Following an imperious display by Lewis Hamilton last Sunday F1 now moves on to the second leg of the first ever triple header – the Austrian GP. First held in 1964 the Austrian GP moved to its current location in 1970 and has had a disjointed run ever since.
Redesigned by Herman Tilke in the 90’s the current Red Bull Ring was added in 2014 after a 10 year absence. Located near Spielberg in the Styrian Mountains the track is definitely one of the most picturesque on the calendar.
Will the upgraded Mercedes power unit prove to be the difference again in Austria or can Seb Vettel regain the lead of the Championship?
WHAT HAPPENNED HERE LAST YEAR?
Prior to the race in 2017 Sebastian Vettel was leading the Championship by 14 points over Lewis Hamilton. Coincidentally in 2018 the points difference is the same but the roles are reversed!
Valteri Bottas controlled the race starting from pole and maintaining his position after his and Vettel’s one and only pit stops. Hamiton qualified thrid but after a five place grid penalty for a gearbox replacement ended up eigth on the grid but making it to fourth at the chequered flag.
After running last until his late retirement last week in France Fernando Alonso’s race was even worse last year in Austria. After a first lap incident Alonso retired without completing a lap (hence his papaya with blue dots line is not to be seen again in our race map after starting 12th). Plenty of work for McLaren to do this weekend!
Lewis Hamilton is the only driver to have climbed the podium steps three times in Austria. With a win and two second places it’s fair to say Hamilton is the current King of the Ring. An honorable mention should also go to his former teammate Nico Rosberg who had back-to-back wins in 2014 and 2015.
And with the only other win going to Valtteri Bottas in last year’s race the real King of the Ring is Mercedes – they have won every race at the circuit since its reintroduction in 2014.
1st
2nd
Hamilton (1x)
Hamilton (2x)
Bottas (1x)
3rd
Vettel (1x)
Räikkönen (1x)
Verstappen (1x)
Ricciardo (1x)
Bottas (1x)
A NEW RECORD IN LAP RECORDS!
The current F1 Regs have certainly been responsible for some very quick cars. As in every other race to date this season the qualifying lap record was set last year (excluding France that was not on the calendar in 2017).
Unlike every other race to date the race lap record as well as the quali record was also set in 2017. At all tracks but one so far this year the race lap record was set in 2004 by Michael Schumacher (and once by Rubens Barrichelo) in their potent Ferraris. The fact that the race was not held at the Red Bull Ring (then the A1 Ring) in 2004 may account for the lack of a Prancing Horse as the record holder!
Qualifying
Race
Difference
2017
1:04.251 (BOT)
1:07.411 (HAM)
-0:03.160
Record
1:04.251 (2017 BOT)
1:07.411 (2017 HAM)
-0:03.160
QUALIFYING: MERCEDES DRIVERS OVERSHADOW FERRARI ‘S
Both Mercedes drivers have performed well in qualifying at the Red Bull Ring. Of the two Valteri Bottas has the most favourable quali bias with an average qualifying result in Austria over three positions better than his career average.
In contrast, their championship rivals from Ferrari both have unfavourable quali biases on this circuit.
As the home track for Red Bull Racing it’s an added bonus that both their drivers have achieved a strong qualifying record here compared to their career averages.
Force India has seen one of the most closely fought head to head battles so far this season and last. In Austria Ocon appears to have the upper hand over Perez with a 5.2 place favourable spread on quali bias. Similarly Hulkenberg has a 4.2 place quali bias spread over his Renault teammate Carlos Sainz.
Red Bull Ring
Career
Driver
2017
Best
Ave
Starts
Best
Ave
Starts
Bias
HAM
3
1
3.5
4
1
3.8
215
-0.3
VET
2
2
5.5
4
1
4.8
205
0.7
BOT
1
1
4.2
4
1
7.4
105
-3.2
RAI
4
4
9
4
1
6.2
249
2.8
RIC
5
5
7.8
4
1
9.1
135
-1.3
VER
6
6
7.3
3
2
7.5
67
-0.2
PER
8
8
12.8
4
2
11.0
142
1.8
OCO
9
9
9
1
5
12.4
35
-3.4
SAI
10
10
12.7
3
5
11.3
66
1.4
HUL
11
3
7.2
4
1
10.0
143
-2.8
STR
18
18
18
1
4
15.4
27
2.6
GRO
7
7
11.5
4
2
11.8
131
-0.3
MAG
15
6
12.7
3
4
13.3
67
-0.6
ALO
12
4
11.2
4
1
7.6
283
3.6
VAN
13
13
13
1
7
13.4
28
-0.4
GAS
–
–
–
–
6
14.9
11
–
ERI
19
12
18.5
4
10
17.9
82
0.6
HAR
–
–
–
–
11
15.9
11
–
HOW IMPORTANT IS QUALIFYING?
