualified 4 places better at Monaco than in his career as a whole so the challenge may not be easy for the German. 

	Circuit de Monaco				Career
Driver	2017	Best	Ave	Starts	Best	Ave	Starts	Bias
HAM	14	1	5.4	11	1	3.8	212	1.6
VET	2	1	5.2	10	1	4.8	202	0.4
BOT	3	3	11.6	5	1	7.6	102	4
RAI	1	1	4.9	13	1	6.2	246	-1.3
RIC	5	1	6.8	6	1	9.2	132	-2.4
VER	4	4	11.7	3	2	7.4	64	4.3
PER	7	7	8.2	6	2	11.0	139	-2.8
OCO	16	16	16	1	5	12.8	32	3.2
SAI	6	6	7	3	5	11.4	63	-4.4
HUL	12	5	10.6	7	1	10.0	140	0.6
STR	18	18	18	1	4	15.0	24	3
GRO	8	5	11	6	2	11.7	128	-0.7
MAG	13	8	12.3	3	4	13.4	64	-1.1
ALO	–	1	7.3	14	1	7.5	280	-0.2
VAN	10	10	10	1	7	13.5	25	-3.5
GAS	–	–	–	–	6	15.8	8	–
ERI	20	17	19.2	4	10	17.9	79	1.3
HAR	–	–	–	–	11	15.9	8	–

RACE RESULTS: DAN RICCIARDO IS A MONACO SPECIALIST

Following on from his favourable quali bias Dan Ricciardo has an impressive 5 place race result bias.  That means that on average the Aussie has finished 5 places higher at Monaco than all other tracks combined during his F1 career.

Of the top two in the Championship Vettel’s average race result and track bias at Monaco are significantly better than Hamilton’s. With Lewis now leading the Championship and with the two having very similar career race result stats that advantage could be key for Seb finishing ahead of Lewis in Monaco.

Bear in mind though that Hamilton is the only driver in the top three teams who has managed to finish every Monaco GP he has started. To finish first you first have to finish!

	Circuit de Monaco					Career				Track
Driver	2017	Best	Ave	Sts	%Fin	Best	Ave	Sts	%Fin	Bias
HAM	7	1	4.4	11	100	1	3.6	212	89	0.8
VET	1	1	2.6	10	80	1	3.9	203	86	-1.3
BOT	4	4	10.5	5	80	1	7.3	102	91	3.2
RAI	2	1	6.5	15	73	1	5.0	277	79	1.5
RIC	3	2	3.2	6	67	1	8.2	133	85	-5
VER	5	5	5	3	33	1	6.3	64	75	-1.3
PER	13	3	10	7	71	2	9.2	140	88	0.8
OCO	12	12	12	1	100	5	10.9	33	94	1.1
SAI	6	6	8	3	100	4	9.6	64	70	-1.6
HUL	–	5	8.2	7	71	4	9.5	141	81	-1.3
STR	15	15	15	1	100	3	11.4	24	83	3.6
GRO	8	8	10.2	6	67	2	10.4	128	73	-0.2
MAG	10	10	10	3	67	2	11.4	65	82	-1.4
ALO	–	1	4.6	15	80	1	5.6	297	82	-1
VAN	–	–	–	1	0	7	11.2	25	76	–
GAS	–	–	–	–	–	4	12.8	9	89	–
ERI	–	11	12	4	50	8	14.4	80	75	-2.4
HAR	–	–	–	–	–	10	15.0	8	75	–

PITSTOPS

The optimal pitstop strategy last year was a one-stopper. Overall 12 cars completed a single stop, five cars completed two stops and two (unfortunate) cars completed three stops.

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For cars following a conventional one stop strategy the earliest pitstop was on lap 33 and the latest on lap 46 (out of a total of 78 laps).  The median for this group was lap 38. Strangely no two drivers in this group pitted on the same lap.

TRACK SPEED AND CORNERS

There’s plenty of corners in Monaco with a total of 19 turns compared to an average of 16.75 turns for all tracks. They’re pretty unforgiving corners too – a small error can spell disaster for a driver’s race weekend.

Monaco is the shortest race distance on the F1 calendar at 260.3 km and last year recorded the third slowest average speed for the winning driver at 149.1 km/h.

With relatively slow speeds and many corners Monaco favours cars with efficient aero packages. So while the Renault power unit still suffers from a power deficit relative to Mercedes and Ferrari Monaco tends to level the playing field.  With perhaps the greatest aerodynamicist in the history of the sport in Adrian Newey, Red Bull have generally done well in Monaco.

THINGS TO LOOK OUT FOR THIS WEEKEND

Charles Leclerc is the first Monegasque to compete in their home race since Olivier Beretta for Larousse in 1994. The only local ever to have reached the podium was Louis Chiron who finished 3rd in a Maserati in 1950 – he was 50 years old at the time and it was the first ever season of the F1 Championship! There would need to be an amazing turn of events for Charles to make the podium this year but his performances to date suggest he may well have an opportunity in the future.

Can Daniel Ricciardo make the most of his impressive qualifying and race bias at Monaco. With Red Bull seemingly on the pace of both Ferrari and Mercedes at tracks not power dependant this should be a great opportunity for both Dan and Max to challenge for pole.

With Lewis Hamilton now 17 points clear of Seb Vettel in the Championship and 37 ahead off his team mate in 3rd the title challenges will need to claw some points back in Monaco to keep their Championship hopes alive.

Get ready for race weekend – at the magnificent Monaco GP!

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