Our stats only include the four races to date at the Red Bull Ring so it would be unwise to read too much them. To date no-one has managed to take the chequered flag from a starting grid position beyond third.
During the seven races at the A1-Ring between 1997 and 2003 on only one occasion did the winner start from lower than third on the grid. In 2001 David Coulthard won the race for McLaren-Mercedes after starting seventh. Qualifying in the top three is definitely important in Austria.
RACE RESULTS: A TRACK FOR ALONSO TO FORGET?
Of the current drivers who have competed in all four races at the Red Bull Ring there are two standouts at each end of the spectrum in the race bias stats – Valteri Bottas and Fernando Alonso. Valteri’s win in 2017 improved his track bias to 2.7 – much better than his Mercedes team mate.
Unfortunately for Fernando he has an unfavourable bias of 5.9 which means on average the Spaniard has finished nearly six places lower in Austria than his average at all other tracks during his career.
After strong practice sessions last week Romain Grosjean’s weekend went downhill with a crash in Q3 and then finishing just outside the points in 11th. After an incredibly close tussle with his team mate last year Grosjean is still pointless in the Championship compared to Kevin Magnussen’s 27 points. RoGro will certainly be banking on his slightly better Red Bull Ring race bias compared to KMag to finally give him some momentum in their one sided head to head!
Red Bull Ring
Career
Track
Driver
2017
Best
Ave
Sts
%Fin
Best
Ave
Sts
%Fin
Bias
HAM
4
1
2.2
4
100
1
3.6
215
89
-1.4
VET
2
2
3
4
50
1
3.9
206
86
-0.9
BOT
1
1
4.5
4
100
1
7.2
105
91
-2.7
RAI
5
3
6
4
75
1
5.0
280
79
1
RIC
3
3
6.5
4
100
1
8.1
136
85
-1.6
VER
–
2
5
3
67
1
6.2
67
76
-1.2
PER
7
6
9.8
4
100
2
9.2
143
88
0.6
OCO
8
8
8
1
100
5
10.7
36
92
-2.7
SAI
–
8
8
3
33
4
9.5
67
72
-1.5
HUL
13
6
11.8
4
100
4
9.5
144
81
2.3
STR
10
10
10
1
100
3
11.7
27
81
-1.7
GRO
6
6
9
4
75
2
10.4
131
73
-1.4
MAG
–
7
10.5
3
67
2
11.4
68
82
-0.9
ALO
–
5
11.5
4
50
1
5.6
300
81
5.9
VAN
12
12
12
1
100
7
11.6
28
75
0.4
GAS
–
–
–
–
–
4
12.0
12
83
–
ERI
15
13
15.2
4
100
8
14.3
83
76
0.9
HAR
–
–
–
–
–
10
14.6
11
64
–
OVERTAKES
Overtakes are certainly possible in Austria though with only 11 last year (according to our definition) the issues we discussed regarding the current cars ability to follow another car in The Need for Speed were borne out on this circuit last year. The addition of a third DRS zone at this year’s race will hopefully assist in more (albeit contrived) overtakes.
Let’s hope 2018 sees some more overtaking action than last year. It would be nice to see something closer to 2016 where the Red Bull Ring saw 50% more overtakes than the season average.
WHAT TO LOOK OUT FOR
Mercedes have certainly been dominant at the Red Bull Ring over the past four years. In addition, their updated power unit revealed at Paul Ricard appeared to give the Silver Arrows the edge over Ferrari and Red Bull. The combination of these two factors will surely put both Hamilton and Bottas in the box seat this Sunday?
Renault are set to bring an updated MGU-K this weekend which will be available to both the factory and customer teams. Fernando Alonso in the Renault-powered McLaren with no doubt be happy to take any advantage he can get at what seems to be a bogey track for one of the sport’s best.
Two full-season Rookies have achieved a clean 6:0 sweep over their team mates in our head to head battles so far this year. Pierre Gasly and Charles Leclerc have had a phenomenal start to the year and both Brendon Hartley and Marcus Ericsson will be super keen to claw some ground back.
Will Lewis Hamilton continue to be the King of the Red Bull Ring?
Großer Preis von Kanada 2017, Sonntag – Wolfgang Wilhelm
The teams now move on to the seventh stop of the season – the Canadian Grand Prix. The race has been part of the Championship since 1967 (with three years not run) and is considered one of the season’s best by many.
Held at the Circuit Gilles Villeneuve since 1978 the Canadian GP enjoys a picturesque setting on Notre Dame Island in Montreal and is also one of the best when it comes to racing and overtaking.
In stark contrast to last time out in Monaco the Canadian GP has good opportunities for wheel to wheel action and overtakes.
SO HOW DOES CANADA COMPARE FOR OVERTAKES?
The Circuit Gilles Villeneuve has a number of opportunities for overtaking with four braking zones defined as “hard” by brake supplier Brembo – it is the hardest circuit on brakes on the calendar. Following the 2017 Regulation changes the circuit was one of the few to actually have more overtakes last year than in the 2016 race. The 2017 race had 33 overtakes (as defined by our criteria) which compared to an average of 22 over all tracks that year.
It’s hard to forget Jenson Button’s dramatic win in 2011 with McLaren. Having started seventh on the grid JB was last on lap 37 of 70 after his second crash of the race. After a number of safety cars and a red flag (the race lasted a record 4+ hours) JB passed Seb Vettel for the lead on the last lap to take one of the all time great GP wins! Passing is definitely possible in Canada!
SO DOES THAT MEAN QUALIFYING ISN’T IMPORTANT?
Well yes and no! A good qualifying result is still important in Canada as 48% of winners have started from pole – slightly higher than the average of all tracks. The difference to most tracks though is that 21% of winners in Canada have started from the third row or worse on the grid. Of the current tracks with more than three GP’s to date only Spa has a higher proportion (24%) of winners from 4th or lower on the grid.
Dan Ricciardo’s win in 2014 (the first of his career) after starting from sixth on the grid is a good example of the opportunity for drivers to advance on this fantastic circuit. Perhaps an even better example is Jenson Button’s win from seventh in 2011 – as we mentioned above that was an amazing race!
The lowest grid position to win in Canada was Jacques Laffite who started 10th in 1981 in his Ligier-Matra. That race was a wet one so with showers forecast Sunday the weather could also play a part in mixing up the 2018 race result!
As you will see below Lewis Hamilton is the master of Canada. 2017 was no exception with the Briton starting on pole and leading the entire race for the win (and scoring the trifecta with the fastest lap as well!).
Not so straight forward was Seb Vettel’s race. As you can see from the Race Map above after starting second on the grid he sustained front wing damage and after pitting was last.
Vettel stormed through the field on fresher tyres after Ferrari elected for an alternate two stop strategy and finished just behind Dan Ricciardo in fourth
Lance Stroll became the first Canadian since Jacques Villeneuve to score a point in a GP (Stroll’s first points). Lance had an impressive race starting 17th and bringing his Williams home in ninth place.
WINNERS AND PODIUM RECORDS
Eight of the current drivers have finished on the podium in Canada though there is clearly one standout – Lewis Hamilton. Of his 10 starts Lewis has won six times and finished third on one occasion.
As has been the case for every track visited so far this season the qualifying lap record was set in 2017 – this time by Lewis Hamilton who we shall see has been imperious in Canada.
Ferrari’s Rubens Barrichello holds the race lap record in Canada. This is a break from the trend we’ve seen to date where lap records have generally been held by the Brazilian’s seven times World Champion team mate Michael Schumacher from the same year.
Qualifying
Race
Difference
2017
1:11.459 (HAM)
1:14.551 (HAM)
-0:03.092
Record
1:11.459 (2017 HAM)
1:13.622 (2004 BAR)
-0:02.163
WHO HAS THE QUALIFYING EDGE IN CANADA?
Both Mercedes drivers have excellent quali track biases in Canada while the Ferrari drivers have both found it harder here. Riccardo and Verstappen have also fared well in qualifying on this circuit historically.
The two stand out stats are Hamilton and Raikkonen. Lewis has been an exceptional qualifyer in Canada on average starting over two places higher up the grid than his career average. Valteri Bottas has an even better quali bias than Lewis in Canada so the Mercs are going to take some beating to pole. In contrast Kimi hasn’t performed well – qualifying over a full grid position worse on average in his 12 starts in Canada versus his career average.
Three of the current drivers have held pole at the Circuit Gilles Villeneuve – Hamilton, Vettel and Alonso. Fernando has traditionally preformed very well in qualifying being averaging two places higher on the grid here than his career average. Be that as it may there will likely need to be some extraordinary circumstances for the McLaren to challenge Lewis and Seb.
Circuit Gilles Villeneuve
Career
Driver
2017
Best
Ave
Starts
Best
Ave
Starts
Bias
HAM
1
1
1.7
10
1
3.8
214
-2.1
VET
2
1
5.6
9
1
4.8
204
0.8
BOT
3
3
4.2
5
1
7.5
104
-3.3
RAI
4
3
7.4
12
1
6.2
248
1.2
RIC
6
4
8.2
6
1
9.1
134
-0.9
VER
5
5
7.3
3
2
7.6
66
-0.3
PER
8
8
11.5
6
2
11.0
141
0.5
OCO
9
9
9
1
5
12.6
34
-3.6
SAI
13
11
13.3
3
5
11.3
65
2
HUL
10
7
10.4
7
1
10.0
142
0.4
STR
17
17
17
1
4
15.3
26
1.7
GRO
14
5
12.3
6
2
11.7
130
0.6
MAG
18
12
15
2
4
13.4
66
1.6
ALO
12
1
5.5
14
1
7.5
282
-2
VAN
16
16
16
1
7
13.3
27
2.7
GAS
–
–
–
–
6
14.8
10
–
ERI
19
13
18
4
10
17.9
81
0.1
HAR
–
–
–
–
11
16.3
10
–
RACE RESULTS: LEWIS HAMILTON DOMINATES CANADA
Of the current drivers Lewis Hamilton has been the standout performer in Canada with a stunning six victories from his ten starts including having won the last three. With a total of seven wins the great Michael Schumacher is the only driver to have had more Canadian GP victories than Lewis. The odds look to be with the Brit to equal Schumacher’s record in 2018.
Hamilton’s dominance is reflected in his race result track bias of finishing 2.3 places better than his overall career average. With an average finishing position of 1.3 after 10 starts Lewis will undoubtedly be the odds on favorite with bookies going into this weekend’s race.
Esteban Ocon also deserves a mention with his sixth place finish from his one and only start in Canada. This was 4.7 places better than his overall career average to date.
Romain Grosjean remains pointless in the Championship after six races – the longest dry spell in his career. With Kevin Magnussen leading the Frenchman 5:1 in their head to head this season RoGro will be desperate to make use of his slightly more favourable race result bias in Canada.
Circuit Gilles Villeneuve
Career
Track
Driver
2017
Best
Ave
Sts
%Fin
Best
Ave
Sts
%Fin
Bias
HAM
1
1
1.3
10
70
1
3.6
214
89
-2.3
VET
4
1
3.7
9
100
1
3.9
205
86
-0.2
BOT
2
2
5.8
5
100
1
7.2
104
91
-1.4
RAI
7
1
5.5
14
93
1
5.0
279
78
0.5
RIC
3
1
8.8
6
100
1
8.1
135
85
0.7
VER
–
4
9.5
3
67
1
6.3
66
76
3.2
PER
5
3
8.5
6
100
2
9.2
142
88
-0.7
OCO
6
6
6
1
100
5
10.7
35
91
-4.7
SAI
–
9
10.5
3
67
4
9.6
66
71
0.9
HUL
8
5
9
7
86
4
9.5
143
80
-0.5
STR
9
9
9
1
100
3
11.7
26
85
-2.7
GRO
10
2
9.8
6
83
2
10.4
130
73
-0.6
MAG
12
9
12.3
3
100
2
11.4
67
82
0.9
ALO
16
1
6.1
15
60
1
5.6
299
82
0.5
VAN
14
14
14
1
100
7
11.4
27
74
2.6
GAS
–
–
–
–
–
4
12.1
11
82
–
ERI
13
13
14
4
75
8
14.3
82
76
-0.3
HAR
–
–
–
–
–
10
14.6
10
70
–
WHAT TO LOOK OUT FOR
Following his dominant weekend in Monaco Daniel Ricciardo will be keen to cement his current third place in the Championship standings. This task will be made more difficult by the near certainty that he will be taking grid penalties in Canada. As we’ve seen though, it’s certainly possible to climb back through the field here and Ricciardo is arguably the best overtaker in the business.
Can anyone stop Lewis Hamilton? With six wins to date at this circuit he is a master in Montreal. It will be hard to stop Lewis extending his 14 point lead in the Championship but as we’ve seen all season it’s very close at the top.
